Super Bowl Touchdown Picks: Eagles vs Chiefs Props for Dallas Goedert, Patrick Mahomes
Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Goedert (left), Patrick Mahomes (right).
It all comes down to this: We have Chiefs vs. Eagles props to bet for in Super Bowl 57 for the Lombardi Trophy.
I’ve been giving out anytime touchdown player props picks all season, and I have two Chiefs vs. Eagles props for this one.
Chiefs vs Eagles Player Props
Anytime Touchdown +220 (bet365)
Jalen Hurts has looked for Goedert early and often this season. The tight end has totaled 83 first-down catches with Hurts at quarterback – to put that into perspective, that’s more than his first three seasons combined (76). Goedert was on pace to surpass A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had he played a full slate.
Attacking the slot is the key to beating the Chiefs defense, as K.C. was 31st in touchdowns allowed to the slot position, which is where Goedert exclusively lines up.
Since coming off their bye week in Week 10, the Chiefs have given up at least one score to slot players in all but two games. The two games they didn’t allow one were in Week 13 and the AFC Championship game, both against the Bengals.
For what it’s worth, Goedert caught a TD when the Eagles faced the Chiefs in Week 4 last season.
Anytime Touchdown +550 (FanDuel)
This is my long-shot touchdown bet. My logic here is I think Mahomes’ ankle will be healthy enough that he won’t shy away from scrambling.
The probable MVP has five rushing touchdowns in 13 career playoff games. Mahomes also rushes more in the postseason, with 1.2 more carries per game compared to the regular season. Even when hindered in the AFC Championship Game, he had the critical run late to set up the game-winning field goal.
Mahomes face a stout Eagles defense that led the league in sacks, but they also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Philly also surrendered 6.5 yards per carry, which was 31st.
If you don’t want to bet on this, that’s understandable. But it should be the high ankle sprain that deters you from doing so, not the Eagles defense.
When Mahomes won the Super Bowl in 2020, the 49ers had the best rushing defense in the league. He still scored the first touchdown at +350 odds.
In Week 8 of this past regular season, he faced a Titans defense that ranked first in rush DVOA and had only given up one rushing touchdown to that point. Mahomes scrambled for over 50 yards in the second half and scored a touchdown (+400) to force overtime.
Does this mean I think he’s going over this rushing prop? Hell no! But I do think if the Chiefs are inside the 10-yard line, his TD prop is very live.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD
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