In case you didn't already know, the fourth Sunday of October is National Tight Ends Day.
It's plastered all over NFL Red Zone. It’s one of those days where you hear about it constantly and wish you had bet on some tight ends. So, here we are, betting on the best tight end props we can find for this NFL holiday.
In National Tight Ends Day 2024, tight ends scored 16 touchdowns and caught 177 passes (the most ever for the position on a single Sunday).
These are long-shot picks as the odds on these bets are 3-1, 5-1, or 10-1. Sprinkle a quarter unit on these and let's have some fun with the big guys.
National Tight Ends Day Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| 49ers vs Falcons |
| Buccaneers vs Panthers |
| Colts vs Vikings |
| Bengals vs Ravens |
| Broncos vs Cardinals |
| Rams vs. Raiders |
| Packers vs Lions |
| Chiefs vs Seahawks |
| Cowboys vs Eagles |
49ers vs Falcons
George Kittle is the guy who started hyping the idea of National Tight Ends Day in the first place, and he sure seems to love playing on it.
His recent stat lines on this holiday:
- 4/43/1
- 6/128/1
- 5/78
- 6/98/1
Kittle averages five receptions for 87 yards while scoring on three of the last four.
I bet under 50 for 49ers–Falcons, but that doesn't mean this game will be devoid of points.
San Francisco has an implied team total of 26.5. Kittle has a touchdown in eight of his 13 games with Brock Purdy since the start of last season.
With Mike Evans out, Kittle is the 49ers' unquestioned primary red-zone threat. The Falcons rank in the top quarter of the league for the most tight end fantasy points allowed.
We are betting the negative correlation here again — 50 points is plenty of room for Kittle to score and the game to still go under.
Pick: George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+130 at DraftKings)
SGP: Kittle Anytime Touchdown & Under 50 (+435 at DraftKings)
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Buccaneers vs Panthers
The Buccaneers and Panthers have fielded two of the league's worst tight end defenses in recent years.
The Bucs have ranked in the top 10 in tight end fantasy points allowed for four straight seasons. The Panthers gave up a ton of touchdowns to tight ends last year, and they have allowed 6+ receptions to the position in three straight games.
Thus, we are playing both sides of this matchup.
Cade Otton is the only tight end Tampa Bay throws to. His numbers dipped with Jalon Daniels under center, but Baker Mayfield is back and he loves Otton. Over the last two seasons, Otton has posted games with 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, and 9 receptions.
On the other side, Darren Waller is a massive red-zone target. The Bucs allowed 12 tight end touchdowns last year (second-most in the league).
Since coming out of retirement, Waller has scored eight touchdowns in 13 games. In his career, he has scored a touchdown on every single National Tight Ends Day where he played 10+ snaps (3-for-3). He already has a multi-TD game for Carolina this year, and he has posted three 2-TD games since his return from retirement.
Bucs Picks: Cade Otton 6+ Receptions (+300 at bet365) / 7+ Receptions (+575 at Caesars) / 8+ Receptions (+900 at bet365)
Panthers Picks: Darren Waller Anytime TD (+320 at DraftKings) / 2+ TDs (+3500 at bet365)
- Find First Touchdown picks for every Week 7 game in our expert's TD Model!
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Colts vs Vikings
The Colts' pass defense is atrocious over the middle of the field, which makes sense since they feature some of the worst linebackers in the league — not to mention slot corner Justin Walley is a liability.
The middle of the field is exactly where T.J. Hockenson lives.
We have only seen one game with Kyler Murray and Hockenson together — the tight end went off for 13 catches and 119 yards. Murray also had a good connection with Trey McBride during his Cardinals days.
The Colts have already allowed two 19-point fantasy games to tight ends this season.
Picks: T.J. Hockenson 7+ Receptions (+350 at bet365) / 70+ Receiving Yards (+500 at bet365)
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Bengals vs Ravens
No, not the tequila — that’s Jose Cuervo. Josh Cuevas is a rookie tight end for the Ravens.
With Mark Andrews suffering from the dropsies, Cuevas played a career-high 23 snaps in Week 6 (40%) and caught his first touchdown. His receptions have trended up (2 and 4) over the last two weeks.
And yes, I still like this if Tyler Huntley is starting for the injured Lamar Jackson. Almost no one throws to tight ends as much as Huntley.
Plus, there is absolutely no way we are going through National Tight Ends Day without fading the Bengals defense.
Pick: Josh Cuevas Anytime Touchdown (+1200 at DraftKings)
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Broncos vs Cardinals
The Cardinals have been exceptionally bad defending tight ends, allowing 5+ catches to a TE in five of their six games.
Engram’s production is up under Sean Payton as the veteran has caught six passes in his last two games after catching six total in his first four. Engram's snaps have also jumped from 40-50% last year to 57% this year.
I am not really a believer in Bo Nix or Engram, but Arizona defensive coordinator Nick Rallis loves to bring mixed pressures. That means Nix is going to turn into Captain Checkdown.
Picks: Evan Engram 4+ Receptions (+219 at DraftKings) / 5+ Receptions (+532 at DraftKings)
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Rams vs Raiders
My numbers like the Raiders +4.5 at home against a banged-up Rams team, but I am terrified that Sean McVay will just run 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) all game long and run the ball down the Raiders' throats.
Expect a lot of tight ends on the field with Davante Adams out (and potentially Puka Nacua, too). Last year, tight ends accounted for 30% of the Rams' targets in the three games Adams missed.
Matthew Stafford is leading the NFL in pass attempts, meaning we could easily see 12+ tight end targets. Eventually, that volume will funnel to Terrance Ferguson when he is healthy, but for now, it's the Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson fun house.
Higbee is the field stretcher (acting almost like a WR2), while Parkinson is the blocker. Higbee’s numbers have surged over the last four games without Ferguson: playing 71% of snaps, averaging 5.5 catches for 59 yards on 6.8 targets, and logging 5+ catches and 52+ yards in three of those four games. I couldn't decide between Higbee's receptions or yardage, so we are playing both and yo-yoing our way up.
Parkinson is a blocker and a short-yardage guy, which puts him firmly in play for red-zone touchdowns. Parkinson scored what would have been the game-winner last week, giving him nine touchdowns in his last 14 games dating back to last year.
Picks: Tyler Higbee 5+ Receptions (+210 at bet365) / 60+ Receiving Yards (+500 at bet365) / 7+ Receptions (+800 at bet365) / 100+ Receiving Yards (+1600 at Hard Rock)
Picks: Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+400 at DraftKings) / 2+ TDs (+6000 at DraftKings)
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Packers vs Lions
The Lions have already allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends in just five games, including scores to luminaries like Noah Fant, Dawson Knox, Jeremy Ruckert, and Teagan Quitoriano.
Tucker Kraft at +185 for an anytime touchdown is the easy way out, but there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay. Let’s grab the other impressive rookie tight end: Mark Redman, who has played 20+ snaps in three straight games (though he only has targets in one of them so far).
Pick: Mark Redman Anytime Touchdown (+1850 at BetMGM)
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Chiefs vs Seahawks
We are closing out our day on Sunday Night Football with more tight ends.
Travis Kelce is the obvious play, but Seattle is good against tight ends — Kansas City, however, is not.
The Chiefs have allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season (5+ in every game, including 17 against the Raiders) and have allowed a tight end touchdown in all but one game.
With Elijah Arroyo on IR, it is all AJ Barner, who plays nearly every snap. He is also Seattle's tush-push guy, logging a rushing touchdown last year and one this year. He has scored a touchdown in seven of his last 20 games when he's played at least 75% of snaps.
Pick: AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown (+300 at bet365)
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Cowboys vs Eagles
Does National Tight Ends Day extend into Monday Night Football? Probably not, but it doesn't matter because I have more.
The Eagles used to be awesome defending tight ends, but they used to be a lot of things. Brevyn Spann-Ford is someone I have had my eye on to cut into Jake Ferguson's workload.
Last week was the big swing: Ferguson's snaps dropped from 72% to 54%, while Spann-Ford jumped to 46% (catching four passes for 35 yards on five targets). He operated as the primary tight end in 11 personnel on early downs and played every single snap in 12 personnel packages.
Pick: Brevyn Spann-Ford Anytime Touchdown (+850 at DraftKings)
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