NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Devils vs Sabres (Friday, March 29)
Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesper Bratt (left) and Timo Meier (right).
Devils vs. Sabres Odds
| Devils Odds | -125 |
| Sabres Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres on Friday, March 29 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The latest Devils vs Sabres odds have the Devils as -125 favorites on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 6.5 total goals. My Devils vs Sabres prediction is on the Devils moneyline as I can quite wrap my ahead around the pricing for this game.
After all of the lows in a trying season, it's still a somewhat reasonable possibility that the Devils sneak into the playoffs. A 7-2 finish to the year would give New Jersey 90 points, which could potentially be enough to get a spot.
The Sabres aren't dead either, but they would likely need something closer to an 8-0-1 finish. Chances are they already blew it when they fell flat in a 6-2 loss to the Senators on Wednesday — this game is more about showing a positive response to the home faithful.
While firing Lindy Ruff was the right move, the Devils have not necessarily played better since Travis Green was promoted to head coach, playing to a record of 6-6-0.
The most notable change is that Green has been afforded the luxury of above-average goaltending, which Ruff essentially never got this season. In 12 games since Green's arrival, Devils goaltenders have combined to a .911 save %.
If the Devils come up a hair short of the playoffs, general manager Tom Fitzgerald should feel frustrated and foolish that he didn't trade for goaltending earlier on, though Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen have played to solid results.
The main reason to consider backing the Devils right now is not necessarily because Green has them playing a sharper team game. Over the last 10 games, the Devils have played to a 48.19% expected goal share and still look like a side that is prone to making costly errors in the worst areas of the ice.
Lots of that isn't Green's fault. Luke Hughes has struggled badly in the back half of the season and would be receiving lofty deployment under any coaching staff. With Dougie Hamilton out for the season and Jonas Siegenthaler sidelined, the Devils' blue line is far from what it was last year.
New Jersey's offensive upside still looks good though, particularly as Timo Meier has trended into top form playing at full health. Meier, who leads the NHL with 13 goals in March, forms a high quality top unit with Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt.
Allen, the Devils' starting goaltender for this game, has played to a +1.3 GSAx and .900 save % across 20 appearances this season.
Bowen Byram seems to be offering a positive voice in the Sabres' locker room while bringing an added level of competitiveness to a team that needs it. Byram should prove to be a quality acquisition for a player who was always likely to leave town in Casey Mittelstadt.
With that said, the Sabres have been badly outplayed since that trade. Their defensive core remains pretty suspect, even with Byram's addition to the top pairing.
In 11 games since Byram's arrival, the Sabres have played to an xGF% of just 43.99, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. They have allowed 30.21 shots against per game and 3.68 xGA/60. They hold a breakeven goal differential in that span and a record of 5-5-0.
Mittelstadt left a significant hole on the roster as he was the Sabres' top point producer this season. Dylan Cozens should be able to effectively fill the hole as the second-line center moving forward, though he continues to offer surprisingly bad form this season.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen finally ran out of gas on Wednesday as he was unable to get out of the first period of play. The Sabres are opting to start their other talented young netminder in Devon Levi in this game as a result. Levi has played to a +8.4 GSAx and .898 save % in 22 appearances this season.
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Devils vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Devils own better underlying numbers than the Sabres of late. That should not necessarily be surprising as New Jersey's roster still rates out as the superior one. Neither of these team have displayed overly strong defensive play recently, but the Devils have far superior offensive upside when true to form.
With the Devils now getting steady goaltending from Allen, it is hard for me to see why this game is priced as closely as it is. This hardly counts as a road game for the Devils, who have had minimal travel over the last week. They have played to a better record on the road than at home over the entirety of the season, too.
Buffalo has played to a worse record at home and the atmosphere at the KeyBank Center was pretty sad on Tuesday. We know the Sabres will be desperate to put together a better showing for their home fans, but that shouldn't scare us off from betting on a superior Devils team, especially considering no statistics actually suggest the pricing in this game makes sense.
Pick: New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-125; bet365 | Play to -135)
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