NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Penguins (Saturday, April 13)
Bruins vs. Penguins Odds
| Bruins Odds | -130 |
| Penguins Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, April 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
When the Penguins traded top-line forward Jake Guentzel on March 7, it was because their chances of making the playoffs seemed close to nil, but against all odds, Pittsburgh now has a loose hold on the second wild card seed.
This game is vital for Pittsburgh, but it holds value for Boston as well, so let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Bruins vs. Penguins prediction.
Boston has already punched its playoff ticket, but its battle for playoff positioning is far from over. The Bruins are a point ahead of Florida in the fight for the Atlantic Division title and Boston is three points behind the Rangers in the Presidents' Trophy race. In both cases, Boston has a game in hand on its competition.
It's been a defiant season for the Bruins, who were expected to run into problems in their first campaign without the retired duo of centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. While their presence would doubtlessly have been of value, the loss has been mitigated thanks to Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha serving admirably as Boston's top-two centers throughout the campaign.
In fact, Coyle and Zacha's combined offensive totals of 44 goals and 114 points this season are essentially identical to Bergeron and Krejci's combined production in 2022-23 (43 goals, 114 points). Combine that with the continued success of David Pastrnak (47 goals, 107 points) and Brad Marchand (28 goals, 66 points), and Boston ranks a respectable 11th in scoring with 3.24 goals per game.
That alone would make them competitive, but the Bruins' strength doesn't come from their offense. Instead, goaltenders Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman are at the heart of the team's success and have helped the Bruins limit their adversaries to 2.68 goals allowed per contest, which ranks fifth in the league.
Ullmark, who is likely to face the Penguins based on Boston's goaltending rotation, has a 21-9-7 record, 2.55 GAA and .916 save percentage across 38 appearances. He's done particularly well lately, stopping 87 of 91 shots (.956 save percentage) over his past three games against serious competition in Florida, Nashville and Tampa Bay.
The netminder also turned aside 38 of 39 shots en route to a 5-1 victory when he faced the Penguins on March 9, so he'll be trying to repeat that success tonight.
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If anyone is going to solve Ullmark, it's Sidney Crosby. The Penguins star forward has an unreal 23 points (nine goals) over his past 13 games. Already a three-time Stanley Cup winner, the 36-year-old has nothing left to prove, but clearly, he's still hungry for playoff hockey.
He's been driving the Penguins' pushback into relevance, but it would be an oversimplification to suggest he's been doing it alone. Bryan Rust has been clicking too with six goals and 13 points over his last 10 appearances while Michael Bunting, who was sent to the Penguins as part of the Guentzel trade, has two goals and seven points in his past five outings. As a team, Pittsburgh is averaging 4.20 goals per contest over its last 10 games, which has resulted in the squad going on a 7-0-3 run.
In net, Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on Alex Nedeljkovic. The 28-year-old has a 2.63 GAA and a .911 save percentage over his last nine outings, but there have been some warning signs recently with him allowing 12 goals on 87 shots (.862 save percentage) in his past three contests. Nedeljkovic has also looked bad against Boston this campaign, stopping just 42 of 52 shots (.808 save percentage) in two contests versus the Bruins.
Given those shortcomings, there's an outside chance Tristan Jarry gets the nod Saturday, but with so much on the line and the Penguins clicking overall, Pittsburgh will probably be reluctant to mix things up now, which will likely result in Nedeljkovic remaining in goal. Besides, Jarry has a 19-24-5 record, 2.90 GAA and .903 save percentage in 50 outings in 2023-24, so it's not as if switching to him would be a safe bet.
Bruins vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a challenging one to predict. Oddsmakers have the Bruins as the favorites and indeed they are the better team on paper. Even this contest being played in Pittsburgh likely wouldn't be enough to sway me under normal circumstances given Boston's solid road record (22-8-9).
When we're this close to the playoffs, though, it's not just about the numbers, it's also a question of who wants it more. Boston could use this win, but Pittsburgh needs it, and Crosby has shown how strong he can perform in the clutch.
I'm going to throw caution to the wind and recommend the Penguins on the moneyline based on the strength of their recent play. However, if you don't feel comfortable with that, you could also consider the over of 5.5 goals.
Between Pittsburgh's red-hot offense, Boston's solid forward corps and Nedeljkovic's somewhat shaky recent play, this should be a fairly high-scoring game.
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