The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet in Game 7 of the NHL Playoffs on Monday. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Sabres are priced at +210 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (+100o/-120u). The Sabres are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -272 | 5.5 +105o / -125u | -105 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +220 | 5.5 +105o / -125u | -115 |
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+210), Canadiens +1.5 (-260)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Over/Under: 5.5 (+100o/-120u)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Moneyline: Canadiens +100, Sabres -120
Canadiens vs Sabres Polymarket Odds
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Canadiens vs. Sabres Preview
Buffalo Sabres
Neither team has found much consistency throughout this chaotic, back-and-forth series. Entering Games 4 and 6, it felt as though Montreal had taken a clear upper hand, but the Sabres won both of those matchups somewhat convincingly. The Habs will hope to see the lack of game-over game continuity occur once again in Game 7, after what was a downright embarrassing performance in Game 6.
The Canadiens scored three goals on their first four shots of the game, and two of those would generally be expected to be saved. Head coach Lindy Ruff gave a quick hook to Alex Lyon as a result, and from that point on, the Sabres absolutely decimated the Canadiens, scoring seven unanswered goals while allowing few meaningful scoring chances.
The Sabres led 16-to-11 in high-danger scoring chances in Game 6, but reviewing the game would suggest even those splits did not entirely encapsulate the disparity of true defensive breakdowns.
At even strength, the Sabres have played to a 49.36% expected goal share in the series. Though in most matchups one team has seemingly held a clear upper hand at even strength, throughout the series, the Sabres hold a 49.36% expected goal share, and in total, it's been quite competitive.
The majority of Ruff's lineup changes were indisputably effective in Game 6. Perhaps the most notable was shifting Zach Benson, who's arguably been the best Sabres forward in the series, up to the top line alongside Tage Thompson and Josh Norris. You could argue it shouldn't have taken six games for the move to happen given how Buffalo's top line had fared, but finally making the adjustment did work out quite well.
Ryan McLeod was also more impactful while playing on the second line alongside Josh Doan and Alex Tuch, while Konsta Helenius continued to offer a positive impact after being inserted into the series in Game 4.
On the blue line, Luke Schenn was replaced by Zach Metsa, who did appear to be an upgrade based on his superior mobility.
One reason this particular Game 7 could be much lower scoring than the rest of the series is the fact that power plays will likely be much less common than they have been throughout the majority of the series. Both teams have had a lot of power play opportunities in the series, and neither penalty kill has been effective, as the Sabres have succeeded on 37.5% of opportunities while the Canadiens unit has clicked 28% of the time.
While the trends and common logic suggest that this game could be much less chaotic, the one concern towards that notion is that neither of Buffalo's goaltenders feels very stable right now.
Given that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 18-of-18 shots after Lyon was pulled in Game 6, it would be quite surprising to see Ruff go back to Lyon after he was pulled. Luukkonen has struggled to a -0.5 GSAx and .874 save percentage this postseason across five starts, but was rock-solid in the regular season, playing to a +10.5 GSAx.
Montreal Canadiens
Following Game 6, Canadiens Captain Nick Suzuki stated, "It's probably the worst game we've played, so we're only going up". It was definitely a fair assessment, as being gifted a 3-1 lead before ultimately losing in a non-competitive manner is highly uncommon this time of year.
The road team is now 4-2 in this series, and in combination, the two sides have played to a record of 10-3 this postseason. The Canadiens have experience in this situation, as they knocked off the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 in Round 1, though the performance was far from convincing and revolved around an excellent performance from Jakub Dobes in goal.
Dobes will be looking to respond after being pulled in Game 6, but the majority of Buffalo's goals were quite standard and his ugly stat line was mainly due to how poorly the team played in front of him. Dobes holds a +8.7 GSAx and a .906 save percentage across 13 starts this postseason.
Though the Canadiens have not typically dominated the overall run of play this postseason, they have mainly done a fairly good job of limiting plays through the seams and odd-man rushes and allowing Dobes to be set and square to shooters. They have allowed 2.7 xGA/60 at even strength this postseason and have generally defended more effectively than was to be expected based on their regular season.
Head coach Martin St. Louis's will undoubtedly be pressing the need for a sharper defensive performance and heightened defensive structure. Teams generally tend to play quite conservatively in Game 7 and look to win by being the side that makes fewer mistakes.
If Montreal can play a sharper defensive game, Dobes certainly still feels to offer a meaningful edge in goal, but it needs to clean things up defensively for that edge to come to fruition.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction
From the perspective of betting a side, this matchup feels close to a coin flip, and it's hard to make a meaningful case for either team. The series has been quite back-and-forth overall, and there have been numerous points where it feels as though one team has a clear upper hand; the script has then flipped entirely.
Oddsmakers have guarded hard against the Game 7 under trend by dropping the total by a full goal after an 11-goal shootout in Game 6. As a result, I'll feel pretty dumb for betting the under if we get another barnburner, but there are some strong arguments that suggest this game will tighten up considerably as we typically see in Game 7s.
While bad goaltending has played a role in the high totals, there has also been an abnormal amount of fluky goals redirected throughout the series. Both teams' power plays have been dominant and have received plenty of time to work, but man-advantage situations will likely be much less common in Monday's matchup.
In addition, Game 7s tend to feature most lower scorelines, and oddsmakers are obviously placing some weight on that fact, given that this game features a total of 5.5, when the other six games of the series have averaged 7.28 goals. Dating back to the 2010 postseason Game 7, unders have gone 39-22-5 and yielded an ROI of +17.6%.
At a price of -120, I'm willing to bet that this chaotic, high-scoring series ultimately does wrap with a cagey, low-event Game 7 that comes in under 5.5 goals.
Pick: Under 5.5 Total Goals -120 (FanDuel, Play to -125)
