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Flames vs Flyers NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Flames vs Flyers NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions article feature image
Credit:

Gerry Thomas/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob Markstrom.

  • The Flyers host the Flames on Monday night.
  • Calgary put forth a strong effort on Saturday night and our expert believes that could be a sign of things to come.
  • Nicholas Martin previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Flames vs. Flyers Odds

Flames Odds -1
Flyers Odds +1
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV SNF, NBCS-PH
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Saturday’s shootout win over Matthew Tkachuk and the Florida Panthers could certainly be a turning point for the Calgary Flames, who have underachieved in the early going and are just 9-7-2.

After a surprisingly strong start to the campaign, Philadelphia has lost six consecutive games, including a stunning collapse Saturday night in Montreal.

Will Calgary build on Saturday’s massive win and avoid a letdown game Monday against a notably poor Flyers side?

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Calgary Flames

It’s easy to make an argument Calgary could be one of the teams most due for an upswing in the next month or two.

It’s a case I made Saturday entering a tough matchup with Florida, and a number of meaningful narratives suggest Calgary may prove to be one of the NHL’s best sides moving forward.

The Flames have played arguably the NHL’s toughest schedule thus far, and have faced off against sides averaging 8.4th place in the standings over the past 11 games.

Calgary has controlled play to a 53.12 xGF% over those 11 contests. So, even considering the tough schedule, Calgary was realistically unlikely to find such poor results.

Adam Ruzicka has absolutely thrived on Calgary’s top unit alongside Tyler Toffoli and Elias Lindholm. That trio has controlled play to a 61.7% expected goals for rate in 53.3 minutes together.

Ruzicka put up two huge goals and an assist against Florida, and has posted eight points in his past six games. If Ruzicka can continue to occupy that role effectively, the Flames may end up with three notably well-balanced lines.

Jonathan Huberdeau hasn’t been in strong form when healthy this season, but if he can start to chip in more reasonable form on the third line, alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, Calgary’s lineup starts to look very formidable.

Part of Calgary’s struggles are also due to it’s depleted defensive core. However, the return of Chris Tanev has clearly made a difference.

Tanev posted the Flames top xGF% Saturday versus the Panthers (66.6%) and has suppressed opposing offense at an elite level all season.

Jacob Markstrom has struggled to start this campaign, but came up with some crucial saves Saturday versus Florida.

My assumption is he will be given a chance to follow that performance on Monday, but confirmation of the Flames starter will come after Monday’s morning skate.


Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia owns the league’s third worst xGA/60 rating at 40.84%, which is to be expected based upon its notably thin roster.

Travis Konecny has been fantastic this season with 19 points in 17 games, but is listed as day-to-day and could remain sidelined for this contest. Scott Laughton was injured Saturday versus Montreal, and will likely miss this matchup.

The Flyers have been getting outplayed over their six game losing streak, and a turnaround in form seems very unlikely considering the talent on hand.

Carter Hart has been masterful with a +14.3 goals saved above expected rating and a .922 save % in 13 games this season. He’ll likely make the start Monday.

Flames vs. Flyers Pick

Calgary finally broke through with a road victory on Saturday as a +115 underdog versus an elite Florida Panthers side.

My belief entering that contest was all signs indicated Calgary was due for an upswing based on what had been a quietly strong process. It came all the way down to a shootout, but the Flames got it done.

Calgary finally gets to play some significantly below average competition in the Philadelphia Flyers, who have trended downhill significantly after a strong start to the season.

That makes this a perfect spot for the Flames to continue rolling.

If Calgary plays at it’s highest level, that should mean domination in five-on-five play Monday night, and if Jacob Markstrom can build on Saturday’s big performance, it should be an easy win for the Flames.

At -125 for the Flames to win in regulation, I believe we have a very safe play. However, looking for Calgary to cover some alt-lines such as -2.5 and -3.5 is interesting to me as well.

The Flames have blown a ton of leads of late, but are significantly less likely to manage such a feat against the Flyers. If Calgary gets up early, we should see the Flames remain relentless. I actually the blown leads narrative works in our favor toward some long prices on -2.5, -3.5.

Pick: Calgary Flames Regulation Win (3-way) -125 (Play to -140), Smaller plays -2.5, -3.5

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