Sunday’s 1 PM ET window brings 7 games, from Dallas chasing a road win in Indianapolis to a pair of home underdogs in Washington and Carolina. Prediction markets show a clear pecking order among early favorites, and two of the week’s biggest names, the Cowboys and Lions, are both on the road. Here’s how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing every early game, where the sharpest line moves happened, and what the Madrid opener looks like before the 1 PM window even starts.
Week 9 early slate: odds for every 1 PM game
Seven games make up Sunday’s 1 PM ET window, split between Fox and CBS. Dallas is the largest favorite of the group at -5.5 on the road against Indianapolis, while Washington and Carolina are the only home teams catching points. The table below lists the spread, total and moneyline price on both Kalshi and Polymarket heading into the weekend.
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Kalshi | Polymarket |
| Cowboys vs. Colts | Dallas -5.5 | 51.5 | Cowboys 69-70% | Cowboys 70% |
| Giants vs. Eagles | New York -3.5 | 38.5 | Giants 62-63% | Giants 62% |
| Lions vs. Dolphins | Detroit -6.5 | 50.5 | Lions 74-75% | Lions 75% |
| Ram vs. Commanders | Los Angeles -4.5 | 48.5 | Rams 67% | Rams 67% |
| Jets vs. Chiefs | Kansas City -9.5 | 47.5 | Chiefs 81% | Chiefs 81% |
| Browns vs. Saints | New Orleans -3 | 42.5 | Saints 61% | Saints 60% |
| Broncos vs. Panthers | Denver -2.5 | 44.5 | Broncos 58% | Broncos 58% |
The two platforms mostly agree on these games. The closest thing to a real gap this week was Rams vs. Commanders, where Kalshi had Los Angeles as high as 70% earlier on but has since settled at 67%, right where Polymarket already had them. Everything else sits within a point or two across both markets.
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Biggest line moves: Giants-Eagles total drops 6, Jets-Chiefs total rises 6
Not every number held steady. The Giants vs. Eagles total fell 6 points, from 44.5 at the open down to 38.5, one of the sharpest swings on the board. Philadelphia also benched quarterback Tanner McKee for Joe Milton midweek, a change that moved pricing on both sides of that game, according to VegasInsider.
The Jets vs. Chiefs total went the other way, climbing from 41.5 to 47.5: a six-point jump that outpaces nearly every other total change in Week 9. Kansas City is still the largest favorite of the early window at -10, but the total swing points to a market now expecting more offense from both sides than it did a few days ago.
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Cowboys at Colts and Lions at Dolphins: the road favorites
Dallas and Detroit are the two teams this week turning someone else’s stadium into home turf. The Cowboys are -5.5 at Indianapolis, with Kalshi’s price near 70% and the total sitting at 51.5, the second-highest number of the early slate. The Colts have dropped four of their last five, while Dallas is still shaking off a tie against Arizona that got away late.
Detroit’s trip to Miami comes with the wider spread of the two, -7, and a shorter price on both platforms at around 75%. The Lions needed a late touchdown to hold off Minnesota last week, and the Dolphins are 1-6 and fading. The total here, 50.5, is the highest of any 1 PM game.
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Rams at Commanders and Giants at Eagles: where the money is going
Both of this week’s tighter-looking spreads actually carry different levels of conviction once you check the moneyline. Los Angeles is priced at 67% on Kalshi to beat Washington: a cleaner favorite than the 4.5-point spread alone suggests.
Giants vs. Eagles sits much closer to even. New York is favored at 63% on Kalshi, the tightest moneyline gap of any 1 PM matchup this week. Philadelphia, even with a rough recent stretch, is still pricing out as a live underdog rather than a long shot.
Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (9:30 AM ET): the early kickoff
Sunday opens hours before the rest of the slate, with Cincinnati and Atlanta kicking off at 9:30 AM ET from Madrid’s Santiago Bernabéu. The Bengals are favored at 62% on Kalshi, fresh off an overtime win over Tennessee that needed a late touchdown just to force extra time. Atlanta hasn’t scored since upsetting San Francisco two weeks ago, getting shut out 16-0 at Tampa Bay last Sunday. The total sits at 52.5, tied for the highest number across the entire early window.
Sunday early games schedule and how to watch
Here’s the full early window, all times Eastern:
- 9:30 AM: Bengals at Falcons (Madrid); NFL Network.
- 1 PM: Cowboys vs. Colts, Giants vs. Eagles, Lions vs. Dolphins, Rams vs. Commanders, Jets vs. Chiefs, Browns vs. Saints, Broncos vs. Panthers; Fox and CBS.
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