NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Ducks vs Blues (Sunday, March 17)
Ducks vs. Blues Odds
| Ducks Odds | +180 |
| Blues Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Anaheim Ducks vs. St. Louis Blues on Sunday, March 17 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
With three straight wins the Blues are only four points back of a Wild Card spot ahead of this soft matchup. They face a depleted Ducks team that has lost five straight games by two or more goals Sunday.
A win here would keep the Blues' faint playoff hopes alive, and they are massive -218 favorites to grab the desperately needed two points. Even in a back-to-back spot St. Louis is the second largest favorite it has been all season, which suggests there might be some overreaction to the idea that it simply can not lose this matchup.
The Ducks current five game losing streak has been the worst stretch of play of their entire season. There are always going to be some growing pains for a developing young team, but non-competitive games are never what management is looking to see.
Greg Cronin will look to get his side back playing the right way down the stretch, as they head into an important offseason. They have played to a 37.83% expected goal share over the last 15, and own a record of 5-9-1 in those games. They have allowed 3.48 xGA/60 over that span.
The Ducks have played most of their post All-Star Break matchups with several NHL regulars missing from the lineup. Their injury report is currently better than it has been at times though. Particularly if any of Leo Carlsson, Radko Gudas, or Trevor Zegras return for this game.
Anaheim felt comfortable trading away a high quality defensive prospect in Jamie Drysdale because of how many quality young defenders are in the system. Even with Radko Gudas sidelined, I do think their current core has the upside to play better than we have seen.
Expected Defense Pairings:
Fowler- Zellweger
Vaakananein – Lindstrom
Mintyukov – LaCombe
Owen Zellweger has shown flashes of brilliance at the NHL level, and he should trend into better form the rest of the way. Mintyukov has had a stellar rookie season, ranking first in the league with an 85.2% zone exit with possession rating.
Lukas Dostal is expected to get the start in this game. He has played to a -3.9 GSAx and .900 save % across 30 appearances.
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The Blues have never been an analytical darling in recent years, and that certainly remains true of late. Even if you only loosely believe in expected goals as an indicator of anything, their 44.92% expected goal share over the last 15 games should be concerning. They have allowed 3.57 xGA/60 over that span. Despite a .917 save %, they have still managed to put up a record of only 7-7-1.
The eye-test would tell you their recent defensive play has been far from great. Colton Parayko's lack of any kind of mobility leaves a glaring hole on the top defensive pairing. Torey Krug and Justin Faulk are both clearly far from what they once were as well, and the Blues defensive core is simply a weakness at this point.
Joel Hofer is confirmed as the Blues starter in this matchup. He has played to a +8.6 GSAx and .913 save percentage in 24 appearances this season.
Ducks vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Blues are still a fairly one dimensional side offensively, and their current three-game winning streak is likely to be somewhat of a high point. They are obviously worthy of being a favorite, but -215 is too long given the way the gameplay in this one is likely to play out.
The Ducks are in their worst stretch of the season in terms of actual results. They have faced several strong teams in good form, and have lost five straight in multi-goal fashion. Still, I do not view what they currently have as a comically bad roster. In time, we should see some level of stabilization.
The Ducks still have some offensive pieces who can cause problems for a suspect Blues defensive core in this back-to-back spot. Dostal has the ability to steal games when given the right support, and there is still more than enough talent left for Cronin's crew to play at higher level defensively than they have to start this road trip.
This sets up as a classic buy-low sell-high spot, and it reminds me a lot of when the Blues lost 1-0 at home versus Columbus to snap a lengthy winning streak in January. The Blues weren't playing as well as their results suggested then, which you can say again right now well now. St. Louis is still still slightly closer to the bottom of the league than it seems considering the true level of parity in the NHL.
It's pretty unpleasant to back the Ducks right now, but the current betting price of +180 is too long to pass up. Anything better than +165 is a play for me. If the Ducks get some combination of Zegras, Carlsson, and Gudas back, I would go slightly wider.
Pick: Ducks ML (+180 | Play to +165)
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