Ravens vs Chargers Picks: How to Bet Sunday Night Football

Ravens vs Chargers Picks | Sunday Night Football

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for this intriguing Sunday Night Football game and find an Ravens vs. Chargers pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.

For now, let's get into my Ravens vs. Chargers picks on Sunday night.

• Both teams' pass-catchers are badly compromised. Baltimore lost Mark Andrews early in its last game and he's effectively this team's WR1 and a huge loss over the middle as Lamar Jackson's security blanket. Both Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers are questionable, though it appears both will attempt to play. The Chargers have already lost Mike Williams for the season and listed Jalen Guyton and Gerald Everett as questionable.
• Both teams could also be without their best blocker. The Chargers are still missing stud C Corey Linsley, while Ravens star T Ronnie Stanley is also listed as questionable.
• Todd Monken's offense is rolling. The Ravens have scored 31 points or more in five straight games. Teams that have scored 25-plus in five straight are 73-101-8 ATS (42%) in their following game.
• The total for this game has skyrocketed all the way from 44.5 to 48.5. That comes in stark contrast to the usual trends backing primetime unders (75% this season) and unders in games featuring home underdogs (63%).

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There's no question about which unit will be the weakest on the field. It's the Chargers defense, and it's not close.

Baltimore's defense has its flaws, but has been outstanding overall and should stymie L.A.'s rushing attack and hold its own against Justin Herbert. The Ravens offense might do anything it wants against a Chargers defense that hasn't stopped anyone all season.

The Chargers rank in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA against both the run and the pass, and Baltimore is the No. 1 DVOA rushing attack — and lately, it hasn't even been close. Over the past six weeks, Baltimore's rushing DVOA metric is double No. 2 and quadruple No. 3. Whether it's Lamar Jackson's speed or Gus Edwards' power, the Ravens are built to run over, around, and through the Chargers.

For most teams, all those receiver injuries would be a major concern. For Baltimore, it might just push the Ravens even more toward what they do best — run the ball down opponents' throats. The Chargers are last in the league defensively by DVOA in the first half, so Baltimore has a great opportunity to get out early and play its game.

Just lean into the pain at this point, Chargers fans.

There's little question this team is talented, but they just can't put games away or handle their business late. Blame Justin Herbert, blame the defense, blame Brandon Staley and the coaching staff — yeah, especially blame them — but this team just keeps playing close games and fails to slam the door in new and innovative ways.

All but one Chargers game this season has finished within seven points and 23 of their past 28 games (82%) have finished within one touchdown. As long as the Chargers don't let go of the rope entirely, this is a nice teaser option if you have something to pair it with.

But if you're a masochist — and you're the Chargers fan, so you be the judge — why not just play this out the way you already know it's headed, with yet another close, heartbreaking loss?

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On paper, this feels like a great spot to back the home team that's lost a lot of close, unlucky games, but the Bolts have no home-field advantage and games aren't played on paper.

I love this matchup for the Ravens, and I have a really bad feeling about this one for the Chargers. I wonder if we might end up watching Brandon Staley's funeral live on Sunday Night Football.

How can I bet on Brandon Staley to get fired Monday morning?

How about a scenario where the Chargers totally let go of the rope, with Gus Edwards rumbling for a couple scores as Baltimore rips off multiple long, soul-sucking drives and runs Staley's defense right off the cliff for a big win?

Baltimore has 14-plus-point wins against Houston, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle and Cincinnati. When this team is cooking, it can absolutely demolish opponents.

Edwards has two scores in a 14-plus win in two of the past three games. I'll nibble the Staley-fired-before-the-end-of-the-game blowout special at +1800.