NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs Oilers
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers
Blues vs. Oilers Odds
| Blues Odds | +220 |
| Oilers Odds | -275 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday, February 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Blues dropped their fifth game in seven contests last night in Winnipeg, and they will look to respond in a tough back-to-back spot versus the Oilers. They now sit six points back of the Predators with two games in hand in the wild-card race.
After an undefeated month of January, the Oilers have also cooled off recently with a 5-5-1 record in January. They were dominated in a 6-3 loss in St. Louis on Feb. 15, and they will look to avenge that defeat Wednesday as heavy favorites.
This is my Blues vs. Oilers pick and prediction.
From Jan. 20 to their last meeting with the Oilers on the 15th, the Blues won eight of 10 games in highly unconvincing fashion. They looked to be about as pure a regression candidate as the NHL can offer.
Since that point, they have hit a wall with losses in five of six games while being outscored 19-11. They have allowed 35.24 shots against per 60 in those six games, which has led to a GAA of 3.80. Their xGA/60 of 3.76 this month is the third-worst mark in the league.
They did get Justin Faulk back in the lineup last night versus Winnipeg, and they will hope his presence can help stabilize a back end that has been a clear concern of late.
An area of strength that could help make this game competitive is the Blues' power play. Since coach Drew Bannister took over, it ranks as a top-five unit. That's not overly surprising as Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich all have tremendous skill sets to work with the extra man.
If the Blues make this a game, look for that trio to break through on the man advantage in some fashion.
Because Joel Hofer started last night in Winnipeg, we should expect Jordan Binnington to get the start tonight. Binnington has played to a +10.6 GSAx and .909 save % in 41 appearances this season.
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The Oilers have exhibited a few more flaws of late. Their defensive play has trended back to earth while Stuart Skinner has looked a little less sharp in goal.
Both of those concerns were obvious in a humiliating 6-3 loss in the Battle of Alberta on Saturday, but the group responded well on Monday with a quality win over the Kings.
No matter what the Oilers do ahead of the deadline, they will be in the true cup contender conversation. The greatest strengths of this team will always be the elite talents at the top of the lineup, and as long as they are healthy, Edmonton is in the mix. They have also received more notable contributions from down the lineup than any other season of the McDavid era.
The debate about how the Oilers should attack the deadline rages on: Do they add a 1B goalie to help support Stuart Skinner? What about Jake Guentzel?
For me, the most important need that could come at a more reasonable cost is an upgrade for Cody Ceci on the back end. Looking from a pure replacement level, his current role in the top four is the Oilers' biggest roster concern, and there are clear rental upgrades on the market.
Amid a tougher schedule in February, the Oilers have played to an xGA/60 of 3.43, which is the 11th-worst mark in the league. A Chris Tanev type to help fill in for Ceci would be a huge get.
Another goalie to support Skinner would be nice, but it's not a realistic luxury given the current cap situation.
Skinner has earned the right to be the starter in Game 1, and he will be the starter for Edmonton tonight.
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Blues vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The public has a very clear side in this game – the Oilers – and backing Connor McDavid to snap his 10-game goalless drought is the most popular prop. Sometimes it's hip to be square, and I like both of those looks, particularly McDavid to score.
The Blues are a well-below-average side defensively, and we should see the Oilers expose their current flaws in this spot. The Blues have the high-end talents to succeed against the run of play, though, and they should continue to have a better-than-league-average power play moving forward.
It's not just a reach on the "due" narrative to say McDavid will score a single goal in this matchup more than 49% of the time to justify the current +105 odds. I also think backing him to score two goals at +650 odds, and to score last at +700, are worthy bets.
There is a good chance the Oilers will be leading by one goal – or even better, two goals – late in this matchup. In that instance, we would see his teammates looking to allow him the empty-net goal when possible.
Pick: Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+105 at BetMGM) | Play to -115
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