The Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes meet in Game 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Hurricanes are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-130o / +106u). The Hurricanes are a -200 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +164 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 5.5 -130o / 106u | +164 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 5.5 -130o / 106u | -200 |
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+130), Canadiens +1.5 (-160)
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Over/Under: 5.5 (-130o / +106u)
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Moneyline: Canadiens +164, Hurricanes -200
Canadiens vs Hurricanes Polymarket Odds
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Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Preview
Montreal Canadiens
Canada's last hope to get one of its own across the finish line as Stanley Cup champion ironically rests with the last Canadian team to do it, 33 years ago.
The central question now is how much Montreal has left in the tank.
After back-to-back seven-game series, it's hard to imagine the Canadiens will have much remaining against the East's top seed, regardless of Jakub Dobes' statement that he could play 40 more.
Whether he or the Canadiens can keep dodging bullets is another matter entirely, because the truth is Montreal was noticeably outplayed in both Game 7s and is fortunate to still be standing.
Against Tampa Bay in the first round, the Canadiens escaped with a win despite managing just a 30.83% expected goal share. They nearly replicated that same precarious situation against Buffalo, posting a 38.9% share in that deciding game. Across those two elimination games combined, Montreal was outchanced in expected goals 7.5 to 4.3.
The numbers paint a picture of a team living on borrowed time, but sometimes pucks just need to bounce in your direction, and the Canadiens have been catching a lot of them lately.
That said, it's not entirely fair to write them off as a fluke either. The top line will need to get going, but Montreal has found something in the combination of Alex Newhook, Jake Evans, and Ivan Demidov.
That trio has posted a 58.32% expected goal share and outscored opponents 6 to 1 while on the ice together this playoffs. Montreal also went 3-0 against Carolina in the regular season, outscoring the Hurricanes 15-8, with two of those wins coming in late March.
With Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield up front, that revamped second line, and Lane Hutson on the back end, and there is a ton of talent throughout the roster.
The other positive is obviously Dobes. When some of the stats are working against you, goaltending has to bail you out, and that is precisely what he has done. He stopped 65 of 68 shots in those two Game 7s, and across the full playoff run, his 11.1 GSAx sits right behind Fredrik Andersen for the top mark among all netminders.
You can trace Montreal's emergence as a contender this season back to finding stability in goal, and if that version of Dobes shows up again, this series will be closer than the books suggest.
Carolina Hurricanes
11 days of rest versus 72 hours is the narrative heading into this one.
Normally that kind of layoff would be a concern, but given Carolina's recent history of postseason heartbreak, a mental reset might actually be exactly what this group needs.
The Hurricanes are heavy favorites and rightfully so, posting the best expected goal share in the playoffs at 62% and an xGA/60 of 2.34. That said, there is a feel of a team of destiny surrounding Montreal, and Carolina has enough to account for on the Canadiens’ roster to avoid any sense of complacency.
Like the Canadiens, getting the top line going has to be the priority, not for just this round but if Carolina finds themselves advancing to the next. Svechnikov, Aho, and Jarvis have struggled in their minutes together this playoffs, something broken down further in my pick for Game 1.
The saving grace is that Carolina has the depth to absorb it. Sweeping two teams while getting next to nothing offensively from that unit speaks to its roster construction.
The defense has been reliable, allowing just 10 goals across eight playoff games while posting the second best xGF/60 mark of 3.79 at the other end. There are multiple ways this team can win, and that is a difficult thing to game plan against.
The other storyline everyone seems to be waiting on is Frederik Andersen turning into, well, Frederik Andersen. He is 4-10 in conference finals appearances and has surrendered four or more goals in eight of those games.
So far this postseason he has been nothing short of spectacular, leading all netminders with an 11.2 GSAx, a .950 SV%, and a 1.12 GAA across all eight starts.
Montreal is a dangerous opponent, but probably not dangerous enough over a seven-game series against Carolina's defensive structure to drag him back into that territory. This feels like the year Carolina finally punches through to the Cup Final again, holding the upper hand in the ability to control play and chances on both ends.
The Bell Centre is always a tough building to play in, but the more telling games in this series will likely come in Raleigh. Carolina went 29-10-2 at home this season, though Montreal was no slouch on the road, posting a 24-9-8 record and winning three in a row away from home this playoffs, on top of two road Game 7s. If this series plays out the way I expect, Carolina in six is what I would predict, and not a particularly stressful one at that.
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Prediction
An interesting subplot to watch throughout this series will be the top lines on both sides, neither of which have done much offensively.
Carolina's first unit of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis has posted a 40.22% expected goal share with zero goals and just 1.58 xGF when on the ice together at 5-on-5 this playoffs.
Montreal's top line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield has been almost equally as bad by the scoresheet, getting outscored 1-8 with a 41.40% expected goal share at 5-on-5.
That brings me to something worth repeating, which is the second line of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Jackson Blake. That trio has won the scoring battle 9 to 1 at 5-on-5 while putting up a blistering 72.29% expected goal share in those minutes.
Hall has led the way with 12 points on three goals and nine assists, recording a point in seven of Carolina's eight playoff games. His implied probability to record a point is below Svechnikov, Aho, and Jarvis, with odds not far from even-money on FanDuel. Seems like an oversight to me given his production.
With plenty of unknowns heading into Game 1, including how the 11-day layoff affects Carolina and whether Montreal's run of good fortune has dried up, the point leader on one of the hottest lines in the playoffs feels like the right place to start.
Pick: Taylor Hall 1+ Points (-111, FanDuel)
