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Week 7 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in NFL prop bets for Sunday, featuring picks for 49ers vs Falcons, Dolphins vs Jets, Giants vs Texans, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 7 player props and best bets for Sunday, October 25.
NFL Player Props Week 7
- Christian McCaffrey Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-128)
- C.J. Stroud Under 22.5 Pass Attempts (-140)
- Ollie Gordon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Mason Taylor Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- John Metchie III Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
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Christian McCaffrey Rush Attempts
The undefeated 49ers are “only” 2.5-point favorites here, so there’s at least a chance they end up in a rarer trailing game script than we’ve seen this season.
Either way, I’m expecting San Francisco’s overall rushing volume to come down a bit. With the WR room so banged up now that Mike Evans is out, I could see more snaps with McCaffrey and Kaelon Black on the field together, with McCaffrey flexed out into the slot at WR and Black handling the backfield work.
Using McCaffrey more as a pass catcher and extension of the run game makes a lot of sense here instead of just banging him 16+ times on the ground. Black can take some of that early down work and keep McCaffrey a little fresher by just handling receiving work.
The 49ers also use Purdy on QB sneaks in short-yardage spots, which takes away another path to extra carries.
I have McCaffrey closer to 14.5 rushing attempts, with around a 61% chance to stay under 15.5.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-128)
C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts
I have Stroud projected closer to 20.7 completions and around a 64% chance to stay under 22.5.
I still like Under 21.5 (-107) as well at around 57%, but I’m taking the extra cushion here.
I think I’ve lost something like three completion props by 0.5 this year despite basically getting the worst-case game script in all of them, so I’m fine paying a little more for 22.5.
The obvious way this gets torched is if the Giants somehow jump out to a 10-0 lead early with J.J. McCarthy under center and force Houston into a pass heavy script. I’m basically betting against that scenario.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 22.5 Pass Attempts (-140)
Ollie Gordon II Rushing Yards Yards
Ollie Gordon II has been way better than I expected since taking over as the Dolphins' lead back.
Miami is still a very run-heavy offense despite somehow not running a single play with the lead all year. As “only” 4.5-point underdogs against the Jets, there’s at least a decent chance that finally changes. It literally can’t get worse than a 0% lead rate either way. Gordon's volume would go way up in a more neutral game script.
This is also a sneaky good matchup against the Jets. I’m aware Kaytron Allen could make his Miami debut here, but I’d expect him to eat more into Jaylen Wright’s role than Gordon’s.
I have Gordon closer to 60.5 rushing yards with around a 60% chance to clear 54.5.
This is also the type of over where I think the upside is better than the median makes it look, so I’m fine dabbling with alt overs/ladder props too.
Pick: Ollie Gordon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Mason Taylor Receiving Yards
Sticking with this game, this feels like a decent time to sell high after Mason Taylor benefited from Kenyon Sadiq getting knocked out of Week 5 with a concussion and likely being somewhat limited in Week 6 because of it.
Even if Taylor’s routes run rate stays around the 55% range, I think his target share should come back down with Omar Cooper back in a full-time role and Adonai Mitchell returning.
That just creates more competition for targets than Taylor had the last couple weeks.
I have him closer to 18.5 receiving yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5.
Pick: Mason Taylor Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
John Metchie III Receiving Yards
With Xavier Legette sidelined, Metchie has quietly been the Panthers' most stable WR3.
Brycen Tremayne was the clear WR2 while Jalen Coker was sidelined, but once Coker returned last week, Tremayne slid back to WR4 while Metchie essentially stayed in the same role.
That makes me a little more confident that Metchie is the one filling the Legette spot rather than just temporarily benefiting from Coker’s absence. And I think Metchie has enough talent to potentially hang onto some of that work once Legette returns.
There’s nowhere near the same upside as the Omar Cooper Jr. spot last week, but at 9.5 yards Metchie doesn’t need much. I think the market is still underrating him a bit while naturally focusing most of the attention on Tetairoa McMillan and Coker.
I’m fine sprinkling some alt overs too if you want to get a little more aggressive. I also took Metchie at 11/1 on the TD Show, so clearly I’m buying the role a bit more than the market right now.
Pick: John Metchie III Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
