With the NFL season in full swing, I have a couple of player props for NFL Week 4.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 4, including picks for Vikings vs Steelers, Eagles vs Buccaneers, Titans vs Texans, Panthers vs Patriots and Jaguars vs. 49ers.
NFL Player Props — Week 4
- RB Jaylen Warren Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- WR DeVonta Smith Under 4.5 Receptions (-110, BetMGM)
- RB Woody Marks Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- RB TreVeyon Henderson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125, BetMGM)
- WR Brian Thomas Jr. Over 7.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-117, DraftKings)
Vikings vs Steelers Player Prop: Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren’s role in the Steelers’ backfield continues to trend upward. His snap share has increased every week, and it’s tracked closely with Pittsburgh’s percentage of plays while leading.
As 2.5-point underdogs here, the game script should be fairly neutral, and I’d expect the Steelers to spend more time ahead than the 23.9% of snaps they’ve played with a lead this season — and certainly more than the 10.9% combined in Weeks 1 and 2.
The scheme fit also favors Warren. Since Arthur Smith took over as offensive coordinator in 2024, Warren has logged a 72% to 28% split between zone runs and man/gap concepts.
That matches up well against Minnesota’s defense, which has consistently struggled against zone concepts.
The Vikings allowed opponents 0.58 more yards per carry on zone runs in 2023, 1.43 more in 2024, and so far a whopping 2.49 more this season, giving up 4.75 yards per carry against zone looks.
Warren himself has been more effective in zone, averaging 4.13 YPC compared to 3.35 on man/gap runs since the start of last year.
The Steelers’ offensive line should also benefit from this matchup. Minnesota has allowed 1.89 yards before contact per carry, far worse than Pittsburgh’s first three opponents: Seattle (1.49), the Jets (1.25), and New England (0.39).
Putting it all together, I’m projecting Warren for around 15.5 carries at 4.0 yards per attempt — roughly 62 yards, with a median outcome closer to 59.5.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Eagles vs Buccaneers Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Receptions
When the Eagles’ full trio of pass-catchers — A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert — have all been healthy, Smith has historically struggled to reach volume.
Since the start of last year, in nine such games, he’s averaged 4.44 receptions and has stayed under 4.5 in seven of nine. So even before matchup adjustments, the baseline leans toward the under.
Two key factors strengthen that angle. First, Smith is expected to line up in the slot on 60% or more of his routes, where he’ll draw rookie third-rounder Jacob Parrish.
Despite his inexperience, Parrish has held up well, allowing just seven receptions on eight targets across 94 coverage routes this season.
Second, Tampa Bay’s pass rush is a real problem for Philadelphia here.
In that same nine-game sample with all three weapons healthy, Smith has only seen seven targets across 105 routes when Jalen Hurts faced pressure. Those looks came with a deeper aDOT of 11.2 yards, leading to just four receptions.
With Tampa currently ranked No. 2 in pressure rate over expected, and the Eagles’ offensive line allowing the second-highest rate, Hurts is likely to deal with plenty of heat. That usually leads to more scrambles and longer downfield throws, reducing Smith’s expected catch volume.
I’m projecting Smith closer to 4.1 receptions, with about a 61% chance he stays under 4.5. I wouldn’t play his yardage under, though — if he does make grabs, they’ll likely come on deeper shots given the defensive pressure environment.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Under 4.5 Receptions (-110, BetMGM)
Titans vs Texans Player Prop: Woody Marks Rushing Yards
Marks’ rushing efficiency has been underwhelming to start the season at just 3.7 yards per carry, but this is the spot where he’s most likely to break out.
His first three matchups came against defenses ranked 11th, 1st, and 17th versus man/gap scheme runs — the concept Houston leans on heavily with both Chubb and Marks. Tennessee, by contrast, ranks 29th, giving up 6.23 yards per carry on 39 attempts against man/gap looks.
The gap-specific numbers are even more favorable. Houston’s most productive rushing lane has been through right guard, averaging 7.4 YPC on seven carries.
Tennessee has been shredded there, allowing 9.4 YPC on eight carries — the second-most volume and second-worst efficiency they’ve surrendered by gap.
On top of that, the Titans have allowed 2.67 yards before contact per rush, third-worst in the league and worse than any defense Marks has faced so far.
Volume shouldn’t be an issue regardless of game flow. In a positive script, Marks could see additional carries to help close out the game.
If Houston trails, he’s been on the field for a higher percentage of passing snaps than Chubb, leaving room for an extra draw or handoff or two.
While the Texans have only logged 14 snaps with the lead compared to 104 while trailing this year, the betting market makes them 7.5-point favorites, suggesting a run-heavy script is more likely here.
I’m conservatively projecting Marks for 7.5 carries at 4.25 YPC, about 32 rushing yards, with a 58% chance to clear his current line of 24.5.
I’m fine playing the Over at 25.5 (-111 at DK) or even 26.5 (-105 at ESPN).
Pick: Woody Marks Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Panthers vs Patriots Player Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards
TreVeyon Henderson could be in line for an increase in snaps after both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had fumbles last week.
You have to wonder how long of a leash Stevenson gets, considering fumbling the ball has been his kryptonite throughout his career.
Henderson has the highest targets per route run (TPRR) on the Patriots when QB Drake Maye has a clean pocket, and faces a Carolina defense that's by far last in pressure rate this season.
Not only that, he also has the second-highest TPRR on the Patriots against Cover 3, a defense that the Panthers play second most in all of the NFL.
In two games against other Cover 3-heavy teams (Week 1 vs the Raiders, Week 3 vs Steelers), Henderson has nine catches on nine targets for 43 yards — an average of 4.5 and 21.5 yards per game.
Sure, the Patriots are more likely to be in a run-heavy script here, but even accounting for that, the low pressure and high Cover 3 should drastically help his target share on those pass attempts.
Carolina last season allowed 8.2 yards per catch to running backs, and this season is 6.9 yards per catch — which is in the bottom half of the league. So it shouldn't be much of a problem to reach three catches, and we could even get there on 2.5.
Projecting a median closer to 19.5 receiving yards, each yard is worth around 2.75%. So, over 14.5 at the price of -125 on BetMGM is much better than over 15.5 at -116 on DraftKings, or over 16.5 at -114 on FanDuel.
But all three are still solid value by my numbers.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125, BetMGM)
Jaguars vs 49ers Player Prop: Brian Thomas 1st Quarter Receiving Yards Prop
If I had to guess, the Jaguars are going to start the game with the ball.
Jacksonville won the coin toss three times this year, and in two of those games, it chose to receive the kickoff. Conversely, the Niners have won the coin toss three times this season, and chose to defer all three times — the Kyle Shanahan standard.
Now that I think about it, I don't recall him choosing to receive the ball as far back as my coin toss data goes.
In two of the three games this year, including in the game in which the Jags got the ball second, Brian Thomas Jr. has caught one of two targets for nine yards.
Now, he face a 49er defense that has allowed a higher catch percentage and catch percentage over expectation (CPOE) than the other three teams the Jaguars have faced this season.
We should also expect Thomas' catch rate to improve from the paltry 28% he's had so far, closer to the mid 60% rate he had last year while having a similar aDOT to his rookie season.
Jacksonville has also reportedly made it a point to get Thomas plenty of looks in practice this week to build back that confidence after some ugly drops, which tends not to be a sticky statistic.
His receiving yard total is around 57.5 to 58.5 yards across the market, so 7.5 yards represents just 12.9% of that for 25% of game time, of which the Jags should have even more than 25% of their total possession by likely starting with the ball.
To that point, 24% of BTJ's targets have come in the first quarter so far this season, which would equate to around 4 yards if that was also the percentage of yards he accumulated.
Only DraftKings has this prop right now, but when other books start to post it, I'd play it up to 9.5 at -110 or 10.5 at even money or better.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 7.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-117, DraftKings)
