Yes, football’s biggest showcase is still over three months away, but the season is in full swing, and the trade deadline sparked intense speculation among fans and massive movement across prediction markets.
Right now, the Kalshi board features clear front-runners in the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. However, the margins remain razor-thin, and there is still a lot of football left to be played.
Before we get into our Super Bowl odds breakdown, be sure to claim our Kalshi promo code and download the Action Network app to unlock the best props, picks and trading insights.
Now, let's dive in.
NFL Trade Deadline: Every Notable Deal Made by 4 p.m. ET
The Jacksonville Jaguars emerged as the most aggressive buyers, staging a major defensive overhaul to protect their AFC lead. They sent a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-rounder to the Philadelphia Eagles for interior anchor Jordan Davis, pairing him with veteran safety Jessie Bates III from Atlanta and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux from New Orleans.
On the other hand, Philadelphia shifted into seller mode, shipping Davis while fielding intense deadline interest for cornerback Riq Woolen.
The Indianapolis Colts also emerged as primary sellers, executing a heavy roster teardown. Indianapolis moved All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks and dealt defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers for significant draft capital.
When talking about quarterbacks, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off the biggest shocker, re-acquiring Kirk Cousins from the Las Vegas Raiders to jumpstart their playoff push, officially handing the keys in Vegas to rookie passer Fernando Mendoza.
Biggest Odds Movers After the Deadline
As anticipated, the latest major catalyst moving this market was today's NFL trade deadline.
A closer look at the 49ers' pricing curve reveals a clear upward trend, despite routine ups and downs along the way. The acquisition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to bolster an already formidable roster injected renewed market confidence into San Francisco.
The Bills entered the season as one of the league's most hyped contenders with sky-high expectations, and while that profile largely holds, their contract took a minor hit over the last 24 hours, dipping just over a percentage point.
Buffalo's biggest splash came in the secondary, acquiring safety Amani Hooker and a fifth-round selection from the Tennessee Titans in exchange for a second-round pick. Hooker is a plug-and-play upgrade who profiles as the missing piece in the Bills' back end, though only game reps down the stretch will prove if the investment pays off.
To me, the most interesting segment of the board lies with the chasing tier, specifically the Bears and Jaguars, currently occupying the third and fourth spots. Their Yes contracts are trading at an attractive discount and I believe both franchises are set to have a deep playoff run.
Jacksonville's trajectory is particularly noteworthy. Unlike the Colts, who executed a massive roster teardown, the Jaguars went all-in on a targeted defensive overhaul. They deployed their capital with clear strategic discipline, and I expect it to pay off immediately.
NFL Trade Deadline Winners and Losers
Drawing definitive conclusions about winners and losers in the immediate aftermath of the deadline can often be premature, but some transactions do stand out.
The Las Vegas Raiders surrendered veteran stability by shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, trusting their immediate offensive fortunes to rookie Fernando Mendoza. The Philadelphia Eagles also raised eyebrows across the NFL, operating as massive mid-season sellers despite sitting firmly in the playoff picture by dealing Jordan Davis and leaving Riq Woolen’s status unresolved.
Naturally, not every negotiation made it across the finish line. The Cincinnati Bengals suffered the afternoon's biggest heartbreak when a completed transaction for edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie abruptly collapsed at the 4 p.m. ET buzzer due to unresolved compensatory pick mechanics, leaving Cincinnati empty-handed.
