NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs Maple Leafs (Saturday, February 17)
Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Blues Odds | +164 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -200 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -104 / -118 |
Here's everything you need to know about the St. Louis Blues vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, February 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Leafs will look to respond to a painful 5-3 loss to the Senators on Saturday as they begin life without top defender Morgan Rielly.
The Blues, meanwhile, have won seven of their last eight games, but they are still priced as a heavy +170 underdog against a Toronto team that owns just a 12-10-2 record on home ice this season.
With seven wins in their last eight games, the Blues now own a 15-7-1 record under head coach Drew Bannister, who was hired on Dec. 13 to try to turn around the season.
Considering their much-improved record under Bannister and the fact that the Leafs will be without their top defender, the Blues' betting number will look surprising to some.
The team's recent underlying process has been less impressive than their overall results suggest, though. They have played to an xGF% of 46.61 in their last 10 games and allowed 3.40 xGA/60.
Based only upon shot location, all scoring chances are not equal, and most public expected-goal models don't factor in pre-shot puck movement when producing the % chance each shot will score. Therefore, we can see some inaccurate quantifying of some shots in terms of their true % chance to score.
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Historically, this Blues roster core has shot at a higher % than expected, and completing a lot of passes through the middle of the ice in the offensive zone has been part of the reason why. Maybe there are some arguments to suggest their recent offensive play is sustainable because of that. Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas do offer the kind of playmaking and shooting threats that numbers can miss.
Defensively, though, it is quite hard to see what the Blues are doing that has allowed such impressive numbers from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer in goal. Over the last 15 games, they have allowed the fifth-highest xGA/60 in the league at 3.62. Their goalies have put up a .919 save % in that span, though, despite the fact that their opponents' chance quality has looked legitimate.
Under regular circumstances, the Blues' defense core is still a weakness relative to the league average. The situation is worse for the time being as both Justin Faulk and Scott Perunovich are listed as week-to-week.
Jordan Binnington is probable to get this start, and he owns a +10.2 GSAx and .909 save % in 36 appearances this season. Confirmation on the Blues netminder does not hold much relevance handicapping-wise, though, as Joel Hofer has offered comparable splits.
While the official length of Morgan Rielly's suspension will be confirmed sometime Tuesday morning, the Leafs know full well that he will be sidelined for this contest, and they practiced with adjusted defensive pairings as a result.
Rielly has put up 43 points in 50 games this season, and he offered the most well-rounded play of any Leafs defender while leading the team with an average of 24:21 TOI.
Timothy Liljegren moved up to the top pair with T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe filled in to Rielly's spot on the top power-play unit at Monday's practice.
In 16 games since the new year, the Leafs have been generating offensive chances at the lofty rate we have come to expect. They own a third-best xGF/60 of 3.68, and they rank second with 35.04 shots on goal per 60. They have put up only 3.25 goals per game where it counts in that span, but in time we should see improvement towards a 9.3% shooting percentage.
As the games get more significant, coach Sheldon Keefe will likely continue to be forced into playing his superstar forwards more minutes than desired in close contests – particularly if Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones do not play at an overly high level. And also if the team continues to receive next to nothing in the way of meaningful depth scoring.
Ilya Samsonov is projected to start on Tuesday. He has played to a -11.4 GSAx and .879 save % in 21 appearances this season.
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Blues vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Blues are not necessarily playing like a team that has won seven of eight, and they appear to be a clear candidate to negatively regress moving forward based on most indicators. It's possible their offensive play may be slightly underrated by some public expected-goal models because of how well they complete seam passes in the offensive zone, but I can not pinpoint any reason that their defensive play is better than recent goals-against totals suggest.
The Blues have allowed among the most chances in the league of late, and if their team save % dips, it is going to lead to a lot of goals against.
The Leafs are not without some flaws themselves but still have to be viewed as one of the best offensive teams in the league. The talent on the roster dictates as much, and the underlying numbers agree. They are a good candidate to expose the Blues' defensive flaws, and bets involving a strong Leafs output are my favorite ways to play this game.
At the time of writing BetRivers is offering the Leafs to score over 3.5 goals in this game at -108, which is my favorite look from this game, and anything better than -125 is a play for me.
This matchup sets up well for the Leafs' top stars to shine in particular, and I think we see them end up with big minutes in a fairly close, high-event game. William Nylander is priced at +120 to score, and I like that given the Blues' inability to defend off of the rush and the way that he has responded after poorer showings this season.
Picks: Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 -120 (Betrivers, Play to -125) | William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer +130 (FanDuel, Play to +115)
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