Oilers vs. Blackhawks Odds: How We’re Looking To Bet Game 4
Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Toews
- Michael Leboff previews Game 4 of the Edmonton Oilers vs. Chicago Blackhawks series.
- Find his analysis of the betting odds below, complete with how he's looking to bet the moneyline.
Oilers vs. Blackhawks Odds: Game 4
| Oilers Odds | -134 [BET NOW] |
| Blackhawks Odds | +115 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 6.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
The best-of-5 series between the Chicago Blackhawks and Edmonton Oilers is playing out as expected. The stars are leading the way. Both teams are scoring lots of goals. Defense has not been so great.
When this matchup was made official, it was expected to be a last-team-to-score-wins type of series. The first three games have done little to dispel that hypothesis.
The see-saw nature of Edmonton vs. Chicago immediately drew me to the underdog. It felt like a series that would feature high variance, and that type of chaos usually lends value to the underdog. This is especially true when that pooch has the better goalie — which Chicago does.
| Chicago Blackhawks | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 Goals For | 9 | 7 |
| 5-on-5 Expected Goals For | 4.07 | 5.57 |
| 5-on-5 Shot Attempts | 114 | 122 |
| 5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chances | 19 | 30 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
Stats cited from Natural Stat Trick.
Despite being outscored, 9-7, Edmonton has generally been the better 5-on-5 team through the first three games. The Oilers arguably deserve to be ahead in this series, especially after their performance in Game 3 on Wednesday night.
According to MoneyPuck's expected goals model, Edmonton won the xG battle 5.58 to 2.3 overall and 2.15 to 1.09 in 5-on-5. That's a game Edmonton should win, especially since the Oilers were up 2-1 with six minutes to go. But, their suspect defense is not trustworthy.
The Blackhawks hung above +125 for a while before Game 1 but eventually closed between +112 and +125 for the series opener. Since then, it's become clear how the betting market views this matchup.
| Chicago Blackhawks | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | +112 | -130 |
| Game 2 | +117 | -136 |
| Game 3 | +110 | -127 |
| Game 4 | +115 | -134 |
Odds via DraftKings.
The current odds look about right around the market, as no sportsbook lists Chicago above +115. At the current prices I'd lean towards Chicago, but I'm going to wait to see if a +120 pops on the Hawks. I doubt that it'll happen, but if a ton of Chicago money shows up in the market and pushes Edmonton to -120, I'd back the Oilers.
And if you're looking for a fun prop, I still like Kirby Dach's value at 24-1 (DraftKings) to be the first goal-scorer. Dach came tantalizingly close to cashing this prop in Game 3 and I'll keep backing him so long as he's slated to center Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
If you want an Oilers player to balance the sheet, I'd think about Kailer Yamamoto at 16-1 if plays with Leon Draisaitl.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
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