Canadiens vs Flames Odds & Prediction | NHL Preview (March 16)
Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joshua Roy.
- The Montreal Canadiens (25-30) and Calgary Flames (32-29) meet on Saturday at Scotiabank Saddledome.
- The Flames are -165 favorites on the moneyline with a game total over/under of 6.
- NHL expert Nick Martin makes the case for the underdog Canadiens.
Canadiens vs Flames Odds
| Canadiens Odds | +140 |
| Flames Odds | -165 |
| Over / Under | 6 -125o / +105u |
Here's everything you need to know about Canadiens vs Flames on Saturday, March 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Montreal will begin its five-game road trip with a date in Calgary on Saturday night. Despite a 3-4-3 record in their past 10 games, it's clear the Canadiens are playing out the stretch in a professional manner.
The Flames are also just playing out the season after making a trio of high-profile moves at the deadline. They responded well Thursday to an ugly three-game losing streak, but could potentially be overvalued Saturday.
See how I think this one will play out in my Canadiens vs Flames preview, which includes a Canadiens vs Flames prediction.
This matchup will be nationally broadcast on Hockey Night in Canada. That will offer coach Martin St. Louis some good avenues to keep his side engaged as they skate out another lost season.
The Canadiens suffered a tough overtime loss Thursday versus Boston, but certainly competed to their underdog price tag in that matchup. The same could be said regarding their 3-2 loss to Toronto last Saturday, though they were able to collect a solid 3-0 win over Columbus on Tuesday. Their only multi-goal loss this month came against the red-hot Hurricanes, and the Canadiens still made that game more competitive than the final score suggested.
Over the past 15 games, the Canadiens have played to an xGF% of 48.27, which is nearly identical to that of the Flames over the same sample.
Alex Newhook has found chemistry alongside Joshua Roy since returning to the lineup, which has provided the Canadiens a more competent second line.
Samuel Montembeault will likely get the start Saturday. He has 2.3 GSAx and a .905 save percentage across 32 appearances this season.
On January 29th, the Flames traded star forward Elias Lindholm to the Canucks. At that point, everybody was writing them off entirely, but they responded with a surprisingly strong run of play out of the All-Star break.
Prior to the deadline they shipped off two more key pieces in top-four defenders Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. They haven't been able to cover those absences as effectively as they did Lindholm's and aside from Thursday's game against Vegas, their play has tailed off significantly.
Lindholm was underperforming, so it really wasn't surprising to see other forwards being able to match his effectiveness, despite his name power.
However, it's unlikely we see the holes left by Hanifin and Tanev being filled as smoothly.
Daniil Miromanov is looking like an intriguing acquistion, but he still isn't likely to be an effective top pairing defender at this point, which is where he's currently being used. Oliver Kylington returning to the lineup is also a positive for the Flames.
Connor Zary is on Injured Reserve and his role will likely continue to be filled by Matthew Coronato, who played well Thursday night.
It's unclear whether Jacob Markstrom will return to the lineup after missing Thursday's matchup. His status holds lots of handicapping relevancy, so look out for further word. It does seem doubtful that he'll play, which would likely mean a second straight start for Dustin Wolf.
Wolf has played to a -8.2 GSAx and a .892 save percentage in eight games.
Canadiens vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Flames no longer possess a blue-line that is far superior to that of the Canadiens. As a result, these rosters are closer than they have been over the past several seasons.
The Canadiens have lost a number of nail-biters against high quality teams this month, but their process has been considerably improved. Their improved play would likely be slightly more credited were they to have won some of those close matchups.
The Flames still deserve to be a home favorite, but I believe these teams are closer than these odds indicate. I'll bet we see Montreal make this into a scrappy, coin-flip type contest, and believe there is value in backing the road underdogs at anything better than +140. If it is Wolf/Vladar instead of Markstrom, I would play this down to +135.
Pick: Montreal Canadiens Moneyline +150 (FanDuel) | Play to +140
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