NHL Prediction, Odds, Preview: Capitals vs Rangers Pick (Sunday, January 14)
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Capitals vs. Rangers Odds
| Capitals Odds | +180 |
| Rangers Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110o / -134u |
Here's everything you need to know about Capitals vs. Rangers on Sunday, Jan. 14 — our expert prediction and NHL preview for today.
The Capitals were missing Alex Ovechkin (lower body) on Saturday, but they still managed to squeak out a 3-2 victory over the Rangers. Let's discuss if we should expect different results in Sunday's rematch while previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Capitals vs. Rangers prediction.
That kind of narrow win has been instrumental in leading Washington to a somewhat respectable 20-14-6 record. If you simply judged the Capitals by their goal differential this year (-25), they would stand as the sixth-worst team in the league. They're even below the Eastern Conference basement-dwelling Ottawa Senators (-14) by that metric. However, Washington has been manufacturing points all year, posting a 13-1-6 record in one-goal games despite going 3-12 in contests decided by three or more goals.
It makes Washington a difficult team to evaluate because if you just look at the sum of its parts, there's not much to like. Although 90 NHL players have reached the 30-point milestone, none of them are employed by the Capitals. Ovechkin — whose status for Sunday's contest is undetermined — is the closest with 27 points. He's one of just three Capitals players with even 20 points this campaign.
It's not like the Capitals are deep offensively either, and as a consequence, they rank 30th offensively this year with 2.38 goals per game.
The goaltending situation is a mixed bag. They do have Charlie Lindgren, who improved to 8-3-3 with a 2.25 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 16 appearances this year after winning Saturday. However, the Capitals are unlikely to ask him to start two days in a row, so Darcy Kuemper, who holds a less impressive 10-10-2 record, 3.27 GAA and .891 save percentage will probably be deployed for the second half of the back-to-back.
An argument can be made that Lindgren has been what's elevated Washington this year from being one of the league's worst teams to competing for a wild-card spot, which makes Kuemper's projected presence in net a major red flag.
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The Rangers didn't have any trouble against Kuemper on Dec. 27, scoring five goals on 31 shots en route to a 5-1 victory. That was a particularly good game for New York, but the Rangers have enough scoring threats to give opposing goaltenders difficulty most of the time.
In contrast to Washington, which doesn't feature a single player with even 30 points, the Rangers have four forwards who have surpassed the 35-point mark, including Artemi Panarin, who has supplied 26 goals and 58 points in 41 outings. That's put the Rangers in a three-way tie for 10th offensively this year with 3.29 goals per game, which beats the Capitals' pace by nearly a full goal.
New York has dealt with troubles in net, though. Igor Shesterkin, who is projected to start Sunday after Jonathan Quick got the nod Saturday, has underperformed with a 16-10-0 record, 2.90 GAA and .901 save percentage in 26 appearances this year. At least that's better than what Kuemper's done, but it's still below what you'd expect from Shesterkin, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2022 and remained strong last season with a 37-13-8 record, 2.48 GAA and .916 save percentage in 58 starts.
Perhaps a game against the underwhelming Capitals offense will be good for Shesterkin, though that hasn't always been the case this year. He did save 26 of 27 shots in a 5-1 win against the Capitals on Dec. 27, but the netminder also allowed four goals on 29 shots in a loss to Washington on Dec. 9.
Capitals vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite Washington winning Saturday, oddsmakers are billing the Rangers as heavy favorites Sunday, to the extent that taking New York on FanDuel's moneyline offers a potential return of just -220. The series heading to New York likely enters into those calculations, but perhaps it shouldn't — neither the Rangers nor Capitals have seen a big edge in their record when at home compared to on the road this campaign.
Washington might also be regarded as worse than its record implies thanks to its poor analytics. On moneypuck, the Rangers' chances of winning are 72 percent. To put that into context, Dallas (with a record similar to the Rangers) was given a 70.8 percent chance of beating the lowly Blackhawks before Saturday's game, so it's fair to say not much is thought of Washington.
I like the Capitals a little more than oddsmakers or moneypuck's metrics seem to, but I'm still not confident enough in Washington to recommend taking them, even with that high potential return. Instead, I like the over of 6.5 goals. Kuemper hasn't been great and Shesterkin has struggled this campaign. It's true Washington's offense hasn't been great, but I think the shaky goaltending we're likely to see will do enough to compensate for that.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals +110 (Play to +100)
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