NFL Week 9 Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Raiders vs Jaguars, Dolphins vs Bears, More
Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago Bears.
NFL Odds & Picks
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Billy Ward: As I’ve touched on in past columns, the recent change to the pricing of this prop by BetMGM is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, there’s less opportunity in lower total games to take advantage of the flat pricing. On the other, when we have higher total games we get a slightly bigger edge.
For this game, I looked at my dataset for games with a total between 45 and 50, with a spread of 2.5 or less. In those games, either team scores three in a row roughly 60% of the time.
That means the “No” side of this bet should be priced at about +150, giving us an edge close to five percent. If betting this one, I’d also take the same bet on Seahawks–Cardinals, which has a similar spread and total.
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Nick Giffen: The Falcons attempt field goals at the sixth-highest rate above expectation, according to my fourth-down model.
Koo’s only field goal miss at home this season was a blocked 63-yard attempt. He’s gone over 1.5 field goals in three of four home games this season and 18 of 24 during his three-plus seasons with the Falcons.
I project him to go over this total 51.5% of the time, so getting plus money here is nice. I’d bet this down to +110.
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Billy Ward: While I understand the hesitancy around this line — given the Packers' offensive struggles — this one feels like a no-brainer. The Lions have allowed just over 32 points per game this season, while scoring nearly 35 themselves.
Those are their overall stats, with the numbers getting even better on games at Ford Field. There, the Lions average north of 35 points per game while allowing over 36. While some of that is noise, the fact that they play on turf and inside certainly helps.
Detroit should also have Amon-Ra St. Brown and De’Andre Swift at close to full strength, raising the floor of its offense. Green Bay will have no trouble scoring, so as long as Detroit does enough to keep the Packers attacking, this one should go over easily.
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Sean Koerner: Matt Eberflus has stayed true to his word in going with the “hot hand” at RB over the past few weeks, as Khalil Herbert has seen his rushing share go up in each of the past four games.
Herbert continues to outplay David Montgomery as 18.7% of his rush attempts have gone for 10-plus yards. Herbert, who also benefits from the threat Justin Fields provides as a runner, has a no-nonsense style on the ground and he is able to find holes that defenses provide.
The Dolphins have been stout against the run, but they will have their hands full with the Fields/Herbert combo. Safety Jevon Holland has been burned by opposing RBs a few times this year after taking the wrong angle of attack.
This whiff against Dalvin Cook (0:13 in the clip below) is the perfect example of what I’m referring to, and these are the type of run plays we have seen from Herbert time and time again this year.
.@dalvincook knows how to score a TD in Miami 🤩
Let’s take a look back at all his touchdowns against the Dolphins over the years 👇 pic.twitter.com/1nacZFIUKT
— Minnesota Vikings UK (@UKVikings) October 18, 2022
I’m projecting Herbert closer to 45.5 yards as I think he will continue to see 30-35% of Chicago’s rush attempts.
Based on sharp action in this game and our Luck Rankings indicating the Bears are likely to keep this close, it should help ensure he sees enough carries to clear this number. I would bet it up to 39.5.
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Sean Koerner: With J.D. McKissic ruled out, Antonio Gibson should see an uptick in routes. He’s seen a target on 44% of his routes with Taylor Heinicke under center the last two games. That’s an unsustainable number, but he should still dominate passing-down usage.
It’s also a plus matchup as he faces a Vikings defense that uses zone coverage at the second-highest rate. Gibson’s yards per route run (Y/RR) increases from 1.79 against man to 2.26 against zone. I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 yards.
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