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Blues vs Stars | NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction

Blues vs Stars | NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger.

  • The Dallas Stars cap their regular season by hosting the St. Louis Blues on Thursday night.
  • The Blues have not beaten the Stars this season, and NHL expert Tony Sartori doesn’t expect that to change.
  • Continue reading for his Blues vs. Stars preview and betting pick on the puck line.

Blues vs. Stars Odds

Blues Odds+220
Stars Odds-275
Over/Under6.5 (+100/-122)
Time8 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Thursday night marks Game 82 for each of these Central Division teams, with the playoff-bound Dallas Stars hosting the golf-course-bound St. Louis Blues.

Searching for the season sweep of St. Louis, the Stars won last night’s tilt 5-2 and the first matchup 4-1 earlier in the season. Will Dallas take care of business on back-to-back nights against the Blues, or can St. Louis end its season on a high note?

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Blues vs. Stars betting pick.

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St. Louis Blues

After punting on the season at the trade deadline, when they shipped out both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly, the Blues are set to finish sixth in the Central Division. In their final game of the season, the Blues are going with goaltender Jordan Binnington between the pipes.

It has been a particularly difficult campaign for Binnington, who is 27-26-6 with a .892 save percentage (SV%) and 3.35 goals against average (GAA) through 60 appearances. Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely in this final outing.

Among starting goaltenders, Binnington ranks 20th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. While St. Louis’ netminder certainly deserves his portion of the blame for how this season has gone, the team in front of him played just as poorly.

At 5-on-5, the Blues rank just 26th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 24th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).


Dallas Stars

Entering this contest in excellent form, the Stars have won five straight and seven of their last eight. Peaking at the right time, Dallas is likely to continue this good stretch of hockey against the lowly Blues.

Guarding the cage for the Stars in this matchup is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has put together yet another tremendous season. Through 61 appearances, Oettinger is 36-11-11 with a .918 SV% and 2.41 GAA.

Dallas’ netminder enters this game in particularly dominant form. Over his past seven starts, he is 6-1 with a stellar .934 SV% and 1.65 GAA.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for the young goaltender. Among starters, Oettinger ranks 12th in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Not only do the Stars possess the advantage in net, but they are also the far superior team both offensively and defensively.

At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks 16th in xGF/60 and sixth in xGA/60.


Blues vs. Stars Pick

Oettinger’s tremendous play in net is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team he typically dominates. Across two career starts against the Blues, Oettinger boasts a .923 SV% and 2.53 GAA.

Instead of laying over two-dollars on the moneyline, we are going to back Dallas to cover the puck line at +111. Not only have the Stars won and covered both meetings against the Blues this season, but St. Louis is fade-worthy against the puck line.

Of the Blues’ last 23 losses, 18 have come by at least a two-goal margin.

Pick: Stars -1.5 (+111 | Play to +100)

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