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The Vikings host the Bills tonight in an NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football showdown. Kickoff from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Min., is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Monday Night Football will broadcast on ESPN.
The Bills are 3-point favorites on the spread (Bills -3), with an over/under of 44.5. The Bills are -184 favorites on the moneyline and the Vikings are +154 underdogs.
Continue below for our Bills vs Vikings picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and player props for Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and DJ Moore.
Bills vs Vikings Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Vikings Odds
- Bills vs Vikings Spread: Bills -3 (-120), Vikings +3 (+100)
- Bills vs Vikings Over/Under: 44.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Bills vs Vikings Moneyline: Bills -184, Vikings +154
For the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 9 Odds & Action Report.
Bills vs Vikings Spread Prediction
The Vikings are going to be a trendy underdog pick on Monday Night Football because they are playing at home and catching a field goal.
Minnesota boasts the league’s best defense. The Vikings allow just 1.1 points per drive — undoubtedly, a remarkable feat. Admittedly, at the beginning of the week, that position seemed like the right side to be on. However, the matchup actually favors the elite offense of Buffalo after digging deeper into some advanced metrics.
The Bills can use heavy personnel to force Brian Flores and the Vikings into more basic looks as they look to exploit the potential weakness of this defense. The Vikings rank outside the top 10 in expected points added (EPA) against the rush and have worn down in the second half of games, allowing 5.3 yards per carry in the third and fourth quarters.
Even more importantly, Joe Brady has proven his teams can create explosive plays and remain efficient against Cover-2 looks and versus the blitz. In 55 games as offensive coordinator/head coach in Buffalo, Brady’s offense averages 0.14 EPA per play, the best for any coach in the league. Specifically against Cover 2 — a scheme Flores uses almost twice as much as the league average — the Bills' offensive efficiency increases significantly to 0.32 EPA/play.
Flores is an aggressive playcaller. The Bills have averaged 0.27 EPA/dropback against the blitz during Brady’s tenure. Josh Allen and his offense possess the tools and scheme to counteract the Vikings’ biggest strengths.
I’ll side with the best offense in the league at a very palatable price of -3 – I’d play this at -115 or better.
Pick: Bills -3
Bills vs Vikings Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
For the second week in a row, the Vikings meet a team that is essentially their inverse.
Minnesota is an elite defense with a struggling offense, ranking first in points per game allowed but 26th in points scored. Last week, the Vikigns took on the Lions — an elite offensive team with a bad defense.
The game in Detroit produced just 34 total points as the Vikings lost 19-15. By most measures, the Bills have an even better offense than the Lions, but also a worse defense – though the latter part of that equation is debatable. By that logic, we should see more scoring tonight for the Vikings.
The real question though is how moving from Kyler Murray to Carson Wentz impacts Minnesota’s offense. Murray is “injured” in what feels more like a soft benching, and has been one of the least effective QBs in the NFL this season, especially when you factor in the talent around him.
Wentz led the Vikings to their highest scoring game of the season in Week 1, and also their lowest in Week 2, but the latter was mostly due to the weather. I can’t see Wentz being any worse than Murray at this point — if anything he’s probably an upgrade.
With the total falling all the way to 43.5 at FanDuel, I’m reluctantly taking the over at -120 odds. I’d take the 44.5 lines elsewhere at lower juice, but feel way better about the bet at 43.5
Pick: Over 43.5
Carson Wentz Player Props
While the Vikings' offense has been terrible this season, this line is a bit too low.
Carson Wentz is a better passer than Kyler Murray, and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson all playing, the Vikings offense is fairly healthy.
Minnesota's standout defense has allowed its offense to get away with conservative playcalling, but the Bills are likely going to put up points and force a trailing game script.
While Wentz hasn't racked up much yardage in his two games this season (133 yards, 143 yards), he put up multiple 300-yard games last season. I have him projected for 20 yards over this number against a beatable Bills defense.
Pick: Carson Wentz Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-115)
DJ Moore Player Props
By Grant Neiffer
The Vikings have the toughest defense you can face, but these odds are a bit too high for DJ Moore given his role in the Bills offense.
Moore has battled injuries this season, but in the three full games he's played, he's had seven, 10, and eight targets and five red-zone opportunities.
While the Vikings defense has been deservedly been acclaimed this season, it's worth noting the only good offenses they've faced have been the Packers, Lions, and one half of the Bears with Caleb Williams.
The Bills can put up points against anyone, and I have the true odds for a Moore touchdown around +240.
Pick: DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+280 on DraftKings) | 26¢ YES on Polymarket
- Find First Touchdown picks for Monday Night Football in our expert's TD Model!
Josh Allen Player Props
If you read my betting preview for this game, then you know I think the Bills have a good chance of putting up a fat number of points tonight. And if that happens, it'll be because of Josh Allen.
This projects as a good scramble game for Allen, making his Anytime Touchdown prop at -105 an insulting number. It is ridiculous to get him at near-even odds.
Allen has nine rushing touchdowns this season and has scored a rushing touchdown in six of seven games. Allen's legs account for a third of the Bills' offensive touchdowns this season.
He has been priced around -165 to score a touchdown over the last few weeks, but the low game total is buying us value. I've also sprinkled bets on an escalator: Allen 2+ TDs and Allen First TD. Allen has two rushing touchdowns in three games this season.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
Escalator #1: Allen 2+ TDs (+500)
Escalator #2: Allen First TD (+550)
