Noah Gray Props: Fade This TE in Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl
Noah Gray #83 of the Kansas City Chiefs (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
- Noah Gray has been a solid backup tight end for the Chiefs this season, but how will he fare in the Super Bowl?
- Gray's receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 ahead of Chiefs vs. Eagles Sunday.
- Alex Kolodziej explains how to bet this player prop below.
Noah Gray Player Props
In an Andy Reid offense, every single player is live to have a banner day.
Let's be completely blunt: Would it be all that surprising for a player like Noah Gray to be the breakout candidate for Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles?
Opportunities might be few and far between playing behind the NFL's best tight end in Travis Kelce. Gray, however, is getting solid run with the Chiefs in his second season.
The 2021 fifth-round pick out of Duke has chipped in with 28 catches for close to 300 yards and a score in 2022.
Those admittedly aren't numbers to drool over, but Gray's worked himself into Kelce's primary backup role, ahead of both Jody Fortson and Blake Bell.
Gray's prop markets are over/under 1.5 catches (+110/-145) and 12.5 yards (-120/-110) at BetMGM. He's also +700 to score a touchdown.
Let's dive into the top value pick vs. the stout Eagles defense.
Betting Picks
The Chiefs could very well fall to the Eagles. It will not be due to involving their star player — and that last word was kept singular for a reason.
Unfortunately for Gray, he's more or less an afterthought behind Kelce, whose postseason usage rate continues surging at a torrid pace as Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 option.
Travis Kelce Targets Per Game
| Year | Regular Season | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8.9 | 12.5 |
| 2021 | 8.3 | 9 |
| 2022 | 9.6 | 13.3 |
Gray, meanwhile, hasn't been the same since peaking from Weeks 6-14. Over that sample alone, he collected 20 of his 28 receptions.
In fact, his production's been ridiculously scarce since Week 15.
Not only has Gray's snap count decreased in every game over the last five, he's been limited to just one target in four of those outings — and that includes the AFC Championship, in which Mahomes lost three pass-catchers mid-game.
Gray could get a red zone look in a funky package, or even record a carry — he has two attempts this season (and a touchdown!) — but ultimately, I like him to sail under his receiving yards total.
The second-year tight end's only been targeted on 13.6% of routes this season, averaging a measly 4.7 yards per target.
We'll fade Gray, who draws an Eagles unit ranking fourth in DVOA against tight ends.
Pick: Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM) | Bet to 12.5 (-115)
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