NFL Wild Card Odds, Picks: Bets for Every Game, Every Team

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Wild Card odds, picks and bets for every game and every team as we preview the first weekend of the 2024 NFL playoffs.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team, capped by my full betting card at the bottom of this article.

NFL Wild Card Odds, Picks: Bets for Every Game, Every Team

Key Wild Card Round Trends to Know

Before we get started with NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, there's a few key trends you should know because they'll come up often, and they have to do with postseason experience — both at quarterback and for the teams that played or didn't play in the playoffs a year ago.

1. Quarterbacks making their first career postseason start against a quarterback with playoff experience are just 17-35-1 against the spread (33% ATS) and about the same straight up (17-36, 32%) since 2002. In other words, the QB making his postseason debut loses and fails to cover about two out of every three times.

Quarterbacks and teams to be a bit wary of this week: C.J. Stroud (Houston), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami), Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh), and Jordan Love (Green Bay).

2a. In the Wild Card Round, home teams that made last year's playoffs facing an opponent that missed the postseason last year are 26-15-3 ATS (63%) over the last two decades. Makes sense, right? Teams that made the playoffs last year and then won their divisions this year were expected to be contenders! Wild Card teams that didn't make the playoffs but snuck in this year were not.

That trend favors Buffalo and Dallas this year. On the other hand…

2b. In the Wild Card Round the last two decades, home teams that missed last year's playoffs are just 13-29 ATS (31%). These are your surprise division winners that took big steps forward and might have already peaked, or maybe lucked into a few easy wins or a soft division.

Those teams have proven to be overrated in this opening round. This year, that means be wary of Houston and Detroit.

Those trends certainly don't tell the whole story, but they set the stage well. Let's get to the picks…

Browns vs Texans Odds, Picks

• The injury report is a bit scary for both sides. Houston's entire defensive line is listed as questionable. That includes DROY candidate Will Anderson and run stuffer Jonathan Greenard at edge, along with Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins out at DT. Cleveland mostly rested last week but saw a practice injury for top CB Denzel Ward that leaves him questionable. The Browns could also be without both top safeties with Grant Delpit out and Juan Thornhill questionable. PK Dustin Hopkins is out too, which is always worrying in what could be a close game late.
• The Texans are a double fade based on those experience trends at the top. Rookie C.J. Stroud is obviously making his playoff debut, and QBs like that are 17-35-1 ATS (33%) against veteran playoff performers like Joe Flacco. Houston is also a home Wild Card Round team that missed last year's playoffs, and teams like that are 13-29 ATS (31%) the last two decades.
• Cleveland comes in with a real rest advantage after sitting most key starters last week. Houston is riding an emotional high after stealing the division (Texans Island, baby!!) and does get an extra day of rest since it played Saturday, but it has effectively played two straight lose-or-go-home games already.
• These teams played less than a month ago on Christmas Eve, and Cleveland rolled to a 36-7 lead before garbage time. Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper had monster days, but C.J. Stroud was out and the Texans played their second- and third-string quarterbacks so it's tough to put much stock in that one.

• The game's strongest unit is the Browns defense while the weakest is the Browns offense, but both units have regressed toward the mean down the stretch. Cleveland's defense ranks just eighth by DVOA over the last six games and hasn't been the same since Myles Garrett picked up some injuries, and the defense hasn't been quite as good on the road this season. The offense has trended up with Joe Flacco slinging it all over the place, though not as much as the media might have you think — still just above the bottom 10 since Flacco joined the team. Cleveland games are averaging 53 PPG since Flacco joined — showing both the offensive improvement and defensive decline.
• The defensive lines will likely tell the story of the game, and that's what makes this one so hard to predict since Houston's entire dominant line is listed as questionable while Garrett is playing hurt but just got that week off. These are two of the top four run defenses by DVOA — though Houston's run defense relies heavily on Greenard and Anderson — so don't expect much rushing success. That could mean advantage Cleveland, since the Browns have veered extremely pass-happy with Flacco while Bobby Slowik's Houston offense has been far too run-heavy and conservative on early downs.
• Can Jim Schwartz and that nasty Browns front seven get pressure on C.J. Stroud? That could tell the story of the game. Stroud's numbers drop precipitously when he's off rhythm, but the Texans had a top-five passing DVOA with Stroud healthy this season, so he could pick apart this banged-up Browns secondary if he gets time. Star LT Laremy Tunsil has notably had a lot of success against Garrett.

David Njoku might be the biggest beneficiary since Flacco joined the team. Flacco has long preferred throwing to his tight ends, and Njoku has seen a huge leap in production with Flacco. In their last four games together, Njoku has recorded 28 catches for 373 yards and four TDs, averaging seven receptions and 93 yards a game.

Houston allowed more receptions to tight ends than any team this season, and the Texans allowed the fifth most yards. This looks like a prime spot to back Njoku, who had six catches for 44 yards and a score in that game against the Texans already on Christmas Eve. I don't mind going over 5.5 receptions (+100, FanDuel) or playing an Anytime TD (+200, bet365), but I like receiving yards best since he can bust a long one over the middle even without racking up catches or finding the end zone.

Njoku has at least 91 yards in three of his last four with Flacco, so this line definitely feels low. So does 100+ yards at +600 (bet365), if you'd like a playoff escalator.

Flacco absolutely shredded this defense in the first matchup, with 368 yards and three TDs, including 11/265/2 to Amari Cooper. You better believe that's first on DeMeco Ryans' priority list this week. But Flacco did throw two interceptions too, and he's actually thrown at least one pick in all five starts for the Browns since coming out of retirement midseason.

Flacco has nine interceptions in nine career playoff games with 30+ pass attempts, and he's thrown the ball at least 42 times in all but one of his starts for Cleveland (I like Flacco over 36.5). With that sort of volume, and as aggressive as Flacco has been, Houston will have some chances to make game-changing plays on defense. Derek Stingley Jr. picked off Flacco last time and has five interceptions in the last eight games.

Cleveland's defense will surely make some big plays this game, so Houston's defense probably needs to do the same thing to contend. Flacco is +280 to throw 2+ interceptions at bet365, a natural escalator if one is effectively the floor.

I strongly considered Nico Collins overs here, too. In four games with Stroud since the Tank Dell injury, Collins has 9/191/1, 4/18/1, 7/80, and 9/195/1, while averaging 7.3 catches and posting two performances near 200 yards. He's over 71.5 receiving yards in eight of 13 games with Stroud, and it's hard to see Houston winning if Collins is under that, but be careful — the Browns allowed only two WRs all season to catch at least six passes!

You know I will be rooting for Texans Island after backing them all season, but I can't make up my mind on a side here. I do think the value is on Houston with the public just a little too confident in Cleveland's fading defense and some small-sample Flacco success, but all those injury unknowns and the inexperience factor give me pause.

If I had to play a side, I'd lean Texans ML +115. Cleveland's defense hasn't faced a ton of great quarterbacks this season, and it allowed 27 to Trevor Lawrence, 28 and 31 to Lamar Jackson, and 36 to Matthew Stafford when it did. Stroud may not have officially played an NFL playoff game, but he was pretty special in a de facto playoff game last week and was electric in the College Football Playoff too. Houston has been a slow starter but great in the fourth quarter, so I might nibble a live ML at a long line if Cleveland's up early.

Instead, I'll mostly watch and enjoy the start of the playoffs, but I do want to get in on the Njoku prop for a line that looks 10 or 15 yards too low. This is a tasty matchup and Flacco's passing will either be the reason Cleveland is ahead or what they'll be doing even more of from behind.

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Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

• If you’re wondering why you can’t find this game on any TV channel, that’s because it’s the first ever NFL playoff game to air exclusively on Peacock, NBC’s streaming service. Don’t shoot the messenger.
• The Chiefs should have a massive health and rest advantage. Kansas City mostly rested last week while Miami played a high leverage game on Sunday night, and the Dolphins have the worst injury report of any team. Miami is missing its top three pass rushers and could see a compromised secondary with Xavien Howard out and safeties Jevon Holland and DeShone Elliott both questionable. The Dolphins are also missing two offensive line starters, and pretty much all of those speedy Miami weapons are banged up, with Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert questionable.
• It will be COLD Saturday night in Kansas City. Game-time temperatures could be below zero with winds in the teens in what's projected to be the fourth coldest game in NFL history. There's very little data for games this cold, though it's notable that the four games in Adam Schefter's tweet averaged 33.5 PPG and topped out at 43 points. Tua Tagovailoa grew up in Hawaii and has played at Alabama and Miami since. The coldest game he's ever won was 48 degrees on Black Friday — and this could be a full 50 degrees colder.
• Miami has lost nine straight games with temperatures under 40 degrees since 2017, though that's a small sample with an arbitrary cutoff and may not mean much. More notable trends: the Dolphins were 1-5 against playoff teams this season with a -91 point differential (only the Commanders and Giants were worse), and Miami was a great front runner at 9-2 ATS as a favorite but terrible as an underdog at 1-5 ATS. This is also Tagovailoa's first playoff start, since he was hurt last January.
• This is Tyreek Hill's first time returning to Kansas City since leaving the Chiefs. Expect that to be a major story all game, though he's not fully healthy and the Chiefs have been good against WR1s.

• Kansas City's offensive line ranked first in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate, and Miami's top three pass rushers are out so the Dolphins were literally signing up edge rushers off the street this week. Miami's offensive line is banged up and ranks second to last in that metric, so Chris Jones could have a big game and disrupt Miami's timing. The Chiefs should be able to dominate the trenches, and that's especially important in a cold-weather game.
• Kansas City's defense was outstanding early in the season but has faded late, now bottom 10 by DVOA over the last six weeks and near the bottom of the league against the run. If Miami hangs or wins, the run game will almost certainly be the reason. The Dolphins have had elite rushing metrics, especially if they can get outside the tackles, and the Chiefs prefer to run in the middle where Miami's D is stout.
• The Dolphins defense was bad early, and then rounded into form midseason when Jalen Ramsey returned, but faded again late with all the injuries. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league against WR1s and TEs and on short passes and in the red zone. For a Chiefs offense built around short passes to red zone monster Travis Kelce and emerging WR1 Rashee Rice, that could mean easy pickings.
• The Chiefs should have a huge special teams advantage, especially in kicking and kick coverage.

If you've been reading all season, this is a pretty common pick for Miami — because it's been mispriced all year and keeps hitting week after week.

Miami is going to need to score some points to beat Patrick Mahomes on the road, and the Dolphins run game looks like the biggest advantage, especially in the freezing cold. Raheem Mostert isn't fully healthy but he's been a star for this offense, and he's also the guy near the goal line. He's scored at least one touchdown in 12 of 15 games for an 80% hit rate. That should imply -400, not the 38.5% implied by +160 at FanDuel.

Kansas City has only allowed six rushing TDs but did allow four through the air and Mostert can score that way too. I lean under on this game and don't see many Miami TDs, but even so, +1300 for two Mostert TDs is an absurd number the way he's scored this season. He has multiple TDs in six of 15 games (40%). There is much better than a 7.1% chance he scores twice, so ride the Mostert escalator one more time at +1300 (FanDuel).

This looks like a dream matchup between two great offenses, but only if you haven't been paying attention. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense haven't looked right all season and Chiefs games are 12-5 to the under and averaging just 39.1 PPG, with the Chiefs scoring 21 or less in 10 games. The Dolphins have obviously put up some huge numbers but went under the posted 43.5 total in three of the last four games with colder temperatures and injuries slowing things down.

Wild Card Round games in non-division matchups with a total 41 or higher are 29-9 to the under (76%) over the past two decades. Kansas City's offense has been worse at home by DVOA, and its defense has been significantly better at 5th versus 17th on the road.

But the Chiefs have also been better scoring early, and Miami's defense ranks 30th by DVOA in the first half. Perhaps that's why Miami first-half overs are 12-5 on the season. Believe it or not, both defenses rank bottom half of the league in the fourth quarter. I like the full-game under too, but I'll duck a possible fast start and play just the second-half under 21.5 in what looks like a slow, turgid wintery game.

Chiefs second half unders were an unbelievable 15-2 for the season. This was one of the best plays on the board all year.

I'm betting both ways. My strongest angle on the game is the under, and I like isolating just the second half, or you can wait and bet a live under if you like. These teams played in Germany in November and scored just 35 points, and the game hit both sides of this with Mostert scoring a TD but the game going way under, with just 14 in the second half. Mostert can score even if the game stays under.

I would love a healthy Miami on a neutral field here and have a very hard time getting to Kansas City -4.5, but the barrage of injuries and subzero temperatures are terrifying for the Dolphins. It's too easy for me to imagine Tagovailoa and those Miami speedsters shivering in giant coats on the sidelines, just packing it in, ready to go home after a nightmare ending to their season. I'll stay away from a side, but if I had to pick something, Miami +190 on the moneyline just seems too long as blah as the Chiefs have played all season.

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Steelers vs Bills Odds, Picks

• The weather report for this game was disastrous, so bad that the NFL ended up moving the game at the last second. For now, it looks like the game will be played Monday at 4:30pm ET on CBS.
• So what’s it mean for the cap here? I still love Buffalo, as you’ll see below — and honestly, I like them even better in less chaotic weather since it removes goofy variables and just lets the far better team be better, plus it’s more time for the Bills to get guys like Douglas and Dodson back out there.
• I still lean under as well on trends, though you should wait on a pick there with the line moving around since it initially dropped a TD with the bad weather and got as low as 33 at some books.
• Overall this change doesn’t really impact my cap on the game, but it could be pretty damaging for Buffalo futures since the Bills may end up playing next week on at least a two-day rest disadvantage, and the disadvantage only compounds going forward.
• We’ll post more updates here as needed.

What you need to know:

• The weather report for this game is disastrous. Forecasts expect freezing temperatures in the low 20s or below with sustained winds in the 20-to-25 MPH range and gusts up to twice that, plus a significant chance of snow and maybe a lot of it with lake-effect conditions. The total opened at 43 on Sunday but has dropped a full touchdown with the weather report.
• Since the postseason expanded, 7-seeds have yet to win a playoff game. They're 2-4 ATS and 0-6 SU, with two losses by a field goal and four others by 12, 16, 18, and 21, and an average loss of 12.2 PPG. Home favorites of 9+ points are 9-1 ATS (90%) in the Wild Card Round the last two decades.
• Pittsburgh fits both inexperience red flags at the top of the article. QBs making their first playoff start against experienced QBs are 17-35-1 ATS (33%), and teams that missed last year's playoffs hitting the road in the Wild Card Round against a team that made last year's postseason are 9-21-1 ATS (30%).

• There's no more important injury loss this weekend than T.J. Watt, maybe the most valuable defensive player in the league to his team. Watt led the league in sacks, and the Steelers lead the league in sacks with Watt on the field the last six seasons, but he's out with a knee injury suffered last week. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU without Watt since he joined the team, and the defense has absolutely cratered without him. Two seasons ago, the defense dropped from 13th to 30th by DVOA in two games without Watt. Last season, Watt missed seven games and Pittsburgh's defense dropped from second-best with Watt to second-worst without him, going 1-6.
• Outside of Watt, the injury report probably favors Pittsburgh. The Steelers get safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee back, while Buffalo will be without WR Gabriel Davis and S Taylor Rapp and may see limited action from CB Rasul Douglas and LB Tyrell Dodson.
• Buffalo's defense bottomed out midseason but bounced back in a big way, finishing sixth by DVOA over the final six games as the Bills made their big playoff push. The run defense has struggled at times and that could be an area for Pittsburgh to attack with its improved rushing attack down the stretch, but the pass defense is alive and well and playing great ball again.

How is Pittsburgh going to move the ball or score? The Mason Rudolph thing was super cute against bad Seattle and Cincinnati defenses, but it was ugly against Baltimore's reserves and the Steelers have scored 18 or less 10 times already this season, including the entire final eight games outside of those Seahawks and Bengals games.

Buffalo's defense is playing well and better at home, and the ugly weather will only limit scoring further. Pittsburgh has been settling for field goals, and that may not be an option in the whipping winds. Outdoor, non-division Wild Card Round games with a total 41 or above are 29-9 to the under (76%) the last two decades, and Mike Tomlin road unders are 83-61-1 for his career (58%), the most profitable coach in our system.

Don't be daunted by the low total. Games with a total of 37 or below are 34-12-1 to the under (74%) since November 2019. If the Steelers have any chance of making it a game, they'll have to keep it low and close, the Tomlin way.

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Packers vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• • • There are key names on the injury report for both sides. A.J. Dillon is doubtful for the Packers and expected to miss, while Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander are questionable, the latter with an injury he picked up in practice this week. Alexander would be missed dearly in a matchup against CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys' top corner is also in some doubt, though Stephon Gilmore and G Tyler Smith made progress this week and appear likely to give it a go. Dallas's offensive line has been quite banged up.
    • The Packers come in with an experience deficit. Wild Card Round hosts that made last year's playoffs are 21-9-1 ATS (70%) against teams that missed the postseason like the Packers. Jordan Love makes his playoff debut, and debut QBs against experienced QBs are 17-35-1 ATS (33%). The Packers are the fifth youngest playoff team since the merger.
    • We've yet to see a 7-seed win a playoff game since the postseason format expanded, with 7-seeds owning records of 2-4 ATS and 0-6 SU, while losing by an average of 12.2 PPG. Be careful, though: Matt LaFleur is 20-9 ATS (69%) as an underdog, and the Cowboys are the least profitable playoff team in the NFL the last two decades at 3-9-1 ATS (25%). That includes 0-3 ATS as a favorite of four or more with one four-point win and two losses, all at home. Could the Cowboys disappoint yet again?

• • • The Packers offense may be just as dangerous as the Cowboys at this point. Green Bay actually finished the season ranked higher than Dallas by DVOA on offense and was hotter down the stretch. Dak Prescott has been the most efficient QB in football by many metrics and would be my MVP pick, but Jordan Love came on very strong the second half of the season. He improved from second-worst to second-best CPOE from Week 9 forward and finished top three in both EPA per play and PFF grade.
    • The offenses may be fairly even, but Green Bay's defense is by far the worst unit on the field.The Packers finished 27th by DVOA defensively, bottom quarter of the league against both the run and the pass. The Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb connection has been unstoppable at times and should have its way with this defense, especially if Jaire Alexander is out. Dallas has also improved its rushing attack and is elite rushing up the middle where the Packers haven't stopped opponents for years, so the Cowboys offense may get anything it wants.
    • Mike McCarthy will be a topic of conversation after winning a Super Bowl with the Packers, and Matt LaFleur is a clear advantage at head coach, but I think the real coach of note is Green Bay DC Joe Barry. Barry might be the worst coordinator in the NFL. His vanilla schemes are easily beatable, and he struggles to adjust, making Green Bay's defense vulnerable at all times.

The Packers still have one Aaron, and he's been the key to this offense for years. Aaron Jones had a great season opener but left hurt, missed time and struggled after returning, but finally rounded back into form late in the season — with an arc much like the Packers offense, by no coincidence. Jones has run at least 20 times for at least 111 yards in each of the past three games for Green Bay.

The Packers will want to establish the run by giving Jones plenty of touches. That should settle Love in his debut and open up the play-action game, and it also keeps Green Bay's defense off the field and attacks the weak point of this Cowboys team, its inconsistent run defense. If the Packers hang around or pull the upset, Jones will likely be a huge part of the game plan.

You can bet Jones to go over 16.5 rushing attempts with Dillon likely out, but that could be in peril if Green Bay falls behind and has to pass. The rushing yards over looks better since he's cleared the number by so much lately, and +270 for 100+ yards (FanDuel) is a nice escalator if you like Green Bay to compete.

The Packers defense is by far the worst unit in this matchup, and Dallas's offense should have its way. The Cowboys offense has been better at home, ranked 6th by DVOA versus 19th on the road, and Green Bay's defense is ripe for the picking, vulnerable to both the run and the pass. Dak Prescott should chew this defense up on third downs, and Joe Barry might get fired on Monday morning (a season or two too late).

Dallas is a tremendous front runner. The defense gets to pin its ears back and get after the quarterback, creating sacks and turnovers, and that sets up the Cowboys for short fields and easy points. The Cowboys also have a huge special teams advantage, a top 10 unit featuring a huge weapon in PK Brandon Aubrey while the Packers rank second to last by DVOA.

I lean Cowboys -7. But that's still -7.5 at some books and that's a key number plus a hook, and Dallas's defense has some vulnerabilities and might leave the back door open given the way Love and the Packers offense are playing. Dallas probably has to score 30 to cover the number anyway, so let's leave Green Bay's offense out of it and just bet on Cowboys points.

Dallas has scored at least 30 in 10 of its 12 wins this season. The Cowboys' playoff history this century is troubling — enough to push me off the spread and toward the team total here on a hunch — but Dallas has repeatedly proven it's not that team this season.

Nine of Dallas's 12 wins this season have come by 20 points. We've got a high total and I expect the Cowboys to put up a big, crooked number and mostly control a high-scoring game.

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Rams vs Lions Odds, Picks

• • • There's no shortage of story lines to watch here, as Matt Stafford and Jared Goff face off against their old teams. It's Stafford's first trip back to Detroit after spending most of his career there, and it's a possible revenge game for Goff after Sean McVay and the Rams discarded him — rightfully so, since LA won a Super Bowl — for Stafford. Will McVay know just how to attack Goff's weaknesses and be proven right, or will Ben Johnson's offense play to Goff's strengths and have some answers?
    • This looks like the cleanest injury report of the weekend since both teams got to play some backups last week, but Detroit picked up two Week 18 injuries that loom large for this offense. Sam LaPorta looks very questionable after a breakout rookie season at TE, and speedy Kalif Raymond is in doubt too, potentially leaving the Lions very shorthanded on weapons to stretch the field.
    • In the Wild Card Round, home teams that missed last postseason are just 13-29 ATS (31%) over the past two decades. These are often teams that saw big improvements or surprised this season in softer divisions, earning a home game but proving vulnerable once the records reset to 0-0 in the playoffs.

• • • The Rams have been one of the league's hottest teams down the stretch once the four stars on the offense finally got healthy and on the field together. LA went 7-1 after the bye with only one loss, in overtime to the Ravens, and the offense ranked second by DVOA behind only the 49ers.
    • Both run defenses are playing great. Detroit finished the season ranked first by DVOA, and the Rams came on strong down the stretch. These teams allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs in the NFL. Both teams love to run to set up the pass, and those strong run defenses will likely mean this game is decided by the passing game — which means it really might just come down to Stafford versus Goff.
    • The biggest strength for the Rams defensively is of course Aaron Donald, and rookie Kobie Turner has finished the year strong next to him. Detroit has the best offensive line in the league but has been banged up and a bit vulnerable in the middle, so that could be a weak point.

LA's offense has been borderline unstoppable with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua on the field together. In eight games with that quartet healthy, the Rams rank second in DVOA and average 28.5 PPG, with at least 26 points in seven of the eight games. In the last six games of the season before resting in the finale, that jumped to 31.3 PPG and they went over this total in every game.

Detroit's defense is seriously flawed and has been gashed at times, especially against top offenses like the Rams. The Lions have allowed at least 24 points in over half their games. The total here is 51.5 and rising, and this game sure looks like it will see plenty of points. I think the Rams might end up the highest scoring team of the weekend (+900, FanDuel), and they're my pick as the most likely lower seed to win.

Play over 22.5 at -120 at bet365 if you can, but otherwise 23.5 or 24.5 are okay as well.

The Lions offense has been terrific but could be low on options. I don't expect LaPorta or Raymond to play much of a role, if any, and Detroit's rushing attack could be limited by a solid Rams run defense. But there's not really much way to take Amon-Ra St. Brown out of the game flow, and nobody knows that as well as the Rams, since St. Brown is effectively built to play the role that Cooper Kupp has mastered.

St. Brown always seems to be open. He scored a touchdown in seven of his last nine games, and he finished the season with 119 receptions and 1,515 yards. Most of those catches were short, in the flow of things for Goff, and he's the security blanket in this offense. St. Brown has gone over this number in four straight games and 11 of 16 on the season (69%), averaging 94.7 YPG. That's about where I'd make this line, and this play feels somewhat matchup proof since the Lions will either lead by passing or throw from behind.

I played Rams +3.5 on the Hot Read and still lean heavily in LA's direction — I honestly think the Rams might be better on offense and defense right now — but we grabbed that one early specifically because of the hook at +3.5, which has now dropped to the key number of +3. I still don't mind that play but am pivoting to the team total since that way we don't have to worry about how much Detroit scores.

If the Rams do score, Kyren Williams will be the most likely guy to find the end zone, like usual. He's scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games for LA this season, a 75% hit rate that would imply -300 for an Anytime TD. We get -137 instead at Caesars, so I'll play that one too. Williams has multiple TDs in nearly half his games (five of 12), so let's ride the escalator too at +400 for 2+ scores (FanDuel), though just a sprinkle since Detroit's run defense is so tough.

I think the Rams win outright. If they do, it only makes sense to sprinkle LA at +900 to score the most points of the weekend as well.

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Eagles vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks

• • • The injury report for Philadelphia is long and quite uncertain, and we may not get much clarity until we see the Eagles on the field. Jalen Hurts has a middle finger injury on this throwing hand. He's expected to play but didn't throw all week until Friday, and there's no telling how that could impact his grip, his ability to run or the Tush Push. A.J. Brown has been limited with a knee injury that he picked up in Week 18, and DeVonta Smith remains limited as well. This is a top-heavy offense so any name out is a big deal. Smith looks more likely to play than Brown for now. Philadelphia will also be without S Sydney Brown and maybe S Reed Blankenship, though it does look like CB Darius Slay will return.
    • Baker Mayfield will play, but his health has been creaky to finish the season too. He's playing through rib and ankle injuries and has looked the part as Tampa Bay's offense struggled mightily the last couple games. He'll certainly start, but will he finish, and will he be effective?
    • Weather could be a factor, but it's hard to tell how much. Early reports called for winds in the teens and a 33% chance of rain, but the latest reports look a bit cleaner. Something to keep an eye on.
    • These teams played way back in Week 3, and it was a snoozer. Philadelphia led 25-3 until a garbage-time touchdown, nearly doubling the Bucs in time of possession and tripling them in yardage — but Week 3 was a long time ago, and Philadelphia is staggering into the playoffs.

• • • Just how bad have the Eagles been down the stretch? Philadelphia ranks 29th by DVOA over the last six games — that's more than a third of the season! — with both the rushing and passing attack below average and a defense ranked bottom two against the run and pass and overall. The Bucs rank 10th by DVOA during that same stretch, including sixth defensively and first against the run. There's zero question about which team has been playing better lately.
    • Jalen Hurts has seriously struggled against Todd Bowles in his career. In three games against Bowles, he's thrown just three touchdowns with five interceptions, to go along with at least one pick in every game. He's completed under 55% of his passes against Bowles and has barely cleared 200 YPG. Philadelphia has struggled against pressure this season, and Bowles loves to dial up heat.
    • The Eagles are built to dominate the trenches and should have a major advantage both ways. Tampa Bay ranks dead last by Run Block Win Rate and bottom 10 for Pass Blocking. The Bucs rushing attack has been disastrous and prefers to run up the middle, which they do around 70% of the time, and that's one area where the Eagles have been stout all season. Will Bucs OC Dave Canales abandon the run? Is Mayfield healthy enough to sling it all game?
    • Philadelphia led the league in special teams by DVOA, and the Bucs rank near the bottom of the league perenially. The difference is especially stark on punts. The Eagles do a lot of little things to find edges under Nick Sirianni, and those edges add up in close games.

Tampa Bay's defense has been outstanding down the stretch (see above), and Philadelphia's offense has been average at best. Add in Hurts' history against Bowles plus the injury and I don't see many Eagles points. Philadelphia's defense has been a disaster, but I'm not sure the Bucs can take advantage. Tampa Bay is 11-6 to the under, and Bucs games are at 44 or below in all but four games this season.

A flurry of trends point under too. Games with a home underdog have gone under 60% of the time the last three seasons, and primetime unders are 60% the last five years, including 65% this season. Outdoor Wild Card Round non-division games with a total 41 or above are also 29-9 to the under (76%), and Baker Mayfield games are 24-11 to the under (69%) when the total is set below 44.

There are so many paths for this game to go under. Weather could be a factor, and the injury report is certainly in favor of the under with both quarterbacks badly banged up and playing poorly of late. The Eagles could struggle to score if Hurts is limited or either of their WRs can't play, and the Bucs won't put up many points if Mayfield can't get the ball to his talented receivers.

I'm all-in on the under here, and you can see my case for the full game under 43.5 in the Bucs section. If you want to isolate to just one half, go with the first half.

Philadelphia's defense actually ranks top 10 by DVOA in the first quarter before falling off quickly late in games, while the Eagles offense has been far better in the second half at third in DVOA versus 16th in the first half. Tampa Bay's splits lean the same direction, with the offense way worse in the first half (26th vs 9th) and the defense much better (6th vs 24th).

This could be a slog, and I'm expecting a slow start and not many points. Play an under.

This was my first play of the entire weekend and remains my favorite bet. I played the under 45 at open on the Hot Read, and though the total has dropped some, I still like it at 43.5 if necessary.

Totals see key numbers at 40, 41, 43, and 44. So if you waited, you've lost that top end key number but are still ahead of the rest — but don't wait much longer in case the injury news gets worse before kickoff and the number drops even further.

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• David Njoku over 54.5 receiving yards | 100+ yards escalator (+600)
• Dolphins/Chiefs 2H under 21.5
• Raheem Mostert Anytime TD (+160) | 2+ TDs escalator (+1300)
• Bills -9.5
• Cowboys TT over 28.5
• Rams TT over 22.5 | Highest scoring Wild Card Round team (+900)
• Kyren Williams Anytime TD | 2+ TDs escalator (+400)
• Eagles/Rams under 43.5

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