NHL Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Tonight
(Photo by Alexis R. Knight/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: The St. Louis Blues celebrate
Here are my NHL best bets tonight, featuring my favorite predictions for the Thursday's slate.
The NHL odds board features betting options for tonight's 12 games. Let's dive into the NHL bets I'm eyeing for tonight, including a side and a player prop.
Typically I don't wait for goalie confirmations to lock in bets as I can typically guess which goalie a team is likely to start and waiting for official confirmation often costs line value on the sharper side.
This morning is a little different because I believe the gap between Jacob Markstrom and Dustin Wolf is more significant than people seem to believe, and that the final decision is hard to predict. With the Blues ticking down to -130 (FanDuel), I don't want to wait anymore. Markstrom started Tuesday versus Chicago, so I'm going to assume the Flames opt to continue offering Wolf a chance to play at the NHL level in an already lost season.
Let's stick with the thought of the Flames being in a lost season. We faded the Flames successfully against Chicago on Tuesday, and I don't think now is the time to stop.
Their defensive core is far from what it has been over the past two seasons. What was once a strength is now a weakness, and I continue to believe their power-rating hasn't dropped enough. Before being traded, Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin compiled one of the best second pairings in the league this season.
Oliver Kylington's play has tailed off considerably, and the Flames second pair is now a notable weakness. In 138.9 minutes together, Kylington and Rasmus Andersson have played to an expected goal share of just 40.9%.
Calgary's offensive play has also tailed off considerably. It owns just a 3.06 xGF/60 rating in March, which ranks 19th in the league.
The Blues enjoy a legitimate home-ice advantage as they own a 21-12-3 record this season. They have legitimate offensive stars in the top-six which provide an edge over the Flames and — if Wolf starts — will hold a considerable starting edge in goal.
The Blues haven't been as strong as their record suggests under new head coach Drew Bannister, but I still can't arrive at a betting number of -130 in this matchup. Anything better than -140 is a play on St. Louis for me.
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The Flyers played exceptionally well against the East's best recently, and a matchup versus the Canadiens offers a much more palatable matchup for their top shooters. Over the past seven games, Philadelphia has played the Bruins (twice), Panthers, Hurricanes, Leafs (twice) and Rangers.
John Tortorella's top line of Morgan Frost, Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett has been dominant lately. They have played to a 63.5% expected goal share in 109.9 minutes together this season, and have generated 3.60 xGF/60.
We should expect that unit to generate a ton of chances tonight and can therefore target a number of props. If you are DFS player, it is certainly a unit to consider stacking.
The price that really jumped out to me was Konecny to record Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at +120 (Bet365). He has trended lower than you might expect since being partnered with Frost and Tippett, but his shot attempt totals suggest his average is about to rise.
Konecny has averaged 6.71 shot attempts per game over the past seven games and all of those matchups have been against teams far tougher than the Canadiens, who have allowed 30.28 shots per 60 since the All-Star break.
Anything better than +110 for Konecny to record Over 3.5 shots on goal is worthy of a look and my favorite play in this matchup. Backing Konecny to score at +130 would be my substitute if I was a FanDuel user, and Frost to record Over 0.5 points at +105 is another play that holds some value.
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