Super Bowl LVIII Matchups Ranked From a Betting Perspective
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Dre Greenlaw (right).
Multiple sportsbooks have posted odds for hypothetical Super Bowl LVIII matchups based on the four remaining teams — Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs — in the NFL playoffs. The Super Bowl is the most bet on sporting event of the year, and betting on the game begins before the two final teams are known.
From a storyline perspective, all four potential matchups have intrigue. Baltimore and San Francisco have been the consensus two best teams all season. If Kansas City makes the Super Bowl, the Chiefs will have a chance to be the first team to repeat as champions since the Patriots (2003-2004).
Lions-Chiefs would be a nice bookend to the season given they played the first game of the season. Detroit is also the only franchise to exist for the entire Super Bowl era and not play in the big game. The Lions have been basement dwellers in the NFL’s history, but Dan Campbell’s charisma and Jared Goff’s resurrection have fueled the ultimate underdog story in Motown.
We’re guaranteed a compelling storyline, but what’s the best Super Bowl matchup from a betting perspective? I ranked the four matches I’d most want to see as a Super Bowl bettor.
Super Bowl LVIII Matchups Ranked From a Betting Perspective
| Picks |
|---|
| 1. 49ers vs. Ravens |
| 2. 49ers vs. Chiefs |
| 3. Lions vs. Ravens |
| 4. Lions vs. Chiefs |
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Odds via FanDuel
When these teams met on Christmas Day, San Francisco closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. That implied the 49ers were a full 4.5-5 points better than everyone else in the NFL on a neutral field, but they certainly were not on that night.
I’d expect the Ravens to be a very public underdog and the heavily backed side in this matchup, given that the whole country watched what happened on Christmas and that the Ravens have since followed it up with wins against the Dolphins, Texans and Chiefs to make the Super Bowl. At least two of those wins were blowouts as well.
The underlying box score from that matchup was a lot more competitive than the final score indicated. The 49ers averaged 6.3 yards per play and moved the ball at will. Baltimore forced four Brock Purdy interceptions and sealed the win with an interception of Sam Darnold. I wouldn’t expect the 49ers to turn the ball over five times in a rematch, but Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has done a solid job against Kyle Shanahan-schemed offenses this season.
The Ravens have dominated NFC opponents straight up in the Lamar Jackson era, but both of their potential opponents got a look at Jackson earlier this season. Neither had any success, and the Ravens are the more well-rounded team overall. The Shanahan vs. Macdonald rematch would be the most fascinating to break down and bet.
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This is the only one of four potential matchups that didn’t already happen in the regular season, which adds in the unfamiliarity factor.
For the second straight year, we’d have the league’s best quarterback priced as an underdog against a team with a superior surrounding roster but inferior quarterback. The 49ers aren’t all that different from the Eagles of last season.
Philadelphia had a near MVP winner at quarterback surrounded by elite talent across the field on offense. Both had dominant running games that, on paper, would in theory overrun the Chiefs defense. Both had overwhelming skill-position talent at receiver and tight end. The Eagles closed as a short favorite and while these 49ers are more dominant offensively, Kansas City’s defense would be a tougher matchup this year compared to last.
Last year, the Chiefs had the ball last and beat an overvalued Eagles defense with long, methodical drives in the second half. This season, Kansas City’s defense grades out better than San Francisco’s, and you’d also have the “Mahomes as an underdog” angle for the third consecutive week in the playoffs.
The lookahead line is three for this game, but I’d expect the line to move under three if the Chiefs win at Baltimore. Mahomes would enter this matchup 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, and we’d probably all look back in 10 years and ask ourselves why Brock Purdy was laying nearly a field goal to Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs beat up on an injured 49ers team last season en route to the Super Bowl, and Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic pressures against the Shanahan machine makes for the most compelling matchup.
This matchup has the largest potential spread, but as a bettor, it’s not the least interesting matchup because of how lopsided the first meeting (in Week 7) was — a 38-6 Ravens blowout.
The Lions defense has had major issues stopping running quarterbacks and that’s the immediate problem for them in this game. In the first game, Jackson had nine carries for 36 yards and a touchdown.
The Lions offense couldn’t play worse than it did in the first meeting, too — Detroit began the game with three three-and-outs as Baltimore scored touchdowns on its first four drives. It was one of the least competitive games of the season, and the betting public and market would likely overreact to that result.
Detroit’s defense allowed 9.1 yards per play, but the unit has improved its pressure rate and run defense since then. The difference between Goff playing indoors in Las Vegas and on the road at Baltimore is a considerable one, especially given there were above-average winds for the first meeting in Baltimore.
One of the fun challenges in analyzing a matchup between teams is trying to see the case for the other side. We’ve already seen Baltimore destroy Detroit once. But there’s always a counter and adjustments to be made.
The Lions' coaching staff has established itself as a good one at making adjustments and you’d expect them to be a lot more competitive in a potential rematch.
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The worst secondary in the playoffs against the best quarterback of all time feels like the least interesting for bettors.
The Lions try to make up for their poor secondary by pressuring the quarterback and stopping the run, but it’s still not a good defense. Detroit might be able to force Purdy into mistakes in the NFC Championship, but pressuring Mahomes is a different animal. It doesn’t feel like a scheme or coaching issue for Detroit, just a lack-of-talent issue. Detroit’s defense matches up better against the Ravens offense, which is more run based and isn’t as consistent through the air.
Mahomes would be able to score at will against Detroit assuming the Chiefs are executing close to how they have in their last three games. That’s not to say the Lions wouldn’t be competitive and don't have a chance. It all comes down to Goff’s improvements against the blitz, where he’s had the best season of his career.
Travis Kelce didn’t play on opening night, when the Chiefs closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home. Detroit’s run offense could replicate the Buffalo blueprint and shorten the game, but this is the least interesting matchup for bettors.
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