Flames vs Blackhawks Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) Pictured: Connor Bedard
- Nicholas Martin looks over the Flames vs. Blackhawks odds and make a NHL betting prediction.
- Continue reading for Martin's Flames vs. Blackhawks best bet tonight.
Flames vs. Blackhawks Odds
| Flames Odds | -180 |
| Blackhawks Odds | +147 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110/-110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday, March 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Blackhawks have managed a surprising 5-5-0 run over their past 10, but it's worth noting that all five of those wins came against other lottery teams. However, that's exactly what the Flames are at this point. Calgary has lost three straight and suddenly ranks 23rd in the NHL.
So, let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Flames vs. Blackhawks pick.
The Flames didn't drop off the way some may have expected after trading away star forward Elias Lindholm. But, they have really fallen apart since dealing Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin.
In the 10 games played without Tanev and Hanifin, the Flames are just 3-7-0 and own a -14 goal differential. They have also played to an xGF% of 49.04 in those 10 matchups.
The Flames' core has underperformed its expected goals data in recent years, which makes sense given the lack of true scoring talent remaining on the roster.
The Flames recent run would surely be improved if Jacob Markstrom hadn't gone down with injury, but it's clear he will be playing in a worse defensive environment than he was earlier in the season.
Markstrom will likely get the start in this matchup and has 15.3 GSAx and a .909 save percentage across 42 appearances this season.
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The Flames are just settling in to the whole idea of playing for pride, but that has been the case for months in Chicago. The challenge for Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson is to continue bringing his young side along the right way.
Luke Richardson on today's bag skate: "I know we skipped out of the game luckily on top…but we weren't happy with our performance in two games. That's just not professional enough for me. You have to do it every day. Sometimes that's the way the game is played: up and down the… https://t.co/4gRDQqGr3F
— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) March 25, 2024
That sort of thing doesn't mean a lot from a handicapping perspective, but it is encouraging to see a coach of a team in Chicago's position demanding so much, even after a victory.
What's more encouraging is that the Blackhawks have played well of late. They own a 52.83% expected goal share over their past 10 games, and have a league average 3.06 xGA/60 in that span.
It slides under the radar because the Blackhawks were always going to finish in the bottom three this season, but Chicago did suffer through one of the leagues worst injury situations in January and February. Playing at closer to full strength has been a big part of the improved form.
As of writing, it is unclear whether Chicago will start Petr Mrazek or Arvid Soderblom in goal for this matchup. The final decision is meaningful from a handicapping perspective as Mrazek owns a -1.3 GSAx in 49 appearances, while Soderblom owns a -18.0 in 27 appearances.
Flames vs. Blackhawks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Markstrom should get this start and will offer a notable edge in goal, but aside from that, we should feel confident that the Blackhawks can play to their long price tag on home ice.
The Blackhawks own better play-driving numbers recently than the Flames, and the pure roster talent of these two sides is not nearly as far off as it once was.
It's also interesting to consider that at 14-22 straight up at home (41.70% moneyline winning percentage) the Hawks would be profitable to a price of +160 over the entirety of the season.
FanDuel is offering the Blackhawks to win at +160 and I believe there is value in betting the underdogs at that price. Anything better than +150 is a play for me in this matchup if Mrazek starts. If it's Soderblom, I'd play this to +160.
Some might want to wait and see who is starting in net for Chicago, but sharp money might drive the price down prior to confirmation. If that happens, you may get stuck betting the Blackhawks in the +140 range.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks +160 (FanDuel, Play to +150)
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