NHL Best Bets Tonight: Nicholas Martin’s Top Picks and Predictions for Saturday (February 24)
Winslow Townson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Daccord #35 and Tye Kartye #52 of the Seattle Kraken
Here are my NHL best bets tonight with my favorite picks and predictions for the Saturday, February 24, hockey slate.
Today's NHL schedule kicks off with a puck drop at noon ET, and the final game gets started at 10:30 p.m. ET. So we've got a full day of hockey ahead with no shortage of betting options.
However, for my NHL best bets tonight, I'm targeting two games – one in the 7 p.m. ET window and one at 10 p.m. ET – with moneyline plays.
Check them out below.
NHL Best Bets Tonight | Picks for Saturday, Feb. 24
Whether the Canucks are truly the best team in hockey or a team that has run with some favorable luck is a debate that has raged this NHL season among fans, analysts and handicappers. Their PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) has sat at historic marks, though after their losing skid, it is now down to 103.7.
There are only so many things that any team can actually do notably different compared to the rest of the league in terms of creating quality chances and suppressing high-danger chances. In time, teams with a sky-high PDO are always expected to trend downward, even if they do offer some tactics that force the high shooting and save percentages.
The Canucks have lost four straight games in multi-goal fashion. This week has clearly been the low point this season, and now the doubters are out in full force. This get-right spot feels like it could offer a massive glimpse into who the Canucks truly are.
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Teams will sometimes move away from what has made them successful and perhaps display a little complacency. That has been the Canucks lately. They played through a tough schedule this week that culminated with a horrid showing Thursday in Seattle while skating in their third game in four nights.
The Kraken ran them out of the building with a feverish work rate while the Canucks looked like a team hoping to skill their way out of trouble. There's no excuse for that happening here against a Bruins side that will be playing a third road game in four nights themselves.
The recent underlying results between these teams are still quite even too. Over the last 15 games, the Bruins hold a 52.43% expected goal rating while the Canucks hold a 51.99% mark.
The Bruins are only 3-4-2 since the All-Star break, and their 4-0 victory over the Canucks in Boston on Feb. 8 was their only overly sharp performance. They will be without Hampus Lindholm and also likely Matt Grzelcyk from the blue line in this matchup.
We should expect the Canucks to get back to what has made them a top side this season while making life tough on a Bruins team that has been unconvincing of late.
Whether the Canucks ultimately prove to be a Presidents' Trophy-level team or not, it's clear they will hold an elite power play, are rostering a top-five goaltender, and have a high-quality top six. The loss of Dakota Joshua hurts, but losing one third-liner at this time of year is not an acceptable excuse for this week's play.
It feels like a good get-right spot for the Canucks, and I believe we have the right price to bet on it at -110.
The Pick: Vancouver Canucks ML (-110 BetRivers | Play to -125)
We will target another desperate home side with our second pick and back the Kraken in a pivotal wild-card showdown.
Both of these teams are playing at a higher level than their records suggest, and the Wild solidified that case last night in Edmonton. They are succeeding in large due to incredible performances from their top line of Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek. But they're not receiving substantial contributions elsewhere.
The Kraken have the depth to take advantage of other matchups down the lineup card, and they have done an excellent job lately of limiting opposing stars. They have been excellent defensively in recent wins over Boston, New York and Vancouver, as well as in their overtime defeat to Detroit. As a result, both of their goaltenders are thriving.
Given that it is a back-to-back spot, the Wild are likely to start Marc-Andre Fleury, which offers the Kraken a notable edge in goal. Fleury has played to a -4.8 GSAx and .897 save % across 27 games this season. Away from just his poor numbers, it's fair to say he often has not looked very good anymore, and at times I think that thought gets swept under the rug because he is a beloved legend of the game.
As they are now playing at full health again, the Kraken's forward corps suddenly looks pretty strong:
- Jared McCann (19) – Matty Beniers (10) – Jordan Eberle (7)
- Jaden Schwartz (17) – Alex Wennberg (21) – Andre Burakovsky (95)
- Eeli Tolvanen (20) – Yanni Gourde (37) – Oliver Bjorkstrand (22)
- Brandon Tanev (13) – Ty Kartye (52) – Kailer Yamamoto (56)
The third line of Tolvanen, Gourde and Bjorkstrand is capable of shutting down opposing top units, and it continues to be a key strength relative to other rosters. In 466.8 minutes together at even strength, they have played to a 58.3 expected goal percentage.
What's been more notable recently is that Matty Beniers is trending upward and playing like a No. 1 center again. His stellar form last season was one of the main reasons for the Kraken's surprising level of success, and now he is starting to play at the same level.
Both of those lines should see heavy usage up against the Kaprizov line, which continues to carry the Wild in terms of production. If Seattle can keep the Wild's red-hot top unit in check, they have a great chance to control the other minutes of play in this matchup and find success.
With a likely goaltending matchup of Fleury vs. Daccord, I believe the Kraken deserve to be a larger favorite and are worthy of a bet down to -145.
The Pick: Seattle Kraken Moneyline (-134 at FanDuel| Play to -145)
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