Sunday features only three games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Kings-Golden Knights game at 10:30 pm ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Kings W Dustin Brown over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)
10:30 p.m. ET
The Kings have gotten a recent shooting spike from Brown, who is averaging 3.33 shots per game over the past month (97th percentile) vs. 2.74 over the past year (91st). The Golden Knights have gone the other way defensively in the short term, ranking in the 95th percentile in shot attempts allowed over that same time. Given the favorable matchup and recent history, even if Brown starts to regress back to his long-term mean, the over still looks like a strong value.
Golden Knights C Erik Haula under 2.5 shots on goal (-140)
10:30 p.m. ET
Recency bias may lead you to the over, but despite Haula’s double-overtime goal in Game 2 the fact remains that he’s far from a high-volume shooter. Over the past year, he has notably averaged 2.3 shots per game (80th), but over the past month his shots have plummeted to 1.82 per game (66th). The matchup is brutal — Los Angeles allowed the eighth-fewest shots on goal this year — and Vegas, unsurprisingly, own the slate’s second-lowest Expected Corsi For. Haula has registered two or fewer shots in 12 of his last 14 games.
Pictured above: Erik Haula