NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Senators (Wednesday, October 18)
Via Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals shoot against the Calgary Flames at Capital One Arena on October 16, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Capitals vs Senators Odds
| Capitals Odds | +142 |
| Senators Odds | -172 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -114 / -106 |
After delivering a pair of multi-goal wins to their fans at the Canadian Tire Centre over the weekend, the Ottawa Senators will be looking to keep the good vibes going as they continue a five-game homestand by hosting the Washington Capitals on Wednesday.
New coach Spencer Carbery and the Caps look to return to playoff contention and help Alex Ovechkin reach all-time goal-scoring record. The club showed some life on Monday by erasing a two-goal deficit to pick up a shootout win over the Calgary Flames.
That should give the Caps something to build off as they head north for a pair of games in Canada this week.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Capitals vs. Senators Wednesday night below.
After just two games, the Washington Capitals feel like they're already teetering on the edge of a crisis. They were embarrassed in a 4-0 loss to their rivals from Pittsburgh in their home opener on Friday, then they fell behind the Calgary Flames 2-0 on Monday before rallying to salvage a shootout win.
Washington's possession numbers at 5-on-5 through two games are the worst in the NHL, with an Expected Goals Share of just 35.6%. Special teams are also an issue: the power play is 0-for-6 so far while the penalty kill has allowed three goals in eight times shorthanded, for a Success Rate of just 62.5%.
And it wasn't Alex Ovechkin who fueled the comeback on Monday night — the captain is pointless and has lobbed an uncharacteristically low four shots on net in his first two games.
Instead, 25-year-old Matthew Phillips was the star of the show. The undersized right winger tallied his first-two NHL points of his career against his old organization — the Flames limited the undersized right winger to just three games over five seasons despite consistent production at the AHL level.
Revenge mission: accomplished.
Perhaps Phillips' heroics will light a spark under the rest of the team? Carbery juggled his lines at practice on Tuesday in an effort to get his group going, moving Ovechkin away from Nicklas Bäckstróm and T.J. Oshie onto a line with Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson, with corresponding changes rippling through the rest of the top nine.
Nic Dowd and John Carlson missed practice on Tuesday, but both were given maintenance days and are expected to play in Ottawa on Wednesday. Goaltender Charlie Lindgren remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury.
Expect to see Darcy Kuemper make his second start of the year after getting the win on Monday following the birth of his first child, with Clay Stevenson backing up. Kuemper helped give his team a chance to win on Monday, with 0.9 Goals Saved Above Expected on a 40-shot night. Then, he closed the door in three shootout rounds.
Over in Ottawa, the situation is decidedly rosier. With expectations of progression this season under new owner Michael Andlauer, the Sens have come out of the gate with a 2-1 record. They followed up a season-opening road loss in Carolina with matching 5-2 home wins against the Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Ottawa is sitting comfortably in the middle of the pack with an Expected Goals Share of 50.45%, the power play is a solid 3-for-11 (27.3%) and the penalty kill is 12-for-14 (85.7%).
The Sens are also getting balanced scoring. 10 players already have at least two points, and the team is led by heart-and-soul captain Brady Tkachuk, who has five points in the last two games.
Wednesday's game will mark the midpoint of a five-game homestand, and Ottawa should be well rested, having not played since Sunday.
Tim Stützle, who has started the season at a point-a-game pace, was absent from Tuesday's practice, but coach D.J. Smith said that he was taking a maintenance day. Josh Norris, who hasn't played in a game since Jan. 21, took full reps in a top-six role, but Smith says his status remains unchanged as far as getting into game action. It would be a surprise if he drew in against Washington.
In their first three games, the Senators have been alternating their netminders. If the pattern holds, it'll be Anton Forsberg's turn on Wednesday. He opened with 0.7 Goals Saved Above Expected in his season debut against Philadelphia.
Capitals vs. Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Senators appear to be in the driver's seat for Wednesday's game, and the betting lines reflect that. As favorites in the -160 to -170 range as of Tuesday evening, that's an implied win percentage of about 62%.
But I'd caution against expecting Ottawa to put up a third straight multi-goal win. A puck line as high as +150 is eye-catching, but the Sens will be dealing with a better goalkeeper in Kuemper than they faced against the Flyers or the Lightning.
The Caps were fine in preseason, going 3-2-1 and logging more than three goals a game. Their sluggish start is being skewed dramatically because they laid an egg against the Penguins, but Monday's comeback should steer Carbery's group onto a better track.
Look for a tight, low-scoring game, which makes Under 6.5 at +100 on DraftKings a tempting wager.
Don't expect Ovechkin or the power play to stay quiet forever; the captain is due for his first goal of the year.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+100); play down to -115
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