NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 4 (Saturday, April 27)
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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Bruins Odds | +108 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -134o / +110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 4 on Saturday, April 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
We’ve had ourselves a heated battle between two Original Six teams in the Bruins and Maple Leafs.
Boston came out on top in Game 3 by a score of 4-2 to take a 2-1 series lead, and now we approach a pivotal game. What's of note is that we will see the return of 40-goal scorer William Nylander, who missed the first three games of the series because of an upper-body injury.
Can the Bruins distance themselves? Or will the Maple Leafs tie it up to make things interesting? Let’s dive into our Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 4 preview and pick.
Captain Brad Marchand always shows up for the playoffs, and this year is no exception. He and Jake DeBrusk lead the team in scoring with six and five points, respectively, and David Pastrnak is always a threat to light the lamp with 47 markers this season. Along with them, defenseman Charlie McAvoy is not just a force on the blue line, but can chip in on the scoresheet, averaging a point per game.
Boston and Toronto have each played similar 5-on-5 games this series. Of the 16 teams in these playoffs, the Bruins are ninth in expected goals with a 49.05 xGF% and the defense hasn’t shown up well with a 3.77 xGA/60.
This Bruins' power play is humming like no other, scoring five times out of 10 opportunities. Not only that, but the penalty kill is also stifling, stopping 10 out of 11 tries.
The million-dollar question: Who does coach Jim Montgomery roll with in goal tonight? Jeremy Swayman is the hot hand and even expressed interest in playing, but Montgomery seems to think alternating with Linus Ullmark is the recipe for success. Ullmark is no slouch, stopping 31 out of 34 shots in Game 2, but I feel more confident with Swayman.
Auston Matthews continues to be one of the league’s dynamic players, with three points in three playoff games. What’s interesting is that he shares the team lead in points with grinder Max Domi.
Nylander's return will be important though. Toronto will need him since Mitch Marner has not had himself a productive playoffs.
Usually a dominant 5-on-5 team, the Maple Leafs have been underwhelming in the playoffs with a 50.95 xGF%. Not only that, but they’re 12th defensively with a 3.63 xGA/60.
As mentioned, the Bruins have done a wonderful job at stopping the power play. The absence of Nylander may be the reason for that, as Toronto scored 24% of the time during the season. Similarly, the penalty kill has been awful so far, but it was never a dominant group.
Ilya Samsonov's game is totally bipolar. One night he can be lights out, and another night he lets in clunkers — not exactly Mr. Reliable. His .895 SV% and -0.2 GSAx in these playoffs align with his regular season contributions as well.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is probably the most even series in the playoffs, which means I see the Maple Leafs coming out on top on Saturday.
With the return of Nylander, I see a lot opening up for the Maple Leafs. His line with Tyler Bertuzzi and captain John Tavares was one of the more efficient lines in the NHL this season.
Toronto hasn’t exactly been a dominant team on its home ice, but I can see the tides turning. If Samsonov can play a solid game, I see no reason why the Leafs can’t come out on top.
They’re the slight favorites for a reason, and I’m backing Toronto to make things interesting in this series.
Pick: Maple Leafs ML (-120)
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