Flames vs Kings Preview, Prediction: NHL Odds
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Daccord #35 of the Seattle Kraken pokes the puck away from Kevin Fiala #22 of the Los Angeles Kings.
Flames vs. Kings Odds
| Flames Odds | +130 |
| Kings Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105 / -115 |
The easiest way for the Calgary Flames to get back in the Western Conference playoff picture is to make the most of their divisional matchups. That continues Saturday night as they travel for a pivotal showdown against the Los Angeles Kings.
Calgary enters the contest on the strength of improved defensive efforts, structure that will be relied upon to limit the Kings' above-average offense. LA can match that intensity in what should be one of the lowest scoring contests of the evening.
We don't expect these teams to bring playoff intensity in the middle of December, but we do expect them to be ready to compete for two crucial points. So, let's get to the Flames vs. Kings preview.
Personnel issues continue to prevent the Flames from reaching their full potential, but we are getting more sincere efforts from them lately. Defensive responsibility has been at the forefront of those improvements and a hallmark of Calgary's systems over the past few regimes. Although coaches have had a hard time extracting maximum offensive value, there's been no concerns with their play in their own end.
The Flames are suffocating opponents in the defensive zone, asserting themselves as a pre-eminent defensive power. Calgary has held four of their past five opponents to seven or fewer high-danger and and 23 or fewer scoring opportunities. On average, opposing teams have mustered just 6.2 and 21.2 chances, respectively, over the five-game sample. Moreover, that's sprung the Flames up the defensive rankings, moving them into the top half of the league in high-danger chances allowed.
Still, improved structure in their own end has done nothing to quell concerns regarding their offensive productivity. Calgary has middling production metrics, sitting 15th in scoring and 10th in high-danger chances, resulting in the 14th ranked expected goals-for. Those concerns are clearly illustrated over their recent sample, with the former Atlanta squad failing to surpass seven quality chances in any of their last five contests.
Worse, they've had no success in translating those opportunities into goals. The Flames have the 21st-rated shooting percentage at 5-on-5, falling to 23rd across all strengths. Without improved production, it's unlikely we see a substantial increase in output any time soon.
The Kings can relate to the Flames' early season struggles, albeit on a much less pronounced scale. LA has lost four of its previous six, eroding their position in the Pacific Division standings. Before wins start to follow, the Kings need to get their metrics in order and we're starting to see improvement in their underlying metrics over their last few games.
Los Angeles went through a bit of a dry spell earlier in the month. Over a span of six games from December 3 until December 13, the Kings posted an expected goals-for rating below 50.0% on three occasions. Since then, they've outplayed their opponents in three straight, posting a cumulative 61.3% expected goals-for rating. Still, LA only won two of those three games, with only one of those outcomes being decided by more than one goal.
Further, we've seen some inspired defensive efforts from the Kings as they try to get back on track. Only one of their last five opponents has attempted more than eight high-danger and 21 scoring chances. Those metrics will only improve as they settle in to play six of their next seven at home.
It's time for the pendulum to start swinging the other direction for the Kings. They aren't as bad as we've seen over the last six games, and wins should start flowing more naturally now that they've got their analytics in order.
Flames vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams play a robust defensive brand of hockey, showcasing the best of their abilities over their recent samples. The Flames are shutting down opponents recently, a standard that has become synonymous with the Kings. However, Calgary lacks the offensive punch to keep pace with their superior hosts on Saturday night.
We're expecting the Kings to prevail in a low-scoring affair, taking a firm stance on both plays.
Pick: Kings (-155 via BetMGM), Under 6.5 (-130 via PointsBet)
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