The Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots in the NFL Divisional Round on Sunday, Jan. 18. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 3:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN/ABC.
Our player props for this AFC Divisional Round game target Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, C.J. Stroud, Christian Kirk.
Let's dive into my Texans vs Patriots player props for NFL Divisional Round Sunday.
Texans vs Patriots Player Props
- Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+210 at Hard Rock)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)
- C.J. Stroud Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
- Christian Kirk Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetRivers)
Texans vs Patriots Prop Picks, Preview
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+210)
It’s been a strong season for Hunter Henry, who leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns with eight. Not only that, but he’s also second behind Stefon Diggs in targets and has become a crucial part of the offense.
Henry’s been on a heater lately, with three touchdowns over the past month, including a score in the win over the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
What really stands out here is that the formidable Texans defense has allowed a disproportionate number of touchdowns to tight ends compared to other positions. They’ve given up just 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, yet have allowed eight to tight ends.
If that incredible Texans defense has an Achilles’ heel, it’s the tight end position, and Henry is in a prime spot to take advantage.
Pick: Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+210; Hard Rock)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
The Patriots backfield has been a nightmare to predict this season.
During Rhamondre Stevenson’s time off the field with injury, it looked like rookie TreVeyon Henderson had done enough to take the 1A role to Stevenson’s 1B. However, it now appears that Stevenson is back in the lead, with the team perhaps trusting his experience at this crucial point in the season.
Stevenson had 10 carries to Henderson’s nine against the Chargers, but the former was far more effective, averaging 5.3 yards per carry compared to just 3.0. Stevenson is likely to get the bulk of the carries again here and should do enough to clear 38 yards, a mark he’s hit in six straight games.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-111; DraftKings)
C.J. Stroud Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-110)
With question marks surrounding Nico Collins and the chance of snow, it’s easy to see why C.J. Stroud’s passing yards total is set so low.
However, there are reasons to believe the third-year quarterback can clear 206.5 passing yards, especially given how his performances have improved as the season has progressed.
Stroud has thrown for 207 or more passing yards in nine of 15 games this season, including four of seven since returning from a three-week injury in the middle of the year.
He racked up 250 yards against the Steelers last weekend, despite what would be considered a below-average performance by his standards. Additionally, the Patriots’ defense may be somewhat overrated, ranking 20th in DVOA.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-110; bet365)
Christian Kirk Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Whether Nico Collins plays or not, this feels like a very generous line for Christian Kirk, and one that’s an absolute must-smash if the Texans’ lead wideout doesn’t suit up on Sunday.
Kirk delivered a season-high performance last week, hauling in eight of nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown.
That said, he’s been a useful part of this offense all season long. He’s averaged 4.7 targets per game and 29.4 receiving yards on the year.
Over the past month, his usage has ticked up to 5.25 targets per game. The Patriots defense is overrated, and Kirk should see enough volume to clear this number.
Pick: Christian Kirk Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetRivers)
Editor's Note: A parlay of these props is not the author's formal recommendation. These picks have value as straight bets.
Texans vs Patriots Player Prop Bets
- Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+210 at Hard Rock)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)
- C.J. Stroud Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
- Christian Kirk Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetRivers)
