Buccaneers vs Saints Odds, Pick, Prediction | Monday Night Football Preview

Buccaneers vs Saints Odds, Pick, Prediction | Monday Night Football Preview article feature image

Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.

  • The Buccaneers 3.5-point favorites against the Saints on Monday Night Football.
  • Both teams lost last week, although Tampa Bay still leads the NFC South.
  • Chris Raybon previews the game and makes his betting pick.

Buccaneers vs Saints Odds

Monday, Dec. 5
8:15 p.m. ET
Buccaneers Odds
-104o / -118u
Saints Odds
-104o / -118u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Tom Brady was just 1-4 against the Saints during his Buccaneers tenure before notching a 20-10 victory over New Orleans in Week 2.

Should we back Brady with our Buccaneers vs Saints pick, expecting a similar result this time around or will New Orleans recapture its form of seasons past against Brady?

Let's make a Monday Night Football prediction.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Buccaneers and Saints match up statistically:

Saints vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA247
Pass DVOA246
Rush DVOA1314
Overall DVOA1715
Pass DVOA1012
Rush DVOA3121

Nothing is coming easy for the Bucs offense these days. Their offensive line can't generate any push in the run game, resulting in a league-worst 3.3 yards per carry. The Saints run defense has been up and down this season, but held the Tampa Bay offense to 72 yards on 30 carries in Week 2, and it should be able to hold the Bucs ground game in check once again.

Brady trusts the line less than ever, which is evidenced by his average depth of target (aDOT) and average time to throw (TTT) sinking to their lowest levels since he joined the Bucs:

  • 2020: 9.8 aDOT, 2.41 TTT
  • 2021: 8.2 aDOT, 2.33 TTT
  • 2022: 7.7 aDOT, 2.28 TTT

That figures to be even more pronounced with right tackle Tristan Wirfs (ankle) out of the lineup. The Saints rank 12th in DVOA against the pass and are giving up the fourth-lowest rate of 20-plus-yard passes (10.0%), so the Bucs offense could be a tough watch in this one.  Tampa Bay is 23rd in third-down conversion rate (38.0%) and 25th in red zone touchdown conversion rate (50.0%).

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The Saints offense has been sputtering of late and has failed to top 13 points in three of its past four games. One of the biggest issues is that defenses have seen enough tape of Taysom Hill and can no longer be caught off guard by his packages. Hill has recorded just 72 scoreless rushing yards on 19 carries over his past four games, and his five passing plays over that span have averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt. He's also been a non-factor as a receiver for the entire season, amassing just 31 yards and a touchdown on 80 routes.

Another big issue is the offensive line has struggled to generate any push for Alvin Kamara, who hasn't topped 3.5 yards per carry since Week 7. The Bucs run defense hasn't been as elite as in years past, but is up to 14th in DVOA and has allowed just 148 yards on 41 carries (3.6 YPC) to running backs over the past two games.

Andy Dalton has been serviceable for the Saints, but the Bucs' sixth-ranked pass defense in DVOA represents the toughest matchup he has faced all season. In four games against above-average pass defenses (Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, 49ers), Dalton is averaging just 187.5 yards passing and has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Saints have averaged just 12.3 points per game in those contests.

Chris Olave has had an excellent rookie year, but hasn't been a factor in the red zone and has just three touchdowns on 92 targets this season. Dalton will not have the services of Juwan Johnson (ankle), who leads the team with five touchdown catches.

Betting Picks

Both offenses figure to struggle, so this is a good spot for the under. Six of the Bucs past seven games have failed to top 40 points, and four of the Saints past five games have failed to top 40.

Per our Action Labs data, the under is 27-18-1 (60%) since 2010 when the visiting team is coming off a shutout. The Saints got blanked 13-0 by the 49ers last week.

And outdoor divisional unders are 25-11-1 (69%) this season and 61-38-1 (62%) since the start of last season.

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