Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyson Barrie
- In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day.
- On Monday, he looks at the Avalanche-Predators NHL game (3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and the head-to-head matchup between Nashville defenseman Roman Josi and Colorado defenseman Tyson Barrie.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-11-3, +14.23 Units
- Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-2-0, +3.30 Units
- NHL: 5-1-2, +4.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite NHL Matchup for Monday, Jan. 21: Roman Josi vs. Tyson Barrie, More Points
- Roman Josi: -165
- Tyson Barrie: +135
First of all, I wish you a Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day. May it be filled with happiness and kindness and peace.
Secondly, we’ve got a great day of sports lined up to mark the holiday. Let’s celebrate!
We’ve been so hot with our hockey picks this year that we’ve turned that ice straight into steam. That’s right, we’ve been sublime.
The first NHL contest of the day is the Avalanche-Predators game (3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+), and the head-to-head matchup between Nashville defenseman Roman Josi and Colorado defenseman Tyson Barrie looks exploitable.
Both Josi and Barrie skate on the first-team defense and power-play lines, but Barrie is probably the better value in this matchup.
Over the past year and even the past month, Josi has had the edge on Barrie in terms of opportunity (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models).
- Josi: 24.82 time on ice, 20.61 Corsi For (year) | 24.75 time on ice, 21.92 Corsi For (month)
- Barrie: 22.89 time on ice, 18.14 Corsi For (year) | 23.84 time on ice, 20.58 Corsi For (month)
But even with his opportunities, Josi has been unable to score more points per game than Barrie over any notable period of time.
- Career (Since 2011): Barrie – 0.63, Josi – 0.62
- Past Year: Barrie – 0.85, Josi – 0.68
- 2018-19 Season: Barrie – 0.84, Josi – 0.70
- Past Month: Barrie – 1.00, Josi – 0.64
On top of that, the Avs are at home, so they have the last-change advantage, and they are slight -115 favorites.
Barrie looks like the more productive player, and he’s at plus odds. I see too much value in Barrie not to invest in him.
I would bet on Barrie down to +105.
The Pick: Barrie (+135)