Tonight’s NHL Best Bets and Picks
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Harvey-Pinard
Here are tonight's NHL best bets.
The NHL odds board features betting options for a full slate of 11 games today.
Tonight's NHL Best Bets
| Predators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 6.5 110o / -134u | +152 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 6.5 110o / -134u | -184 |
For the first time since being fired in June of 2022 by the Panthers, Andrew Brunette will return to Amerant Bank Arena as a head coach Thursday.
Brunette earned a Jack Adams Award nomination in his only season as head coach with Florida, but was dismissed after a disappointing second-round playoff exit. He was an assistant coach on last year's 113-point Devils team before earning a head coach job in Nashville this season, where he has lead the Predators to a shocking 40-25-4 record.
It seems more and more evident that Brunette is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the game right now, and that his work in Florida and New Jersey was actually a little underrated.
The Predators have put up 3.26 goals for per game this season. Over the entirety of the season, they own the seventh-best xGF/60 in the league at 3.47. Both of those marks are drastic overachievements upon preseason expectations for the Preds' roster.
Since the Predators' 9-2 drubbing at the hands of the Stars on February 15th, they have played to a 15-0-2 record. Most of those games haven't been particularly close, either, as they have played to a +36 goal differential. Their 60.37% expected goal rating in those 17 games paces the league by a wide margin.
They face arguably the NHL's toughest opponent here in the Florida Panthers, who will look to avoid losing three straight for only the second time this season. Still, the Panthers have looked less dominant of late with an expected goals share of 52.14% over the last 10.
They have lost two of three since Aaron Ekblad's injury, and could ultimately skate without Matthew Tkachuk in this matchup as well.
When you consider the actual talent on the Preds' roster, this recent run is likely to be somewhat of a high-water mark. We know they aren't truly the very best in the league. Still, at +160 I don't think we need to overrate what the Predators really are to bet them, particularly with the Panthers looking closer to the pack right now.
Best Bet: Predators Moneyline (+160 at DraftKings) | Play to +154
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| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 6.5 104o / -128u | +230 |
| Canucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -113 | 6.5 104o / -128u | -285 |
The Canucks have not been a true offensive powerhouse more often than not over the last eight weeks. That should give the Canadiens a good avenue to make this somewhat of a rock fight, like we saw Wednesday when the Canadiens gave the Oilers all they could handle.
The Canucks are 10-7-3 over their last 20 games, but more importantly in betting terms, just 10-10 straight up. They have played to a -4 goal differential in that span as their shooting percentage has finally trended below league average at 9.53.
Thatcher Demko had clearly been the second-best goaltender in hockey this season prior to his injury. Having Casey DeSmith playing in his place offers a significant drop-off as result, and we should see DeSmith start again tonight. He has played to a -0.5 GSAx and .897 save % across 22 appearances.
Elias Lindholm has struggled since joining the team, and the Canucks are getting caved in pretty badly when he is on the ice. Dakota Joshua isn't a big name, but his absence has been notable from a bottom six that isn't producing like it was for most of the season.
Credit Rick Tocchet for getting the absolute most out of Tyler Myers this season, but "Chaos Giraffe" has started to look more like a below average top-four defender again.
The Canadiens' recent on-ice product has been better than their record indicates. They have lost a lot of games versus top teams either in overtime or by one goal recently. If a few of those games had gone their way they probably are getting a little more credit for their improved defensive play.
Over the last 15 games, the Canadiens have played to a 49.15% expected goal share. In that span, their overtime games versus to Edmonton, Boston, Tampa Bay, Nashville and Florida proved their ability to hang in with top teams. They have defended much better recently, and have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Sam Montembeault.
The Canucks are still the far superior team, but a -298 price tag is too wide. Anything better than +225 is play for me on the Canadiens in a game I expect to be far more evenly contested than oddsmakers are expecting.
Best Bet: Canadiens Moneyline (+240 at DraftKings) | Play to +225
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