NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Avalanche vs. Jets (April 8)

Avalanche vs. Jets Odds

Friday night features a Central Division tilt as the first-place Colorado Avalanche travel to Winnipeg to take on the sixth-place Jets. This is the third meeting between these teams this season, the previous two of which Colorado won by three or more goals.

Will Colorado dominate Winnipeg once again? Or can the Jets pull off the upset at home against the Avs?

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Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche enter this contest on a four-win streak following Tuesday's 6-4 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

While Colorado enters this contest in good form and has dominated Winnipeg twice this season, there is reason to believe the Avs could fall short in this matchup. For starters, both of their wins over the Jets occurred on home ice, but now they must travel to Winnipeg in what feels like a must-win game for the Jets.

Colorado, while still an elite team, is not the same when playing on the road. Of the Avs' 20 losses this season, 13 have occurred on the road. Road games are even tougher against division opponents, which is evident in their 5-5 record on the road against the Central Division.

Colorado is due for some regression offensively as the Avs are averaging 3.83 goals scored per game over their last six contests despite ranking just 14th in the league in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF). Furthermore, the injuries to Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog could limit the scoring of the Avalanche against a red-hot Connor Hellebuyck.

Winnipeg Jets

I expect projected starting goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to keep it rolling despite facing a very capable Colorado offense.

Hellebuyck has allowed two or fewer goals in four of his last six starts, posting an exceptional 0.943 save percentage over that stretch. This season, Hellebuyck ranks 11th among starting goaltenders in five-on-five goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

As I mentioned above, this game feels like a must-win for Winnipeg, which is especially true following Wednesday's loss to Detroit.

The Jets currently sit seven points from the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference with just 11 games left on their schedule. While that is a tall task, it is doable, though the Jets will need to make a run and a good spot to start is on home ice against a division opponent.

Winnipeg is due for positive offensive regression as the Jets are averaging only 2.2 goals scored over their last five games. This positive regression could come on home ice, where they are 3-1 over their last four games when priced as underdogs.

Avalanche vs. Jets Pick

It is tough betting against a powerhouse like the Colorado Avalanche, but the value is on their opponent in this matchup. The Winnipeg Jets' backs are up against the wall and Hellebuyck has been seeing the puck terrifically in the crease.

Colorado is on the first half of a back-to-back with the first seed in the playoffs pretty much locked in, so we could see the Avs distribute the minutes across the lineup, which would obviously benefit the Jets.

Pick: Jets ML +160 | Bet to: +145