Canucks vs Predators Odds: Game 3 Preview, Prediction

Friday, April 26

7:30 p.m. ET

TBS

Canucks Odds	-104
Predators Odds	-115
Over / Under	5.5 -120 / +102

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Canucks vs Predators Game 3 on Friday, April 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

The advantage the Canucks earned for their spectacular regular season is now gone,  as the Predators claimed a split in Vancouver with their 4-1 victory in Game 2 and have now claimed home ice advantage themselves.

The Canucks closed at -155 favorites in Game 1, and due to an injury to superstar goaltender Thatcher Demko, closed as only -125 favorites in Game 2. Now as the series heads to Bridgestone Arena, the game is priced as a pick-em at most sportsbooks.

The main variable toward handicapping this matchup, and the rest of the series, comes down to how you weigh Casey DeSmith's level compared to that of Thatcher Demko. Demko was one of the very best goaltenders in the league this season, and looked sharp in the Canucks' Game 1 victory.

DeSmith's level might be being a little underrated by some observers right now, as he's worn the vast majority of the blame for the Canucks loss in Game 2 for stopping just 12-of-15 shots faced. If you watch the goals against one-by-one though, they are all pretty reasonable. He maybe could've controlled the rebound on Jason Zucker's shot slightly better on the second goal, though from that location controlling rebounds is not entirely expected.

The Canucks allowed 10 high danger chances against in Game 2 per NST, and 2.56 xGF. They generated 3.36 xGF/60 at the other end of the ice.

So while none of the goals were notably awful against DeSmith, it's easy to see the frustration when three goals get in from so few chances.

DeSmith was likely a little better than most people realized this season too. He played to a -0.4 GSAx across 29 appearances of work, with an .895 save percentage. He was left in goal to soak eight goals against in Minnesota on February 19 though, which makes the totality of his work look worse than it is.

Generating offense against elite teams was a problem for Vancouver down the stretch, and has been a problem in this series with only four non-empty net goals in the opening two games.

Superstar forward Elias Pettersson has been held pointless in the series, and is going to need to find some production if the Canucks are going to get past a scrappy Preds' team in the series. The Canucks powerplay is also yet to break through with a goal, in part due to the struggles of Pettersson.

The Predators will be thrilled to return home with a series split, and will hope to own more of the play playing at home in front of one of the league's liveliest crowds. They went 23-16-2 at Bridgestone Arena this season. In general, home-ice advantage is overpriced in NHL playoff betting markets though, which is an important note when you are pricing out games.

Road teams went 42-36 last season, and are above .500 dating back to 2017 if you exclude the COVID bubble series. After a dreadful start this year, road teams are up to 7-9. Keep in mind that is with the higher seeds having not played as many road games at this point, too.

The main reason home ice become less effective is both teams get onto matching travel schedules, where in the regular season horrid situations arise where teams get in at 2:00 am or later the night before a game. With the Predators now priced at -110 for this matchup, it looks like there is roughly 20 cents of movement based upon the game swinging to Nashville.

One advantage of home ice is last change though, which will hopefully allow Andrew Brunette's side to more effectively defend J.T. Miller's line. The Canucks' top line owned 91.3% of the expected goal share at 5-on-5 in Games 1 and 2.

Juuse Saros will start in goal for the Predators. He has played to a +1.9 GSAx and .894 save percentage to start the series.

The Canucks were the better team overall in Games 1 and 2 in Vancouver, and should be able to drive more of the play in this matchup once again. They have generated enough chances to say that they could have scored more chances in the series, and a similar looking game tonight would likely mean a higher team total for the Canucks.

Vancouver now holds a starting goaltender disadvantage though, and it's unlikely it is able to suppress chances as effectively as the series heads to Nashville.

For those reasons I do not quite see value to back either side, but I lean toward the Canucks.

J.T. Miller has been very engaged in the opening two matchups of this series, and the Canucks have owned the vast majority of the chances when he was on the ice. He put up 18 shot attempts in the first two games of the series, with 12 of those listed as unblocked attempts. He should continue to get his looks in this series, and -120 is a good number to bet him to record over 2.5 shots on goal.

Pick: J.T. Miller Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -120 (DraftKings, Play to -120)

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