NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs Jets (Thursday, April 4)
Gerry Thomas/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Calgary Flames celebrate
Flames vs. Jets Odds
| Flames Odds | +176 |
| Jets Odds | -215 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -122 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. Winnipeg Jets on Thursday, April 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Ironically, the Calgary Flames are ready to rain on everybody's parade. Although it's not a mathematical certainly, the Flames are a virtual lock to miss the postseason for the second year in a row. Still, there are auditions occurring for next year's roster, and that has brought out the best the Flames have to offer.
Playing their best hockey down the stretch isn't a characteristic Calgary shares with its opponent on Thursday night. The Winnipeg Jets have struggled to stay competitive, dropping six of its last seven. As a result, the Jets have fallen out of the running for the top spot in the Central Division and are just trying to avoid getting relegated to a wild card spot.
The betting market may be high on the Jets, but we're not. Based on the current offerings, there's an edge in backing the Flames in Thursday's Western Conference tilt.
As good as the Flames have looked, their most recent effort was a pretty crushing defeat. Calgary gift-wrapped a win for the lowly Anaheim Ducks, representing its sixth loss over its last seven games. However, those losses are in stark contrast to their on-ice efforts, implying the Flames are progression candidates before the end of the season.
Calgary has put together some elite efforts against playoff-bound opponents over its recent sample. Over their last seven games, the Flames have compiled a 52.5% expected goals-for rating while outplaying all but two of those opponents. They've out-skated the Washington Capitals, Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings across that sample, highlighting the Flames' ability to keep pace with the best the NHL has to offer.
As expected, there's another component to the Flames' metrics supporting they're due for better outcomes. Their 40.0% actual goals-for rating is 12.5% lower than expected while their .958 PDO is third-worst in the NHL. Both of those indicators should start inching up, reflecting Calgary's on-ice dominance.
We're expecting those metrics to start balancing out on Thursday night, giving the Flames a leg up on Winnipeg.
Of course, the Jets can't get out of their own way either. Winnipeg has been outplayed in two of its last four games and four of eight, reducing their expected goals-for rating to 49.8% over that stretch. Everything appears to be collapsing in on itself, leaving Winnipeg nowhere to hide in either end of the ice.
The Jets' issues start in their own end. Three of their last six opponents have exceeded 11 high-danger chances, eroding Connor Hellebuyck's league-best metrics. Since March 23, Hellebuyck's save percentage has dipped to 87.8%, dragging his goals-against average down 4.27 to with it. Predictably, the Jets' netminder is 0-4-1 across that sample.
But their issues don't end there. Winnipeg has faced an equally daunting task in the attacking zone. Their production has been intermittent, and their output is on the decline, compounding the deteriorating metrics in their own end. Using the same five-game span, the Jets have been held to 9.4 high-danger chances per game and one or fewer goals at 5-on-5 in three of those outings.
Nothing is going the Jets' way right now, and that makes them undeserving of the -200 price tag against an upstart Flames squad.
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Flames vs. Jets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Winnipeg may be the superior team in the standings, but their recent on-ice play leaves a lot to be desired. Although the Flames can't boast about more wins lately, they do have superior underlying metrics supporting renewed success before the end of the regular season.
On that basis, we're backing the Flames to walk away victorious as +176 underdogs versus the Jets. And we'll play this at +155 or better.
Pick: Flames (+176 at FanDuel) | Play to +155
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