Flyers vs Canadiens Preview: NHL Odds, Prediction
(Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images) Pictured: Travis Konecny
Flyers vs. Canadiens Odds
| Flyers Odds | -135 |
| Canadiens Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110/-110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, April 9 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Flyers have blown what was once a stranglehold on a playoff berth with their recent 0-5-2 skid. The season is far from over though, and a 4-0 finish could still be enough to grab the final wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens are in the midst of a three-game losing skid and have allowed 16 goals against over that span. So, let's get to my Flyers vs. Canadiens preview.
The Flyers' shocking winless streak has tanked their playoff odds down to 25% per MoneyPuck, and to 18.2% per Bet365.
Their goaltending has been a mess since Carter Hart was charged with sexual assault. Over the past 18 games, the Flyers have registered a team save percentage of just .848 — the worst mark in the league over that span.
What's not being talked about is Philadelphia's paltry 7.5% shooting percentage in that span.
Those marks combine for a PDO of only 92.3 over a sample of 18 games. Maybe the goaltending situation won't improve, but it seems quite likely that the offense is due to see more goals.
Over the past 10 games, the Flyers have generated 3.22 xGF/60, a league-average mark. At this point, it might be foolish to count on the Flyers powerplay to turn things around, but there is enough scoring talent in the lineup to believe their even strength shooting percentage will rebound.
Captain Sean Couturier is probable to return to the lineup for tonight's game. We would likely see Denis Gurianov come out of the lineup if that is the case, as Olle Lycksell had a solid showing in Columbus on Saturday.
Samuel Ersson has been confirmed as the Flyers starter for this matchup and has played to a -7.0 GSAx and an .889 save percentage over 47 appearances this season.
It's clear that the Canadiens have not quit on coach Martin St. Louis. His young roster has continued to display a professional work-rate in the season's final third. Most importantly, it has been the players who are important to the team moving forward — such as Juraj Slafkovsky and Kaiden Guhle — who have displayed strong play down the stretch.
Still, a lack of meaningful play driving talent down the lineup card has led to poor results. Over the past 10 games, the Canadiens have played to a 41.13% expected goal share. They have allowed 3.91 xGA/60 in those matchups, the third-highest mark in the league.
The Canadiens blue-line is suffering through two meaningful absences with Guhle and Arber Xhekaj both on the Injured Reserve. Guhle took today's morning skate in a non-contact jersey and remains day-to-day, while Xhekaj underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.
Samuel Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens starter for this matchup. He has played to a 3.6 GSAx and a .904 save percentage across 38 appearances this season.
Flyers vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Canadiens have allowed the seventh-most goals against in the league this season. Their defensive play has been improved in the back-half, but is still well below average, and takes a hit with Guhle sidelined.
At -140, I don't mind betting the Flyers moneyline. However, BetRivers is offering -137 for the Flyers to record over three goals (push on three), which I believe is a better way to back the Flyers in this spot.
Pick: Flyers Over 3 Goals -137 (BetRivers, Play to -145)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
