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Week 6 Survivor Pool Picks: Can We Trust the Packers?

Week 6 Survivor Pool Picks: Can We Trust the Packers? article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

Last week was nothing special in Survivor Pools.

Around 15% of entries were knocked out with the Jaguars and a handful were taken out by the Packers; but the popular picks were able to make it through.

However, most of the pools used either the Bills or Buccaneers last week, so having them at your disposal later on could be a big advantage.

Although, it does appear a lot of the entries that used the Bills vs. Steelers last week are turning their sights on the Buccaneers against the same Steelers team in Week 6.

If not the Bucs, then players really like the Rams this week against the Panthers. I'd expect around two-thirds of entries to submit either Buccaneers or Rams.

Should we fade both? Is one a better option than the other?

Let's dive into the data and find out. Here are the projected win percentages for Week 6 and beyond.

Week 6 Survivor Pool Analysis

Now, with the help of Pool Genius, I can input my win probabilities and use their expected value calculator to see which teams are offering the most value.

Here are the top ten teams from a value standpoint in Week 7.

The Eagles and Ravens are the clear top options for expected value this week. They are both clear favorites to win but since both are going against 4-1 teams, the public is staying away from both.

The issue with both teams is they are really good, and offer plenty of future value as well.

Note that the two popular options of Rams and Bucs do not appear in the list. I think both are bad plays this week; I'd rather take the Panthers moneyline than play the Rams in survivor pools this week.

In the second tier of picks, there are some intriguing options.

The 49ers are solid road favorites against the Falcons but much like the top options, offer plenty of future value.

The Vikings and Bears are both interesting punt options. Minnesota faces a third-string quarterback and Chicago faces soon to be third-string quarterback Carson Wentz.

If you are in a very deep league or a pool where you make two picks in some weeks, I think both are decent options.

My Pick: Green Bay Packers (vs New York Jets)

In smaller pools, I believe it's fine to take the Eagles or Ravens and just scoop up the EV while you can.

In larger pools, I want to save some of that future value and take the Packers now.

Surprisingly, this is the easiest remaining game on the schedule for Green Bay — and there aren't many options left.

Next week at the Commanders or Week 9 at the Lions are in consideration, but I'd rather play the Pack at home this week against the Jets.

Coming off a bad loss to the Giants, the public perception of this team is low and are only projected to be picked 10% of the time.

Avoid the two popular teams this week and root for Aaron Rodgers and company to get back on track against the Jets in Lambeau on Sunday.

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