The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) and Atlanta Falcons (0-0) face off in NFL Week 1 on Sunday, Sept. 7. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Buccaneers are favored by -1 with the over/under set at 47 total points. The Buccaneers are -120 moneyline favorites, and the Falcons are +100 home underdogs.
The old adage may claim divisional opponents play in low-scoring games because they know each other better than an average opponent, but the Falcons and Buccaneers don’t follow that trend. These teams combined for 123 total points in their two meetings a year ago. Inside a dome, there is no reason to expect anything different on Sunday. Don’t overthink it – this total has been set too low.
Find my Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction in my NFL Week 1 betting preview for this NFC South game below.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Falcons pick: Over 47
My Buccaneers vs Falcons best bet is on the over total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Buccaneers vs Falcons Week 1 Preview
Falcons-Bucs games in 2024 averaged 61.5 points per game.
One of those games went into overtime, but Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards in that contest when the Falcons hosted the Bucs. The total in that game was set at a measly 43.5 points.
Opposing passers threw for an astounding 4,464 yards against the Tampa Bay defense in 2024. The changes to the Bucs' defense do not inspire confidence that they will make improvements to decrease that number in 2025.
Heading into this season, there are still questions remaining when it comes to the Bucs’ secondary. Tykee Smith will start at safety opposite veteran Antoine Winfield. Smith played almost exclusively in the slot as a rookie, so he will essentially be playing his first game in the NFL at his new position.
Tampa Bay will start rookie Jacob Parrish in the slot at corner, and he should see plenty of action in this game, considering the Falcons use 11 personnel (three wide receivers) at one of the highest rates in the league.
Winfield is the big name on this defense, but he did not play well in pass coverage a season ago. According to Pro Football Focus, Winfield ranked 79th out of 96 qualified safeties in coverage grade.
I expect the Bucs defense to struggle in limiting Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
London had a season-high 12 receptions against this defense a year ago — Penix will look to him early and often; the left-hander excels at attacking the intermediate and deep parts of the field, and he doesn’t take many sacks.
When you combine the lack of negative plays, the potential downfield passing attack, and the efficient running game the elite Robinson brings, it’s difficult to envision the Tampa Bay defense getting many stops.
The Buccaneers offense will respond with a heavy dose of Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.
Oddsmakers are concerned about the injuries on this offense heading into the season, and there is also the unknown for Mayfield, going from Liam Coen to Josh Grizzard calling plays.
However, Grizzard was the passing game coordinator under Coen, and I do not believe the transition will be as steep as many are perceiving.
The real question mark in this game should surround the Falcons' pass rush. Can draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. make the difference in their first game?
This unit ranked 31st in sack rate in 2024. The lack of a pass rush crippled the Falcons' red-zone defense and third-down defense.
Atlanta surrendered 34 passing touchdowns a season ago, second-most in the league, and allowed teams to convert on third down at the second-highest rate.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs were the best on third downs in the NFL in 2024, and I don’t expect that to change much against a vulnerable Falcons defense.
Both teams should be very efficient with their possessions, and there are plenty of explosive playmakers on both sides to create chunk gains offensively.
This total should be flirting with the key number of 51, so I will gladly play the over at the current price with a few points of value in my pocket.
Pick: Over 47 (-110)
Spread
I have no play on the spread
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
My pick for this game is on the over total points.
