NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Kraken (Thursday, March 14)
Via John McCreary/Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Miroshnichenko #63 of the Washington Capitals skates with the puck in the shootout during a pre-season game against the Detroit Red Wings at Capital One Arena on September 28, 2023 in Washington, D.C.
Capitals vs. Kraken Odds
| Capitals Odds | +150 |
| Kraken Odds | -180 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Capitals vs Kraken on Thursday, March 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Kraken will look to bounce back from a painful collapse Tuesday, as they blew a late two-goal lead in a critical matchup against the Knights. They have been in solid form at 5-3-2 over the last 10 games but will need something close to 16 wins in 18 games to steal a playoff berth.
This is a favorable spot for the Kraken as they face a Capitals team playing for the third time in four nights that arrived in Seattle late last night after yesterday's matchup in Edmonton.
Find my Capitals vs Kraken prediction and NHL betting preview below.
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The Capitals' five-game Western Conference road swing was tabbed as the make-or-break moment in their season by coach Spencer Carbery. To this point, it has been a disaster as they have been outscored 10-3.
They did not play very well last night in Edmonton but clearly could have managed more offensively. MoneyPuck's model claims the Caps generated 5.00 Expected Goals, while EvolvingHockey's model credits them with 3.50 Expected Goals For. I believe 3.50 is a more accurate number, but at even strength, the Capitals did offer better offensive play than the final score suggests.
Sonny Milano, Dylan Strome, and Ivan Miroshnichenko continue to show well together at even strength. Milano and Miroshnichenko's injections into the lineup have been two reasons for the Caps' improved offensive play of late.
The Capitals rank 29th in Goals For per game this season at 2.64. However, they have scored 3.75 Goals For per game over the last 12 matchups. They won't produce offense at that level moving forward, but their 3.24 xGF/60 in that span does show that this team is finding its legs offensively.
Charlie Lindgren will start for Washington in this matchup, and he has played to a +7.1 GSAx and .919 Save Percentage in 41 appearances.
The urgency in the Kraken's game has still been visible recently, but their shocking collapse in Tuesday's matchup can be viewed as the final nail in the coffin of their playoff hopes. After a surprising run to the second round last season, they are going to fall short.
The key reason for this year's shortcomings compared to last year is that their offensive play has taken a drastic turn for the worse. Last season the Kraken scored 3.52 goals for per game, which was the fourth-best mark in the league. Their historic even-strength shooting percentage suggested regression was on the horizon. Still, few would have expected them to plummet down to 28th in Goals For per game.
Matty Beniers and Andre Burakovsky have both contributed very little offensively after strong seasons a year ago. Letting Daniel Sprong walk looks like a disaster, as the rest of the bottom six has come down to earth. Still, we have likely seen the worst of it, and I don't view the Kraken as a 28th-rated offensive side moving forward.
Forwards
- Tomas Tatar – Matty Beniers* – Jordan Eberle
- Tye Kartye – Jared McCann – Andre Burakovsky*
- Eeli Tolvanen – Yanni Gourde– Oliver Bjorkstrand
- Kailer Yamamoto – Pierre Bellemare– Brandon Tanev
Here is how the Kraken lined up at yesterday's practice.
Two huge keys to improved offensive production will be seeing returns to form from Beniers and Burakovsky. Both netted goals Tuesday versus Vegas, and they have far more offensive talent than we have seen so far this season.
Top defender Vince Dunn is likely to return to the lineup for this matchup after being a full participant in Wednesday's practice. He adds some meaningful upside to the top power-play unit and is the Kraken's best puck-mover on the back end.
Joey Daccord will likely start in goal for the Kraken Thursday. He has played to a +7.1 GSAx and .919 Save Percentage across 41 games this season.
Capitals vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
Totals of 5.5 are quite rare this NHL season, and I'm not a believer that this spot calls for it despite the poor production both sides have offered thus far.
The Capitals got in to Seattle around 2 a.m. PT last night after finishing their late game in Edmonton, which could make them a softer target than usual in terms of handing out quality chances. Their recent offensive play was looking improved prior to dates in Winnipeg and Edmonton to start this brutal road trip, and I believe that strength could continue here in a more manageable matchup.
The Kraken have more offensive upside than we have seen throughout most of this season, as well. They can roll opponents with three lines that have some scoring talent, and if Burakovsky and Beniers continue to find their games, they will look somewhat closer to last season's offensive powerhouse.
Both teams are low-event sides, but I still believe 5.5 is too low of a total in this particular spot. Consequently, betting over 5.5 at anything better than -130 provides value.
I also don't see any reason not to go right back to Miroshnichenko to score at +550 after cashing at +700 last night. If he succeeds in the NHL, it will be based on his electric shot, and his unit was again the Capitals' best last night in Edmonton.
Pick: Over 5.5 -122 (FanDuel | Play to -130), Miroshnichenko Anytime Goal +550
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