Bruins vs Hurricanes Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
Photo by Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Svechnikov.
- Hockey betting expert Nick Martin looks over the Bruins vs. Hurricanes odds, then makes a NHL best bet.
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Bruins Odds | +130 |
| Hurricanes Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday, April 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Bruins wrap up a season-high, six-game road trip on Thursday with a date against the consensus Stanley Cup favorites, the Hurricanes, who own a mark of 25-9-4 on home ice this season. Boston is 3-2-0 on its road trip, which has been enough to open a four-game lead over the ice-cold Panthers in the Atlantic Division.
Bruins vs Hurricanes odds have the Hurricanes listed as -155 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 5.5 Find my Bruins vs Hurricanes prediction below.
The Bruins' play throughout this road trip has not provided much clarity about whether they are a true cup contender.
At their best, they can win any matchup behind strong defensive play and elite goaltending. That was how Boston bested the Predators on Tuesday night, and it will need to lean on those strengths on Thursday in a matchup versus a far deeper Hurricanes team.
Since the start of March, the Bruins own an xGF% of only 49.95 — but they have played to a 9-5-1 record in those matchups. At some point, it does need to be respected that Boston is far better than average at winning evenly contested matchups, especially once you consider last year's historic regular season.
On paper, the Bruins' offensive core is much more modest than the other contenders. That perceived weakness has played out on the ice recently, as they rank 20th in xGF/60 since the start of March.
Jeremy Swayman is expected to start in goal for the Bruins, though the ultimate decision between he and Linus Ullmark holds little weight from a handicapping perspective as both have been equally superb this season. Swayman has played to a +14.1 GSAx and .916 save % across 41 appearances.
Part of the reason why the Hurricanes are priced as outright favorites is their potential first-round matchup. They will likely finish second in the Metropolitan division and be massive favorites over the third seed. For that reason, it is fair to say their remaining games hold little value in terms of playoff positioning.
However, it's not in head coach Rod Brind'Amour's DNA to allow his team to coast into the postseason, and the Bruins offer a formidable challenge to a team looking to head into the playoffs in top form.
Since the trade deadline, the Hurricanes have put up a record of 11-2-1. They have played to a 54.08% expected goal share and a +27 goal differential.
Their defensive play has remained excellent, which is no surprise as that has been the case throughout the entire Brind'Amour era. Their defensive upside was masked early on this season by below-average goaltending, but over their last 14 games, they have a .931 save % and have allowed only 1.85 goals against per game.
The addition of Jake Guentzel has provided a legitimate boost to the Hurricanes offense, as has rostering a healthy Andrei Svechnikov. Since the deadline, the Hurricanes have averaged 3.85 goals for per game.
Guentzel, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis have provided a truly dominant top line. They have played to 63.6% expected goal share in 111.4 minutes, but have played to a significantly higher actual goal share than that.
Frederik Andersen is likely viewed as the Game 1 starter for the time being being, and that makes me believe he would get the start in this spot. He has played to a +11.8 GSAx and .930 save % in 13 appearances this season.
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Bruins vs. Hurricanes
Betting Pick & Prediction
A game against a healthy and rested Hurricanes team in Raleigh is arguably the toughest matchup in the NHL right now. If Carolina continues to get steady goaltending, there are no flaws on its roster — and the top line looks more in line with other contending sides given the way Guentzel has fit in.
Regular followers of my work have likely noticed that I have not soured on the Bruins as much as others in the handicapping community. Their defensive upside is greater than their recent analytical profile suggests, and they are excellent at finding ways to win close matchups.
Those strengths shouldn't mean the 'Canes' are as short as -152 in this matchup though. Any price better than -165 is worthy of a bet on the Hurricanes.
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