NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Rangers (Wednesday, December 27)
Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Artemi Panarin #10 of the New York Rangers skates with the puck against the Washington Capitals.
Capitals vs. Rangers Odds
| Capitals Odds | +180 |
| Rangers Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +112 / -138 |
We’re back from the Christmas break, and the New YorkRangers host the WashingtonCapitals. The Capitals fell in a shootout loss the night before the break, but prior to that won three in a row. They’ve had a weird season, but stand fourth in a surprisingly weak Metropolitan Division.
Conversely, New York has had an overtly dominant season. The Rangers entered the break winning four out of their last five games, and are tied for the second best record in the NHL, while standing in first in the Metro.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction between the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.
The Capitals are a bit of an anomaly. Once a team that thrived off scoring, is now a team that lacks it. While Alex Ovechkin is on his way to beating Wayne Gretzky’s goal record, he has an unlikely six goals in 31 games. Dylan Strome is the one who leads the team in goals, while Tom Wilson and Anthony Mantha aren’t too far behind.
In an unusual position, the Caps rank among the worst in 5-on-5 offense, ranking 25th expected goals with a 47.66 xGF%. Their defense isn’t horrible though, with a 2.74 xGA/60. It’s so perplexing seeing Washington being among the worst teams on the power play. It ranks fourth-worst, scoring at a 12.3% clip. At least the penalty kill makes up for it, succeeding 82% of the time.
Washington’s goaltending situation is a bit of a mixed bag. Darcy Kuemper has been called on for the majority of the starts, but it seems as if coach Spencer Carberry has more faith in Charlie Lindgren nowadays. Lindgren has posted exceptional numbers, playing to a .928 SV% and an elite +11.9 goals saved above expected.
The record speaks for itself, but the players have been a huge driving force to this early success. Artemi Panarin is playing like an MVP candidate, while Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are each chipping in more than enough. Former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox is a massive piece to this team, as he’s provided 11 points in his last 12 games.
For the past few years, the Rangers have consistently had weak 5-on-5 numbers. They’re 21st with a 48.76 xGF% and 22nd with a 2.79 xGA/60. What keeps them near the top of the standings is the goaltending and special teams. They have the best power play, scoring at a 31% rate, and the penalty kill is fifth at 85.7%.
Coming out of the break, I expect to see Igor Shesterkin in net tonight. Shesterkin hasn’t been himself, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a quality netminder. It’s just his current .906 SV% and +8.0 GSAx is a tad off from what we’re used to seeing from the former Vezina winner.
Capitals vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
What I’ve noticed about these two teams is that the Capitals often finds themselves in low scoring games and the Rangers are usually in high scoring games.
So, which way will tonight’s bout take us?
Well, I can see this game going under the allotted 6.5 total. While the Rangers are among the NHL’s elite, they still struggle 5-on-5. Yes, they have the league’s best power play, but what wasn’t mentioned was that Washington is among the most disciplined teams. It only averages 8.4 penalty minutes per game which is seventh best. Not to mention goaltending is a strength for both squads.
If the Capitals manage to stay out of the box, which the numbers say they do, we’ll have ourselves a low scoring match.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-138)
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