Wednesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview

Capitals vs. Golden Knights Odds

The Knights will host the Capitals for a near do-or-die contest after Vegas suffered a very disappointing 3-2 loss to the Devils on Monday.

They will have no easy task, however, as the Capitals have been playing far better hockey down the stretch, which was displayed in a sound 3-2 win in Colorado earlier this week.

Can the Knights bounce back with a huge win in this 2018 Stanley Cup Finals rematch?

Capitals Return to T-Mobile Arena

T-Mobile Arena will always have a special place in the heart of Caps fans, as Washington finished off its 2018 championship run with a 4-3 Game 5 win in Vegas.

The Caps may not be very likely to return to the Cup final this season, but its recent play may be showing it has more of a shot than many believe.

The Capitals have regularly been pegged as the Eastern Conference's lone playoff team with zero chance of hoisting the cup, but a stretch of six regulation wins in seven games has that take looking pretty questionable.

Over that span, the Caps have beaten Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Boston and Colorado all inside of regulation while playing to a 57.82 xGF%.

The Capitals have generated offense at an elite rate over this seven-game tear, with a 4.06 xGF/60 rate. They've still allowed a middling number of chances against with a 2.96 GA/60 rate and are getting the better of a high-event style of hockey.

Part of the uptick has been the fact that Washington has played closer to full health, and Wednesday should also see a lineup with few injuries.

It's unclear whether the Caps will start Vitek Vanecek or Ilya Samsonov in goal here, but based on the way we've seen games split, I would expect Vanecek.

Vanecek has played to a -3.3 goals saved above expected rating with a .909 save percentage, while Samsonov holds a -8.5 GSAx with an .898 save percentage.

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Can Vegas Find More Offense?

Vegas' letdown performance against New Jersey could in all likelihood prove too much for it to overcome as it hopes to avoid missing the postseason for the first time in franchise history.

The Knights did generate yet another high expected goals score of 4.31, and we have consistently seen this group able to create a lot of chances now playing at closer to full health.

Robin Lehner was fooled on a very abnormal-looking third goal from Jesper Boqvist, which held up as the game-winner. He also misplayed a rebound on the Devils' second goal, and in turn, I expect the Knights to look back to Logan Thompson here.

Thompson has been effective throughout his first 14 NHL games, with a 3.9 GSAx rating and a .922 save percentage throughout 22 games.

Consistent with much of Vegas' entire history, we have seen it continue to play an uptempo style of hockey led by an aggressive five-man attack. It sits right with the Caps in the top quarter of the league in xGF/60 in the month of April.

Capitals vs. Golden Knights Pick

Even if this is going to play out with playoff-style intensity and attention to detail, an opening total of six still seems like a massive over-adjustment from oddsmakers after lower-scoring games from both of these clubs Monday night.

Both are considerably better at generating offense than preventing chances against, and both like to play an uptempo style with some great finishers to put those chances generated in the net.

Vegas very realistically could have scored more against New Jersey, and although scoring just two against the Devils looks pretty pathetic, that happens. To completely adjust your thinking of the next game based on one result is not the way to win NHL bets.

We're seeing a lot of value for this game to get over 6. I would play over 6 all the way down to -150.

Pick: Over 6 (-125 | Play to -150)