NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Maple Leafs

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Maple Leafs article feature image

(Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images). Pictured: Auston Matthews.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Monday, March 4
7 p.m. ET
Bruins Odds+110
Maple Leafs Odds-130
Over / Under
-108/ -112
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday, March 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

It's always an occasion when the Bruins and the Maple Leafs square off, thanks to plenty of history between these two Atlantic Division rivals. Boston currently holds a six-point edge over Toronto in the standings but the gap between the two teams is smaller than it initially appears. The Leafs hold two games in hand and are on a tear, with wins in nine of their last 10 games.

Both teams are finding the net with regularity, so Monday's matchup should be an entertaining, high-event affair. The outcome should also come down to the wire, creating a tempting opportunity for savvy bettors.

Boston Bruins

Like several other top teams, the Bruins have been in a bit of a funk since the All-Star break. They're 4-4-5, went through a strange six-game stretch in which every contest went to overtime or a shootout and will be playing in their seventh different rink in their last seven games when the puck drops at Scotiabank Arena on Monday.

The airtight goaltending that was serving them so well earlier in the season has also been shaky. Boston has given up three goals or more in each of its last nine games dating back to Feb. 15, while generally continuing to alternate between Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark.

Considering the Bruins' lofty perch in the standings, they've been barely average in terms of their 5-on-5 puck possession, controlling 49.88% of expected goals. They've actually been a little better than usual over the last 10 games at 50.41%. Boston's top-10 special teams have continued to get the job done during this rough patch, and the team has generated enough scoring to keep most games close.

Toronto Maple Leafs

At the other end of the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs are on a nice little roll. They're 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and coming off a 4-3 shootout win over the New York Rangers in a playoff-style matchup Saturday.

During this winning streak, the Maple Leafs have been playing with solid structure, controlling 54.33% of expected goals. And while their goaltending situation has been stabilized thanks to improved play by Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll's return from injury, their success has largely been driven by offense, headlined by a league-leading 4.7 goals per game and 38.5% success rate on the power play since the hot stretch began Feb. 13. Toronto has been led by 18 points from William Nylander, 17 from Mitch Marner and 16 from Auston Matthews, including 11 goals from the latter in those 10 games.

Sitting third in the Atlantic Division, the Leafs have now widened the gap over the teams that have been chasing them. The focus now is to fine-tune their game and make sure they're ready for what they hope is a long run starting in April.

Heading into the trade deadline, the blue line is an area of concern. Conor Timmins is out indefinitely with mono, Mark Giordano suffered a concussion on Thursday against Arizona and new acquisition Ilya Lyubushkin left Saturday's game with a head injury after a hard hit from Matt Rempe late in the second period. His status for Monday has not yet been announced.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs

Betting Pick & Prediction

Given how these two teams have been trending, it's not surprising to see the Leafs open at -134 on the moneyline, making their implied odds of winning just north of 57%.

There isn't much value in backing the home side, but with plenty of goals from both sides in recent weeks, a plus-money bet for the total to go over 6.5 looks pretty good.

Even better: Both previous contests between these two teams this season have gone past 60 minutes, with the Bruins prevailing both times. Toronto holds the upper hand this time around, but this is a great opportunity to think about backing a regulation tie at a juicy +370 potential payout.

Pick: 60-minute moneyline tie (+370 at FanDuel | Play down to +320)

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