NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canadiens vs Kraken (Sunday, March 24)
Via David Kirouac/Getty Images. Pictured: Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (22) celebrates his goal with his teammates at the bench during the New York Islanders versus the Montreal Canadiens game on December 16, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.
Canadiens vs. Kraken Odds
| Canadiens Odds | +135 |
| Kraken Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115/ -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Montreal Canadiens vs. Seattle Kraken on Sunday, March 24 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Kraken's seven-game losing skid has emphatically ended any hopes of a playoff berth. They have scored just 1.85 goals per game over that span and will look to find it offensively Sunday against a Canadiens team which ranks 27th in goals against per game.
The Canadiens have struggled to a 2-4-4 record of their own over the last 10 and have started their Western Conference road swing with three straight losses.
Find my Canadiens vs. Kraken prediction and NHL betting preview below.
The Canadiens had their worst leg of this road swing on Thursday in Vancouver, as they suffered a 4-1 loss while generating just 18 shots on target.
Head coach Martin St. Louis has done an excellent job maximizing the level of his young roster. He is currently away from the team for personal reasons and will remain absent for this matchup. The final box scores of the losses in his absence might suggest his team hasn't found the same urgency with him out of the picture, but I actually disagree with that idea.
The Canadiens played well versus the Oilers and were particularly strong as the game wore on. An overtime loss versus the Oilers should be viewed as an ideal result for a lottery-bound side, but they actually played well enough to deserve better. They were also notably unlucky in a 5-2 loss in Calgary. At 5-on-5, they controlled 61.9% of the High Danger Chances, and the eye-test would tell you a final scoreline of 5-2 was an outlier given the actual gameplay.
By no means is Montreal a strong defensive side — don't get me wrong. They are playing more like a bottom-third defense of late, compared to one which was allowing among the most chances in the league for most of the season. Over the last month, their 2.82 xGA/60 at even strength ranks 23rd in the league.
The Canadiens have not announced a starting goaltender for this game. Based on the way they have been rotating of late, it will likely be Cayden Primeau. He has played to a +0.1 GSAx and .905 save % across 16 appearances.
The way this season has gone in Seattle feels like an interesting reminder of how marginal the gap between success and failure can be in the NHL.
Many analysts, myself included, thought the Kraken would be sneaky competitive in their inaugural season. That take ended up being way off but likely wasn't as bad as it seemed. They were one of the league's most unlucky sides and seemingly couldn't buy a break night after night. Last season vindicated that idea, as the Kraken shot the lights out on route to a surprising playoff berth and ultimately shocked the Colorado Avalanche.
This season feels much like the Kraken's first campaign, especially down the stretch run where they have really fallen off. They have lost a ton of games where they looked the better side at even strength (like both games versus Vegas in the current losing streak) but were unable to pay off any of their quality chances in the big moments.
Their scoring prowess has taken a notable hit since last season. Letting Daniel Sprong and Ryan Donato walk away looks pretty disastrous given the way their depth scoring has fallen off. Matty Beniers has taken a significant step backward, though his underlying process remains pretty solid. Alex Wennberg was traded at this year's deadline, which takes a quality playmaker out of the lineup.
The most notable factor in their recent struggles is the loss of top defender Vince Dunn. It is fair to say that Dunn is their best skater at both ends of the rink, and his absence has left a massive hole on the top unit and top power play. He continues to sound close to returning, and perhaps he would have already returned if the games still mattered, but he is considered unlikely to play Sunday.
Joey Daccord is expected to start in goal on Sunday. He has played to a +5.6 GSAx and .917 save % across 44 appearances this season.
Canadiens vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Canadiens have played an improved defensive game for what has become a relatively meaningful sample. Primeau is still a better than average goaltending option, and I believe they will finish off this road trip with an honest effort at both ends of the ice.
The Kraken continue to show as one of the league's better defensive sides, and they even own the eighth-best Goals Against Average this season. They should keep a stale Canadiens offense under wraps. Still, Seattle has been the league's fourth-worst side offensively, and there is not much reason that will change 69 games into the season.
Given the Kraken's lack of offensive upside, the prices on this game look too long to me. Betting the Canadiens to win at +136 on FanDuel provides enough value for a half-unit play. Backing the first period to go Under 1.5 Goals at +105 at bet365 is also worthy of a bet.
Pick: Canadiens Moneyline +138 (FanDuel, Play to +135) | First Period Under 1.5 +105 (bet365, Play to +100)
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