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Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 5 on Sunday, October 11.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 5.
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NFL Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Raiders vs Patriots |
| Bears vs Packers |
| Colts vs Steelers |
| Vikings vs Saints |
| Browns vs Jets |
| Bengals vs Dolphins |
| Giants vs Commanders |
| Texans vs Titans |
| Broncos vs Chargers |
| 49ers vs Seahawks |
| Lions vs Cardinals |
Raiders vs. Patriots
Well, it finally happened.
We’ve been priced out on TE Brock Bowers TD bets. It was a fun run of getting him at +200 or better in each of the last two games, but since he scored both times, the best odds you’ll get now is +140.
This means it’s time to pivot back to my guy Nick Giffen’s favorite Raider: Tre Tucker at +400. He only has one TD this year, but he may as well be the WR1 in this offense since he’s running the most routes of any Raiders WR, and it looks like WR3 Jalen Nailor could miss this one due to a concussion.
With Tucker, you are betting on a player who can score from deep (leads team with six deep targets), has a history of getting rushing attempts near the goal line (scored on a jet sweep last season), and plays the most snaps — and if the Patriots don’t have CB Christian Gonzalez on the field, I like this bet even more.
We took QB Drake Maye last week hoping he would use his legs a bit more to scramble, and he did just that with eight rushing attempts and 54 rushing yards.
The discouraging part was Maye running towards the end zone on a 26-yard rush and then getting tackled at the 1-yard line in the second quarter — or, when the Pats got to the 1-yard line again in the third quarter, Maye fumbled the snap and had to abort the play.
Both were golden opportunities to cash Maye at +400. Alas, it wasn't meant to happen, but I’m going right back to him today.
Maye leads the NFL in total scrambles (14), and with all the turnover issues he’s had this year, you could tell he was running with purpose to avoid those costly turnovers and try to score.
Getting this price again, we have to run it back (pun intended).
VERDICT: Tre Tucker +350 | Drake Maye +400
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Bears vs. Packers
If the Bears are just going to run over teams every week, we may be in trouble finding value for TD scorers.
Chicago’s run game has been so dominant over the last two games that the Bears haven’t really needed to throw and now lead the NFL in rushing attempts per game.
I think the Bears lead with the run game, and given this may be his last week as the Bears starter, QB Tyson Bagent would be my favorite runner in this game at +600.
But from a pure electricity standpoint, we go back to WR Luther Burden at +240. He’s got a 32% first-read target share, leads the Bears with six red-zone targets, and he even saw a red-zone carry in Week 3.
Burden is the Amon-Ra St. Brown in Ben Johnson’s offense, and with the Packers defense struggling with injuries, I’ll take Burden to score another TD and talk some smack while he’s at it.
We took TE Tucker Kraft last week against the Bucs, and he rewarded us with his first TD of the year.
I know this isn’t the best matchup, but given how the Packers offense has looked running the ball, they might need to throw for most of the game.
Kraft finally came alive in Week 4 and ran the most routes in a game all season while QB Jordan Love targeted him three times in red zone and twice in the end zone.
If Kraft is starting to get back on track and be a force in the red zone, these are just too high of odds for a TE1 that had six TDs in seven games last year.
If he scores this week, this might be the last time we see Kraft at +200 or better with the Cowboys, Panthers and Lions all on deck.
Buy the dip!
VERDICT: Luther Burden +240 | Tucker Kraft +250
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Colts vs. Steelers
The key factor for Colts–Steelers is weather. It’s expected to be wet and rainy with a chance of thunderstorms, which could mess up the flow of this game script.
Due to the weather, passing attempts could plummet from QBs Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones. I'd keep expectations in check regarding the amount of TDs we see in this matchup. Expect a heavy dose of rushing with short targets and minimal explosive plays.
My initial desire for a TD bet in this game was WR Michael Pittman going back to face his old team, but he’s out this week with a foot injury. Thus, we go back to TE Pat Freiermuth at +310.
On the Touchdown Show podcast, my co-host Sean Koerner was bullish on Freiermuth remaining a focal point in the Steelers' passing game. He mentioned that a lot of Pittman’s routes are similar to the starting TE.
Koerner also acknowledged that the betting market may not be up to speed yet on the fact that Freiermuth is the tush-push option with Connor Heyward gone.
I’m not fully sure how healthy WR Keenan Allen is at the moment, but if he’s practicing, this is when we want to bet him. Allen is being priced like a WR4 in this offense (+425), but he leads the team in targets per route run and is tied with WR1 Josh Downs in first-read target share.
The Steelers could also be missing one of their starting cornerbacks, which should only help the Colts passing offense.
Allen is questionable, but he was a full participant at practice on Friday. If he gets ruled out on Sunday, pivot to TE Tyler Warren at +230 since he still commands a massive target share and the Steelers have given up a TD to a TE in each of the last two games.
VERDICT: Keenan Allen +450 (If Allen inactive, pivot to Tyler Warren +230) | Pat Freiermuth +300
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Vikings vs. Saints
If Justin Jefferson is back on the field for the Vikings, we’re going to bet this. He was limited all week in practice, but all reports say he’s good to go and excited to play in his hometown.
The latter motivation is a fun angle, but the real reason we go back to Jefferson is mostly the target share.
If Jefferson is playing, he commands a 30% target share and will get a plump matchup against a Saints defense has allowed five TDs to WRs this season and ranks bottom 10 in defensive DVOA vs. WR1s and the deep pass.
Don’t overcomplicate this one.
For the Saints, I took a good long look at WR Chris Olave — the Vikings' high blitz rate tends to lead to big plays, which could translate well for Olave, but he was limited at practice with a foot injury, and that could limit some of his explosiveness.
Instead, I say we run TE Juwan Johnson back at +320. He leads the team with seven red-zone targets — with four of those going to the end zone.
I would also consider WR Bryce Lance at +750 for a long shot since he leads the team in aDOT (blitz beater) and is running a route at 70% clip.
VERDICT: Justin Jefferson +180 | Juwan Johnson +320
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Browns vs. Jets
The Browns offense hasn’t been a complete disaster through the first month of the season, and facing the Jets this week, I think the Cleveland passing game could be steady again in Week 5.
I was too cowardly to take TE Harold Fannin Jr. the last two weeks, and now he’s down around +220 to score, which now means we need to pivot.
The lone Browns receiver to see heavy action but not score a TD yet is WR KC Concepcion.
I tend to steer clear of the “he’s due” narrative when betting TD props, but Concepcion checks a lot of boxes. He’s running the second-most routes on the team while leading the Browns in targets per route run. He is also tied with rookie WR Denzel Boston and Fannin with three red-zone targets.
The Browns know how electric Concepcion can be in space so I expect them to scheme up ways to have him more involved.
Last week, we took Jets WR Isaiah Williams to score his first TD of the year, and the Jets rewarded us with a 58-yard deep shot to cash the +500.
Now, part of the reason we bet on him last week was because of injuries to WR Adonai Mitchell, TE Mason Taylor, and TE Kenyon Sadiq.
All three of those players are trending towards not playing again, which puts Williams in another great spot.
Over the last two games, Williams has run a route on 90% of Geno Smith's dropbacks, and he lines up in the slot over 53% of the time, which I think will be a better matchup for him while CB Denzel Ward and WR Garrett Wilson battle it out on the outside.
Last week, we saw the Browns give up a 12-yard passing TD to Roman Wilson out of the slot. Let’s see if the Jets can do it, too.
VERDICT: KC Concepcion +320 | Isaiah Williams +450
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Bengals vs. Dolphins
I have been waiting for this type of Bengals game all season.
As amazing as WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are, they tend to get banged up and miss a game or two every season. When that happens, we want the immediate replacement in this offense, and that’s WR Mitchell Tinsley at +320.
Tinsley saw seven targets last week against the Jaguars as the Bengals lost both starting receivers by the end of the game, and three of those targets were in the red zone.
When Higgins and Chase each missed a game last season, Tinsley saw his snaps nearly double in those spots, and I expect more of the same against a Dolphins secondary that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass.
Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up this game — Chase and Higgins logged full practices on Friday and both are listed as questionable.
After four games of studying the Dolphins offense and trying to find strengths, it seems to get harder and harder each week.
The natural instinct is to bet on TE Greg Dulcich because the Bengals are still terrible at defending opposing TEs. But the market appears to be caught up to that angle with Dulcich down to +550 despite not scoring a TD yet and having no end-zone targets.
I’m inclined to pass on Dolphins this week, but instead, I’m going to run back QB Malik Willis at +360.
Willis only has one rushing TD this season (in Week 1), but he is still tied for the league lead with 14 scrambles from the pocket.
This could be a matchup where Willis scrambles a bit more. The Bengals rank top five in man coverage rate, which tends to encourage rushing attempts from quarterbacks.
As long as the Dolphins can actually get into the red zone (bottom three in total red-zone attempts), we should have a shot!
VERDICT: Mitchell Tinsley +320 | Malik Willis +360
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Giants vs. Commanders
The Commanders have allowed five TDs to TEs this year and rank bottom five in defensive DVOA against the position.
Yup, that sounds like Giants TE Isaiah Likely’s music.
I know he hasn’t scored since Week 1, but Likely leads the team in nearly every receiver metric like red-zone targets, total routes run and first-read target share.
Likely will be a very popular TD pick this week, and rightfully so. I had his fair odds closer to +210. I’ll take the value on Likely over the other Giant that I'm showing value on, RB Cam Skattebo (+130) — but with RBs Najee Harris and Tyrone Tracey both getting snaps, I want avoid that committee.
The Commanders' injury report is lengthy and doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
QB Jayden Daniels could be down both of his starting WRs in Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin, while also dealing with an elbow injury of his own.
Daniels is expected to play, but who he will be throwing to is anyone’s guess. Even rookie WR Jaylin Lane is out with an ankle injury.
I’m going to take a swing on WR Luke McCaffrey at +1400. He’s fallen out of favor in Washington with the arrival of Diggs, but he had three TDs last season in his rookie year, and most of it was when the Commanders were having injury issues.
You could always go with Daniels at +245 (it's not like he had a leg injury), but with so much uncertainty at WR, this is the opportunity to go long-shot hunting and see if McCaffrey can score TDs like his brother.
VERDICT: Isaiah Likely +245 | Luke McCaffrey +1400
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Texans vs. Titans
There’s good news and bad news when it comes to Titans TD scorers.
The good news is all the value in this matchup is on Tennessee’s side with four players showing ATD value. The bad news is Cam Ward looks almost as bad this season as he did in his rookie season.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson (+450) might be the best receiving option on the board since he might see 10+ targets, but it will probably be a bunch of bailout throws. I’m just going to take RB Tony Pollard to score a TD.
It’s not often you get a RB1 at +200 odds or better, but given the Titans only managed to score 13 total points in two matchups against the Texans last year, it makes sense as to how we ended up here.
It may shock you learn that despite how bad the Titans have looked, Pollard is still getting the lion's share of the touches inside the red zone, and he ranks third in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line.
In fact, of the six RBs that have 10+ carries inside the red zone, every player has at least two rushing TDs except for Pollard.
After watching RB Javonte Williams run for three TDs against this defense, I think that changes for Pollard this week.
This might be the biggest TD long shot I’ll give out all season. Temper your expectations with this Texans TD bet, but I’m going with TE Brevin Jordan at +2500.
The Texans love this guy, and despite missing most of the last two seasons due to injury, he still made the 53-man roster. He could be a sneaky TD bet because this will be his second game back on the active roster, and I’m not sure people remember how much of a red-zone threat he was entering the league.
Jordan scored three TDs in his rookie year, and you may recall his 76-yard TD catch against the Browns back in January 2024.
He may not see the field much, but if Jordan is out there, there's a high chance that he’s getting a target.
If you prefer to go with a safer option, maybe you try Xavier Hutchinson since he’s the WR2 in this offense, but with how much the passing game goes through WR Nico Collins, I either want a long shot or nothing here.
VERDICT: Tony Pollard +240 | Brevin Jordan +2500
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Broncos vs. Chargers
The Chargers are dealing with massive injuries on the pass-catcher front, with only TE1 Oronde Gadsden and WR3 Tre Harris not listed on the injury report.
I really wanted to attack the Broncos secondary this week since both starting cornerbacks are out with injuries. WR Quentin Johnston was my initial target, but he also missed practice on Friday.
I have a few boom-or-bust picks, and this might be the grossest one. I think this means we need to go with a long shot and take WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
MVS ended up playing 40% of snaps in Week 4 after WR Ladd McConkey went down, and he has shown many times in his career that he can get open for a long touchdown.
It’s +1200 for a reason. MVS may catch a TD or he might run 50% of routes and not see a target — but given what we’re working with here, I’ll take a swing.
With Sean Payton taking back playcalling duties with the Broncos, I expect some more efficiency on offense, and that starts with QB Bo Nix.
Nix has been hit or miss this year with his accuracy, and it’s cost them games because he couldn’t take advantage of key third downs.
While I expect him to be a bit more conservative with shorter passes, I can’t pass on Nix at +425. His scramble rate has fallen off a cliff this year without Payton calling the shots.
I expect the Broncos offense to resemble something closer to what we saw last year when Nix was around five rush attempts per game (17 games), compared to just over three this year (four games).
The Broncos need the play-action and RPO game to work for the offense to be effective, and with the Chargers defense being so battered, I like Nix to score another rushing TD.
VERDICT: Bo Nix +425 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1200
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49ers vs. Seahawks
I wrote this last week about Seahawks TE AJ Barner, and frankly, it still rings true for this matchup with the 49ers in Week 5:
“Another Seahawks game, another week of me betting TE AJ Barner to score a touchdown. I know WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to see close to a 40% target share, and I don’t care. I can’t pass on Barner at this price when he may as well be the WR2 in this offense with how many snaps and routes he gets — and of course, we always have the “tush push” in our back pocket if the Seahawks get a chance near the goal line.”
Barner only saw three targets last week, but a big reason for that was because the Seahawks run game was the star of the show.
I’m not convinced the Seahawks will be able to run the ball at the same clip today, with the 49ers ranking top five in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed through four games.
I’m not sure what to do with 49ers TD scorers these days with all the injuries, but if TE George Kittle is going to keep balling out like this, I’m not sure I can pass on him at +190.
Despite coming off an Achilles tear, Kittle has scored four TDs over his last three games, and one of them was a shocking 56-yard run where he looked as fast as ever.
The Seahawks play zone at the highest rate in the NFL, while also playing a top-10 rate of two-high safety, which bodes well for Kittle — and for what it’s worth, he has scored a TD in three of the last four games in Seattle with Brock Purdy as his QB.
VERDICT: AJ Barner +300 | George Kittle +190
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Lions vs. Cardinals
I bet Marvin Harrison Jr. to score a TD last week, and we cashed it. The Cardinals have reportedly agreed to trade the WR to an unknown team (at the time of writing) and now he’s inactive for Week 5.
I was hesitant to look at Michael Wilson, but now that Harrison is gone, I'm going to take Wilson today.
Frankly, it’s a crime this man only has one touchdown this year. He’s averaging just over 10 targets per game, ranks second in the NFL in red-zone targets (eight), and second in end zone targets (four).
With or without Harrison, the Cardinals have been peppering Wilson with targets, which sets up well against Detroit. The Lions secondary has been abysmal all year due to injuries. It feels like they haven’t stopped a pass since 2025.
The Lions have allowed the most passing yards and touchdowns this year, and this is the game with the highest total of the week. If we’re getting a shootout, give me Wilson to score his second TD of the year.
For the Lions, this one is pretty simple. Just bet on the only Lion with TD value this week.
With RB Jahmyr Gibbs hovering around -450, you can’t start at the top of the board. Hell, even WR Jameson Williams (who hasn’t even scored yet) is less than +200.
So, by default, we go to WR Isaac TeSlaa at +420. He caught six TDs last year, and he is running a route on over 70% of Jared Goff's dropbacks.
TeSlaa doesn’t get targeted a lot, but when he does, it’s usually a highlight catch in the end zone.
With three red-zone targets and two end-zone targets this season, let’s bank on some positive regression with the Lions finally spreading the ball around.
VERDICT: Michael Wilson +175 | Isaac TeSlaa +420
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