NFL Week 7 Sunday Mega-Preview: Brandon Anderson’s Props, Picks & Parlays

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Last week, we barely finished in the green (+0.4 units), but overall we're hovering right around a 10% ROI on the season. This week, we have a massive slate of high-leverage games, stinky lines, and — best of all — National Tight Ends Day.

I am splitting my card into two parts: the regular Mega Preview for the standard slate, and a dedicated National Tight Ends Day Merry-Go-Round section to celebrate the greatest made-up holiday on the calendar.

Let's get into my NFL Week 7 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.

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NFL Week 7 Picks, Props, Same-Game Parlays

Sunday, October 25

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

Under 50, Christian McCaffrey Receptions Escalator

This just feels like an under all the way, and maybe way under the total of 50.

San Francisco is on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, and it's just trying to survive and get to the bye next week.

The Niners have so many injuries that this is not the time to push it when you are 6-0. They already announced that both Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are out.

Atlanta’s defense has been pretty good. It can get after the quarterback, and it ranks above average in DVOA against both the run and the pass.

On the flip side, the 49ers defense continues to play great and is easily the best defense Michael Penix Jr. will face since his return.

Atlanta’s game totals with Penix have been 49, 69, 53, and 54. I think that is why this total is so high, but even then, Atlanta relies on an elite run game, and San Francisco boasts a top-five run defense. This feels like a grind-it-out game where both teams just want to get to the bye.

A big part of the problem here is that San Francisco is completely out of wide receivers. Let everyone else guess whether it will be Jacob Cowing, Jordan Watkins, or Brandin Cooks.

The real answer is obvious: Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. McCaffrey's receptions have been down this year, but they spiked last week with the Niners low on weapons.

The Falcons allow the fourth-most receptions to running backs. McCaffrey had five catches or fewer in all five games until last week, so I’m skipping his heavily juiced Over 4.5 line and playing the alternates.

Pick: Under 50 (-110 at BetMGM)

Escalator Picks:

• Christian McCaffrey 6+ Receptions (+145 at bet365)
• 7+ Receptions (+245 at bet365)
• 9+ Receptions (+800 at bet365)

Sunday, October 25

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

Jets HT/FT

Jets -4.5 should be my easiest pick of the week. I make this line closer to Jets -9.5.

I am not entirely sure my numbers are accounting for Miami’s feistiness so far. The Dolphins were really only embarrassed by San Francisco, and they've been competitive against the Raiders, Chiefs, Vikings, and Bengals. Then again, they still haven't covered a -4.5 spread yet.

The metrics certainly don’t think Miami is any good, ranking bottom-three in offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA. The only things Miami aren't awful at are running the ball and stopping the run. I trust the Jets defense and Geno Smith enough in this matchup to get it done.

The problem?

There is something incredibly stinky about this number being stuck at 4.5 all week. The Dolphins have dominated this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 17. Miami is also rested coming off a bye week, and we don't know what answers this new coaching staff may have found. Plus, Miami is 0-5 ATS in the first half this year, while the Jets are 4-2.

I thought about just playing the Jets 1H -2.5 to duck the backdoor cover, but I don't want to lay -125 juice. I really don't mind laying the 4.5 points, but I prefer avoiding the spread entirely here.

Just get the lead by halftime and hold it.

Pick: Jets HT/FT Moneyline Parlay (-115 at DraftKings)

Sunday, October 25

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

Vikings 2H -2.5

This is another spot where my numbers love the favorite.

I make this closer to Vikings -8, but the -6.5 line feels stinky.

How are the Colts going to score? The Vikings' run defense has been great, and Daniel Jones sucks. I am also extremely optimistic about a fully healthy Vikings offense coming out of the bye week against a bad defense.

Getting Jordan Mason back is huge, especially against a Colts defense ranked 31st in run DVOA. This is also a bit of a revenge spot against Jones, and I am not afraid of his backdoor cover potential.

But Minnesota is 5-0 with wins by five, six, and seven points, so you don't feel great about laying -6.5. There are also a bunch of trends warning me to be careful with Minnesota here.

However, the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in the second half, while the Colts are 1-4-1 ATS in the second half. Indy is not closing out games, and it is likely still fatigued playing without a rest advantage post-London.

The Vikings are healthy, rested, and I trust them to close this out late. Duck the key number and play the second-half spread.

Pick: Vikings 2H -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Sunday, October 25

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

Packers -3, Christian Watson / Matthew Golden Props

I’m playing the Lions -3, and this is probably my favorite side of the entire week.

The playoffs are a long way away, but this is the highest playoff-leverage game of the week. Both teams are looking at a 30% swing in their playoff odds pending the result. This is Detroit's first division game of the year, and this rivalry has resulted in a series sweep in eight of the last 10 years.

By DVOA, this looks relatively even — strength on strength, weakness on weakness. That’s because the Packers' metrics simply do not pass the smell test. Green Bay is currently ranked as the No. 23 offense and the No. 4 defense. I don’t buy either of those numbers.

Green Bay is awful at running the ball (though getting Josh Jacobs back helps), but Jordan Love and the passing game are absolutely lethal. On the other side, the Packers' run defense is bad, but their pass defense ranks No. 2 in DVOA? No way.

The Packers defense has been an extreme outlier at limiting explosives (a league-best 1.8% rate on passing explosives). That regression is coming.

Detroit is perfectly fine grinding it out anyway. Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions will run all over them, chew up the clock, and put together 10-to-12 play scoring drives.

We know the Lions defense is beatable, but the return of Brian Branch is massive. Since 2023, Detroit has had the third-worst defensive success rate without Branch on the field, and the third-best with him. Long Detroit drives paired with quick Green Bay passing strikes (or quick three-and-outs) spell trouble for the Packers.

This is also an awesome trend spot.

Jared Goff is 68% ATS indoors with the Lions. Goff and Dan Campbell are great as favorites, and they are 67% ATS coming off a bye.

Give me the Lions -3.

But we aren't stopping there. We know how bad the Lions have been against WR1s — we've been playing that angle all year.

Over its last 14 games against a true WR1, Detroit is allowing an average of 7.1 catches for 103.6 yards on 11 targets, with 100+ yards in eight of those 14 games. The problem is Green Bay doesn't really have a defined WR1.

Is it Christian Watson or Matthew Golden? It’s both.

We saw it last week, and we are going right back to the well. In Jordan Love's four big games this year, these two go off at the exact same time.

They had 147/95, 96/100, 143/123, and last week’s 64/104 (where they easily left another 100+ yards on the table with drops). We are getting a negative correlation bonus from the books here, so we are playing the BOGO.

Pick: Lions -3
Pick: Christian Watson 80+ Receiving Yards & Matthew Golden 80+ Receiving Yards (+370 at BetRivers)
Escalator Pick: Watson 100+ Yards & Golden 100+ Yards (+1050 at BetRivers)
The SGP: Watson 80+ Yards, Golden 80+ Yards, & Lions -3 (+575 at BetRivers)

Sunday, October 25

4:05 p.m. ET

CBS

Broncos to Win From Behind

My numbers actually like Arizona here. The line sits at Denver -4.5, but I make it closer to -2.

Arizona's run defense can hang, and Denver's passing offense isn't attacking downfield as it continues to be held back by Bo Nix.

The Cardinals offense isn't generating explosive plays, but they can chew up the clock on long, sustained drives. This feels exactly like a game where the Cardinals cover the spread, but lose outright.

Denver’s wins this year have come by margins of three, four, six, and seven points. The Broncos have trailed in all six games this season, but they are 4-2 because they are the Broncos. They already have four comeback wins this year, and last season 12 of their 14 wins were comebacks.

If it is going to keep happening, we might as well just bet it. They just need to fall behind by even a field goal, win the game, and we get a plus-money moneyline payout on Denver.

Pick: Broncos Comeback Win (+150 at DraftKings)

(Note: Find this under the 'Comeback' tab in Team Props)

Sunday, November 1

4:25 p.m. ET

CBS

Under 42.5

Last week we took the Chiefs/Seahawks Under 44.5 on the lookahead. That total is down two points and falling, so we are going to run it back.

Both the Chiefs and Broncos have seen their totals drop two or more points this week, and both look like they’ll be playing in games that struggle to hit 40 points. We definitely trust both defenses more than the offenses in this matchup.

Denver's offense is struggling, and Bo Nix isn't going to be able to do anything against Steve Spagnuolo's confusing schemes.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have no wide receivers left for Patrick Mahomes, and Denver will actually tackle Kenneth Walker this time.

Since the start of the 2023 season, the final totals for this AFC West matchup are 27, 33, 30, 38, 41, 33, and 41. All seven of those went under 42.5, averaging a 34.7 total.

The Chiefs stayed under this number 10 times last year and in three of five games this year. Denver has already gone under this in five of six games. There is only one direction this line moves, and 41 and 42 are key numbers.

Pick: Under 42.5 (FanDuel)