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Terry McLaurin Player Props: Expert Pick for Commanders vs Texans

Terry McLaurin Player Props: Expert Pick for Commanders vs Texans article feature image
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Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Terry McLaurin (left), Taylor Heinicke (right).

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Terry McLaurin Receptions

Prop Over 4.5 Receptions (-105; playable to -130)
Matchup Commanders vs. Texans
Time 1 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

Last week, the Commanders shocked the world when they served the Eagles their first loss of the season. A big part of the upset was due to the 8-catch, 121-yard performance from standout receiver, Terry McLaurin.

For Week 11, I’m looking to ride the Scary Terry wave.

After a pedestrian start, McLaurin has come on strong, pulling in at least five receptions in each of his last four games. His target share over that span is a whopping 30%.

The resurgence comes with the Commanders rolling with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Carson Wentz under center. With Heinicke as the starting quarterback for 15 of 17 games last season, McLaurin’s 118 targets in those games were good for a 25% target share.

It’s been another brutal season for the Texans defensively. Through the air, Houston’s defense ranks 25th in DVOA, per Football Oustiders, and 31st in DVOA against opponent’s No. 1 receiver.

And, yes, the Texans are brutal against the rush, too, and the Commanders are likely to lean on their ground game. However, Washington’s rushing attack has struggled as well, ranking 25th in DVOA.

The Commanders will find themselves in their fair share of passing downs — and I expect McLaurin to continue to be the first option.

Heinicke and McLaurin have a great thing going, and who am I to get in the way of their connection? I have McLaurin pulling down six catches in Week 11.

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